Fight Picks and Predictions for UFC 129: Best Of All Time

By Nicholas Bailey

It's the biggest event in UFC history. It has two world title fights featuring undeniably elite fighters, including the pound-for-pound greatest fighter alive, in terms of level and amount of competition beaten, Georges St. Pierre. It has former champs galore, as well as some up-and-coming fighters and some guys that are just solid challenges to anyone you put them up against. If you aren't hyped up for UFC 129, you're on the wrong website, because you aren't an MMA fan.


Champ Georges St-Pierre (-400) vs. Jake Shields (+315) (for welterweight title)


This is a huge fight, and a very important one, with the elite of the elite challenging each other, and the greatest active fighter trying to further burnish his legacy, but when it comes down to it, it's not a particularly interesting fight. The style matchup is very predictable and unfavorable, and even if an upset does occur, it will happen in a very unsurprising way.

Simply put, Jake Shields is at a massive stylistic disadvantage against someone with the takedown defense and strategic discipline GSP brings to every fight. Shields is very, very good at one thing. He's one of the few fighters that is legitimately a submission threat to anyone, and he has good enough wrestling to back it up and avoid getting completely embarrassed most of the time. On the other hand, he does have glaring weaknesses which will probably be prominently displayed in this fight.

First and foremost, Shields has below-average standup for an MMA fighter, let alone an elite MMA fighter. Beyond simply seeming uncoordinated and stiff when he's striking, he seems actually afraid of getting hit. Usually this isn't a problem, because he can force a grappling match, but someone with the kind of distance control GSP brings into the cage is going to eat him alive.

Secondly, Shields doesn't seem to have elite-level cardio. This hasn't kept him from winning recently, since he's been finishing more fights, and his technical skills mean opponents wear out much more quickly than he does, since they are forced to counter technique and position with strength and exertion. GSP is not going to get stuck underneath Shields and wear himself out, and it's going to be very hard for shields to snatch up a submission early and polish off the champion.

Georges is the complete package, with every tool a fighter could want, but he also employs them with the prudence of a veteran champion. He comes into every fight with a gameplan that carefully protects him from his opponent's offensive tools, and he executes it with machine-like discipline. In this fight he will almost assuredly start off by forcing a striking battle with Shields, and only work takedowns in the early rounds if Shields stands up straighter and goes into a pure kickboxing mode. As the fight progresses, GSP might mix in a few takedowns simply to keep Shields off-balance, but he will stand right back up if he cannot keep Shields on the defensive by aggressively working to pass.

Beyond his preternatural ability to hit takedowns, Georges is a very good positional grappler. He is one of the nastiest guard-passers this side of Hatsu Hioki, and he is exceptionally difficult to sweep. In that respect, Shields is going to have real trouble on the ground with him. However, Georges has shown that he doesn't have the deep technical understanding of submissions that a fighter like Shields has. He can avoid submissions through his reflexes and suberb positioning, but, as we saw against Dan Hardy, he doesn't know every submission inside and out, and can give lesser fighters openings to escape or reverse him. Shields is the kind of guy that knows a dozen counters for every escape, so if Georges does slip up and get into a bad position, Shields does have a chance. Too bad Georges almost never slips up.

Shields does have a slim chance of scoring the upset, since he's become such a potent submission finisher. If Georges gets carried away with domination, he could leave his neck out for a guillotine and get finished, but it's supremely unlikely. Shields will have a very small window to capitalize, since he'll be too tired and beat up to threaten in the late rounds, and Georges won't be engaging in grappling in the early going.

This fight has a good chance of rehabilitating Georges reputation, as he could score a dominant finish against a fighter that doesn't have the striking chops he does and is less durable than a monster like Fitch, Penn, or Alves. This has a good chance of looking like the second Hughes fight, with Georges simply running over a fighter that can't measure up to him standing. Only in MMA could such a necessary, well-matched fight between elite competitors be such a mis-match. GSP by TKO round 2.


Champ Jose Aldo (-455) vs. Mark Hominick (+355) (for featherweight title)


Mark Hominick is a technician. Jose Aldo is a killer. That's going to be the difference here. Hominick has some of the best striking technique to be found anywhere in MMA, but unless he can really fold someone in half with a body shot, he has trouble polishing off opponents. Jose Aldo is the kind of fighter that explodes into a finish given the slightest opening. Even though Hominick is a very tough fighter and has never been stopped by strikes, he's probably going to get finished here. If Aldo cracks him and wobbles him, the beating isn't going to stop until Hominick is done.

Hominick will make a fight of it, but unless he can land the best body shot of his life, he's not going to stop Aldo, and it's hard to believe Hominick is capable of doing enough damage to keep Aldo from being dangerous throughout the fight.

The one wrinkle to this fight that's really hard to predict is Aldo's submission game. He comes from a camp of elite grapplers, all his training partners say he has a very good grappling game, but he has hardly shown it. Hominick is a skilled grappler, but he has shown vulnerabilities to submissions in the past. It will be very interesting to see what happens if this fight turns into a grappling match, but it's not likely to go much further than Aldo taking the back and pounding away for a stoppage if Hominick gets hurt and goes down. Jose Aldo by TKO round 3.


Jason Brilz (-115) vs. Vladimir Matyushenko (-105)


Who would have imagined that Jason Brilz would be facing off against Vladimir Matyushenko on the main card of the biggest UFC event of 2011? It's hard to believe. Like most wrestler vs. wrestler fights, this is going to come down to who is the superior wrestler. Matyushenko is vastly more experienced, and his striking is more fluid, so if he can control Brilz in the fight, he can win. Matyushenko is also getting to be an old man, so if Brilz can put him on his back, he'll wear out and Brilz will walk out the winner. In this case, the wrestling will probably be a wash, so Matyushenko's experience and striking acumen will be enough to win a close decision. Matyushenko by Decision.


Randy Couture (+275) vs. Lyoto Machida (-325)


Randy Couture is a brittle old man. The guy who gutted through bloody wars with elite fighters is gone. He is still a formidable wrestler, but he doesn't have the toughness anymore, and his overall game is showing its age now as well, looking limited and old-fashioned where it used to be versatile and progressive.

This is a fight that will make Machida look good. Couture doesn't have the chops to hold Machida down, he'll get punished every time he closes the distance, and even if he does fight into a clinch, Machida is very good there. The big problem Couture will have is closing the distance. Simply put, Machida wants to fight from far outside, countering if opponents try to reach him with strikes, and moving away if they try to clinch with him. Couture has long relied on some basic boxing to get in close, and those punches are going to open him up to crushing counters. Machida will avoid, avoid, avoid, but when Couture slips up with his footwork and lets Machida put a solid one across his chin, Lyoto is going to flip the switch and go for the kill. The contrast in “The Dragon” is quite stark. While he bides his time and has very little offensive output for most of a fight, when he hurts an opponent, he goes berserk trying for the finish. Couture is creaky enough now that he'll lose his equillibrium after one or two hard counters, and Lyoto will be all over him from there. Lyoto Machida by TKO round 1.


Mark Bocek (+110) vs. Ben Henderson (-125)


This is one of those fights where each man is well-suited to exploit the other's vulnerabilities, so it should provide some real interesting action and probably a finish. Bocek has really gotten his grappling game rolling in MMA, showing that he can threaten anyone, regardless of their pedigree on the floor, but he is an average wrestler and doesn't have the level of striking or overall fitness that most fighters bring to the cage in the modern era. Benson Henderson is a terrific athlete and wrestler, who is widely revered for his ability to escape all kinds of submission attempts. Unfortunately for Benson, that means that he tends to end up in lots of bad positions, because otherwise he wouldn't have had chances to show off all his nifty escapes.

It's going to be very hard for Bocek to deal with the wrestling or endurance of Henderson, and conversely it's going to be tough for Henderson to overcome the grappling advantage of Bocek, or escape submissions applied with such a high level of technical skill. If Henderson fights intelligently, trying to stay on the feet and wear Bocek down, he should be able to cruise to victory, although Bocek has the wrestling chops to create scrambles that could let him take threatening positions, especially since Henderson has such a tendency to get wild in his fights. This will be an entertaining scrap that could catapult the winner into contender status and doom the loser to undercard fights. Benson Henderson by decision.


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Nate Diaz (-110) vs. Rory MacDonald (-115)


This is going to be a complete dogfight. Rory MacDonald had some of the wind come out of his sails after a late-fight loss to Carlos Condit, but he remains a fighter to watch in the division, and a fantastically exciting one at that. The book is out on Diaz and his tendency to get trapped on his back, and MacDonald has the ground and pound to punish him for that kind of weakness, but may be wary of going to the ground with a skilled grappler, after what happened with Condit. In any case, fans should expect two-way violence, lots of blood, and a very competitive fight. If MacDonald can't hold it together throughout the fight, Diaz will submit him. If Rory keeps his head in the game and doesn't wear out, he will probably do enough damage and maintain enough good positions to beat Diaz up for a decision. Rory MacDonald by decision.


Jake Ellenberger (-200) vs. Sean Pierson (+175)


Pierson tap-danced on the face of a very green Matt Riddle in his last outing, but he is in for a much bigger challenge from Jake Ellenberger. Jake's striking isn't much more refined than Riddle's, but he's a much harder hitter and a far superior wrestler. Pierson is going to get dumped on his head and beat up, and that's all there is to it. Jake Ellenberger by decision.


PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook)
Claude Patrick (-150) vs. Daniel Roberts (+125)


This should be a thrilling, but one-sided grappling match. Roberts is a better wrestler and submission fighter, and should be able to find a submission on Patrick, provided he steers clear of the nasty guillotine Patrick always has in his back pocket. Roberts may not ever become a great fighter, but he's already a great grappler, so he will always be a threat to fighters like Patrick that rely on their submission skills. Daniel Roberts by submission round 1.

I think that Roberts is undervalued here, being overlooked because he's not a particularly great MMA fighter in a fight where all that will matter are his grappling abilities. Patrick has a chance of guillotining him or beating him up on the feet, so I wouldn't make a huge play, but there is value here.


Ivan Menjivar (-185) vs. Charlie Valencia (+155)


This fight sees Menjivar trying to regain some mainstream traction, this being the third fight in his return to MMA after a multi-year sabbatical. Valencia is a tough opponent, but he's the kind of tough journeyman that should challenge but not threaten a talent like Menjivar. Valencia's submission defense will be his downfall here, as Menjivar works a very dangerous grappling game in an action-packed fight. Ivan Menjivar by submission, round 2.


Jason MacDonald (+105) vs. Ryan Jensen (-120)


MacDonald makes his return to the UFC after a gruesome break to his leg that put him on the shelf for about a year, and he does so in a fight that is very winnable. MacDonald doesn't have the durability to be an elite fighter, but he is a skilled grappler and can probably find a submission on Ryan Jensen, who really seems like he needs to iron out some kinks in his grappling game if he wants to stick around in the UFC. He probably won't get the chance, and will get the boot after losing here. Jason MacDonald by submission, round 2.


John Makdessi (-200) vs. Kyle Watson (+160)


Makdessi needs a lot more experience to stick around in the UFC's lightweight division, but someone at Zuffa must think the fighter has real potential, as he's being given a light touch with some TUF leftovers in this fight. Makdessi should be too much for Watson, who simply isn't a UFC-level competitor. Makdessi by TKO round 3.


Pablo Garza (+140) vs. Yves Jabouin (-165)


Garza surprised everyone (including himself) with his horrifying flying knee knockout of Fredson Paixao, but he will struggle to get that lucky against a striker like Yves Jabouin. Jabouin will be Garza's ticket out of the UFC, and will get back on the developmental track he belongs in with his nasty striking skills. Yves Jabouin by knockout round 3.

My plays:
1u on Daniel Roberts at (+125) to win 1.25u

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Fight Picks and Predictions for Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Daley

By Nicholas Bailey

The first major Strikeforce event under Zuffa management features two crackling title fights topping off some less meaningful popcorn fights. It will be interesting to see the Strikeforce promotion finally let its fighters take off the training wheels and throw elbow strikes like big boys, especially with the inherent viciousness that men like Daley and Kawajiri can bring to that weapon.

Champ Nick Diaz (-220) vs. Paul Daley (+185) (for welterweight title)


Nick Diaz could lose this fight. He probably won't, but it's important to remember that it's possible. Diaz has a great chin, but he has gone down under heavy fire before, and been stopped. He relies on volume to protect him from counterfire, since he doesn't really move a lot to avoid strikes. That's a dangerous recipe against someone with the incredible power of Daley.

Diaz will be the much longer fighter, but he doesn't fight at the end of his range, working a stiff jab and staying on his bicycle. He comes forward and throws slapping punches somewhat sidearm, which will rob him of some of his height and reach advantage. Daley was shut down by the reach of Nick Thompson and struggled with the taller Jorge Masvidal, so its quite possible to see him incapable of putting anything together against Diaz.

Even if Daley does tag Diaz, it's likely the Stockton native would simply sit down and try to pull him into guard. Daley has never been the most composed and in-control fighter, so it is very likely he would flail futilely and give Diaz the chance to recover and tie him up. Unless Daley can put Diaz spark out on the feet, it's going to be tough for him to justify chasing Diaz to the floor, given the severe disadvantage Daley faces there.

Diaz is a seriously dangerous submission fighter, and Daley is still little more than a one-dimensional kickboxer. If Diaz can get past Daley's speed and muscle to put him on his back, a submission is not far off.

Daley is dangerous, but Diaz simply has too many tools and too many advantages. He can wear Daley down and TKO him, he can get aggressive and really punch him up, or he can take him down and tap him out. This fight is not likely going to go to decision. Nick Diaz by TKO round 3.



Champ Gilbert Melendez (-220) vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri (+205) (for lightweight title)


This is a fantstic rematch. Melendez and Kawajiri have interestingly opposed styles, and it has been more than four years since their first fight, with each man improving by leaps and bounds in the interim. Melendez has shored up his wrestling and become a more focused and disciplined fighter, and Kawajiri has simply tightened up every aspect of his game. Both men have made great improvements in the striking department, even if Kawajiri got busted up in K-1.

Both men are hard-charging hybrid wrestlers with solid chins and heavy hands. This fight is going to be a serious war, no matter who wins. Neither man is going to fold up under pressure, so even a one-sided fight is likely to go all five rounds. Melendez has looked a little sharper recently, but Kawajiri has long been under-appreciated and it would be nice to see him get some shine. Melendez also has to be slightly favored because of his experience fighting in the United States, with travel being something that can really affect Japanese fighters that have never had to travel for a fight before. The other big X factor in this fight is the fact that they can use elbows, something that should naturally fit into each man's style. Gilbert Melendez by decision.

Kawajiri is probably going to lose this, but +205 is really undervaluing his skills. It would not be shocking at all if he could reliably get Melendez down and elbow him up or take his back, or even touch him up on the feet. This is going to be a close fight, so the randomness of judging works in Kawajiri's favor as well.


Keith Jardine (+400) vs. Gegard Mousasi (-400)


What happened to Keith Jardine? At one point he was very close to fighting for a UFC title, but now he's been crushing scrubs trying to earn his way back into a big show, and in this case taking a disadvantageous fight as a very late replacement as a traditional journeyman. Mousasi is going to crack him early and put him out. Jardine's only real chance here is to come out with the gameplan of outwrestling Mousasi and working top control, but that's never been Keith's style. Mousasi is simply too sharp a striker not to floor somebody with the poor footwork and glaring vulnerabilities Jardine has. Gegard Mousasi by KO round 1.


Shinya Aoki (-225) vs. Lyle Beerbohm (+190)


Beerbohm usually relies on his grappling to get by, but against Aoki he'll be in well over his head. Beerbohm isn't a lights-out striker, but it doesn't take much to put Aoki out of comission, so “Fancy Pants” still has a decent shot at this fight, especially with elbows allowed. Like any Aoki fight, this could end specacularly at any moment, either with a wild submission or humiliating knockout, but that is predicated on the fight moving beyond a clinch against the cage. Aoki is going to have to tie Beerbohm up, something he is very capable of doing, but it's not clear if he'll be able to trip “Fancy Pants” to the floor or take his back standing. Aoki should be able to keep Beerbohm on the defensive, and pick up rounds for a decision at the very least. Shinya Aoki by decision.


PRELIMINARY CARD
Robert Peralta (+250) vs. Hiroyuki Takaya (-280)


This fight should be a hidden gem. Takaya is a serious slugger, and Peralta will be happy to indulge him in that. Takaya will probably run over him, but this fight is notable for getting Takaya back into the US market after his brief stint in the WEC. Hiroyuki Takaya by TKO round 1.


My Plays:
1u on Tatsuya Kawajiri at (+205) to win 2.05u

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Fight Picks and Predictions for UFC 128 Prelims: When Joe Silva Attacks

By Nicholas Bailey

It's great to see the smaller guys get some UFC shine as the WEC roster continues to be merged into Zuffa's promotion for the big boys. This undercard is full of talented smaller fighters trying to make a splash in intensely competitive divisions, which should produce thrilling and meaningful fights. Every UFC fight now carries the additional weight of Zuffa's continued belt-tightening leading to less and less leeway for fighters without big names, meaning almost everyone on the undercard is in danger of losing their job if they don't perform, further increasing the drama of the whole show.


PRELIMINARY CARD (Spike TV)
Luiz Cane (-175) vs. Eliot Marshall (+160)


Cane's weakness is that he seems unable to avoid punches from talented left-handed strikers. Marshall's weakness is that his style is horribly boring and completely unmarketable. Marshall is going to look to tie Cane up and push him into the cage, with an eye to holding him there for all three rounds. The problem is that Cane is a vicious striker and will knee Marshall's guts out in the clinch. Marshall won't be able to shut down Cane's offense, and will pay the price. Luiz Cane by TKO round 2.


Edson Barboza (-285) vs. Anthony Njokuani (+240)


This fight will likely be a joy to watch, with lethal, technical striking on display. Njokuani, for all his technical foibles and negative attitude towards the ground game, can really bring some pure Muay Thai destruction, as he showed when he wrecked Edward Faaloloto with an instructional-perfect inline elbow. Barboza is a phenom and strongly favored to win this fight, but if it stays on the feet Njokuani will be very dangerous for him.

Barboza could take Njokuani apart with leg kicks before punching him out, but he also has the ground chops to submit the deficient Njokuani. Either of these men can finish a fight before an opponent has a chance to adjust his strategy, so expect some sudden violence. Edson Barboza by TKO round 1.


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Ricardo Almeida (-170) vs. Mike Pyle (+145)


Almeida is fading and Pyle is holding steady as a high-level veteran. Fortunately for Almeida, he is a superior wrestler, which will enable him to threaten Pyle positionally. Pyle is a superior striker and has a very active guard. It will be hard for either to submit the other, but Pyle is more aggressive and might be able to find the same kind of success Matt Hughes did.

Overall Pyle just has more going for him and is more upwardly mobile in his career. He faces a tough stylistic matchup in Almeida, but if he pushes hard he should be able to snatch the victory. Mike Pyle by decision.


Kurt Pellegrino (+135) vs. Gleison Tibau (-150)


Pellegrino is solid. He's just tough to deal with in any area. Tibau is pretty good on the feet, although Pellegrino is better. This fight is going to come down to how many takedowns of Tibau Pellegrino can stop. If Tibau can reliably get on top of Kurt, the ATT product is going to lay there and win a decision. If Pellegrino can make him work, Tibau is going to tire out and fall apart, getting busted up by Kurt's punches.

Pellegrino's performances often come down to mental factors, with Kurt either losing focus in the ring and giving his opponent opportunities they should not have, or coming in focused and aggressive and running over opponents. It remains to be seen how Pellegrino will perform against Tibau. Kurt Pellegrino by TKO round 3.


PRELIMINARY CARD
Joseph Benavidez (-400) vs. Ian Loveland (+325)


This will be a good test of Benavidez's wrestling. Loveland is pretty dangerous on the feet, and not a bad wrestler. Benavidez probably doesn't want to tangle with his striking, especially given the reach disadvantage he'd be at, so he's going to have to come in from a ways out with minimally set-up takedowns.

Once Benavidez gets the fight to the mat, he'll be able to run game on Loveland, but the initial takedowns will prove a challenge, and Loveland's size will give Joseph trouble wherever the fight goes. With Benavidez being so aggressive lately with his submissions, he will probably be able to seal the deal if he can create an opening early in the fight. Otherwise he might be in for a real threat as Loveland's size wears on him. Joseph Benavidez by submission, round 1.


Raphael Assuncao (+130) vs. Erik Koch (-160)


Assuncao has simply failed to live up to his hype against high-level opponents. Koch hasn't faced the same level of opposition, but he also seems to be growing and improving from fight to fight, where Assuncao has merely remained solid in all aspects of the fight game. That's hardly an indictment of Assuncao's talent, but that might not be enough to overcome someone with the offensive chops of Koch. Look for Koch to assert himself more and more in the fight, with striking from all positions, until the decision becomes a complete blowout. Erik Koch by decision.


Nick Catone (-200) vs. Costantinos Philippou (+175)

Catone by wrestling. Philippou is a super-late replacement and will get eaten alive late in the fight. Nick Catone by decision.


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Fight Picks and Predictions for UFC 128: Is the Future Here?

By Nicholas Bailey

This fight is perhaps one of the most anticipated title fights of the year. The outcome of Shogun vs. Jones is going to set the narrative for the UFC's 205 pound division for the next year. Jones has a huge reach, and he's managed to cast a shadow big enough to completely obscure Urijah Faber's continued efforts at 135 even as Faber rapidly moves towards a title shot.


Champ Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (+160) vs. Jon Jones (-185) (for light-heavyweight title)


A legendary fighter from a legendary gym, still trailing the larger-than-life imagery of Japan's fabled Pride promotion is set to defend his belt (as an underdog, according to the bookies) against a fighter that has been tabbed for greatness since he awkwardly stepped into the Octagon and began spinning out of control.

Jon Jones' career ascent has been compared to Shogun's mythical performance in the 2005 Pride Middleweight Grand Prix, which is giving Jones far too much credit. In 2005, Shogun beat four top-ten fighters in four months, three of them with dominant knockouts. Jones has risen through the ranks as his fame increased, but he had not faced a single top-ten fighter before facing off against Bader, who was himself pretty untested.

This is an extremely competitive matchup. Each man has the skills to threaten or overcome the other, so it will really be educative to see how the fight turns out.

On the feet, Shogun has to have the advantage. Jones has confused opponents with his unorthodox striking, but Shogun is a far more dangerous striker than anyone Jones has beaten. Jones dealt with power punchers in Bader and Hamill, but neither of those men is much more than a slugger with rudimentary technique. Shogun has an extremely versatile attack, and he will be able to go downstairs with leg kicks to keep Jones off balance to set up his power punches and knees. Jones can surprise, but he hasn't shown much in the way of power on the feet. The only way he seems to be able to really shake an opponent up while standing is to land that spinning elbow spike, which probably will not work on Rua. As he showed against Machida, Rua is very rugged and can come storming through punches in order to land his own return fire. If Jones doesn't have a lot of pop on his punches, Shogun will be in his face and beating him up.

Of course, Jones has an answer for that. If Shogun is getting in his face, Jones shouldn't have much trouble dumping him to the mat. Far lesser lights have done so repeatedly, and Jones has shown little difficult taking down some of the sturdiest wrestlers in his division. Shogun is very good in the clinch, but if Jones gets that close to him, Shogun is going to get tripped to the mat or lateral dropped before he can get busy with knees.

What happens on the ground is perhaps the most interesting part of the fight. Shogun has one of the most active and dangerous guards of any fighter at 205, and Jones has perhaps the most destructive ground-and-pound. If Jones can keep Shogun down, it won't take long for him to lay a serious beating and blow up the champion's face with his spider-crab arms. On the other hand, Machida is a far superior technical grappler and jiu-jitsu player to Jones, and he couldn't keep shogun on the ground for more than a few seconds. If Shogun continues to escape that easily from the bottom, he's going to be a real handful for Jones, who won't want anything to do with him on the feet. Even if Jones can keep him down, Shogun is going to be a big threat. Jones has preternatural talent, but it still takes experience to become a master grappler. If he leaves his arm hanging around across Shogun's chest like he did against Brandon Vera, the champ is going to be threatening him with an armbar, and then those long limbs are going to be a disadvantage as they get caught and levered against themselves. Shogun really seemed to profit from his Chute Boxe training with Nino Schembri, so don't be shocked to see him hit an omoplata sweep to a dominant position against Jones.

It has to be remembered that Jones is a neophyte in this game, and he's ridden a wave of uninterrupted dominant success. It's not clear if he's going to be able to adapt to being out of control in one area of the fight or maintain his composure in a bad situation where he's getting beat up. Those are things that Shogun has proven he can do, and that Jones has all the skills to force him to do. It wouldn't be the first time an elite-caliber fighter suffered a meltdown when dominated in one aspect of a fight for the first time.

Much has been made about Shogun's knee injury and layoff. His joints are certainly not what they used to be, having been shredded and repaired so many times, and the layoff could result in an out-of-shape champion being easy prey for Jones. However, little attention has been paid to the fact that Jones was basically given no rest period after his last fight. It's not uncommon, even in dominant victories, for a fighter to get dinged up and injured, something a fighter would assuredly try to fight through if given the opportunity of a title shot. There's also the tricky half-science half-witchcraft art of making sure an athlete is “peaking” at the right time to perform at his best, which could be greatly thrown off by this rapid turnaround. It could be that Jones is the more physically unprepared fighter when these two square off.

This is going to be a very thrilling fight, and it is one that is very likely to have a violent end. Both men are going to be walking along a razor's edge throughout, but Shogun has proven that he can walk along that razor, whereas Jones has not, so he has a slight edge here. Mauricio Shogun Rua by Knockout, round 3.

Shogun is being undervalued here. Jones is truly a great prospect, but Shogun has proven himself to be elite for a long time now. He is a greater finishing threat, with more paths to victory, so getting him as an underdog is a good price.


Urijah Faber (-430) vs. Eddie Wineland (+330)


Faber is giving a showcase here. Wineland is a good fighter, and will be dangerous for Faber on the feet if Urijah gets out of control and starts throwing no-look leaping elbows, but otherwise he's simply going to get throttled. Faber is a fantastic example of the concept of a “playmaker” in MMA. He doesn't have the technical grappling skill of someone like a Rani Yahya, but he's a much bigger submission threat because he has the awareness of opportunities to throw himself into with lightning speed. Yahya struggled with Mizugaki, incrementally grappling and plying technique against defense.

Faber simply created an opening in a scramble and then throttled Mizugaki until he looked like a day-old corpse.

Wineland doesn't have the technical skill or composure to avoid that for three rounds. Unless he can really brain Faber with something early, he's going to end up on the defensive as Faber swarms on him. Urijah Faber by submission, round 1.


Jim Miller (-270) vs. Kamal Shalorus (+215)


Shalorus is a fantastic wrestler with great physical tools that he has leaned on as a crutch in lieu of developing his technical skills. Instead of Shalorus learning to avoid big punches or block them, he relies on his rugged chin. Instead of figuring out how to set up his punches and throw them in combinations, he just throws as hard as he can and hopes his natural power will overcome his opponent's defenses. On the ground, he uses his strength to try to muscle out of submissions he wasn't savvy enough to avoid in the first place. These tendencies get Shalorus in big trouble against fighters with solid technical games, like Varner's boxing or Palaszewski's kickboxing and guard.

Unfortunately for the “Prince of Persia,” Jim Miller is as solid as they come. As Charles Oliveira learned, Miller isn't going to be blinded by flashy talents, and will make you pay with his own technical skills. Miller is a better boxer, but he doesn't have a whole lot of power, so Shalorus could beat him up there if he can get rolling with his haymakers.

Miller is nominally a wrestler, but he seems to end up on his back against other wrestlers, and against someone with the sheer power of Shalorus, he will definitely be working his guard. Shalorus hits hard on the floor, but Miller is quite tough and has the skills to sweep or submit from his back.

This is a fight likely to go to a contentious decision, with Shalorus slowing down in the third round but scoring lots of top position throughout. If Miller still has enough left in the tank in the third, he has a good shot of landing a guillotine or other submission there, but if the fight goes to the judges, he might very well get robbed, despite being more active off his back and achieving more meaningful offense. Everyone knows judges love top position and meaningless haymakers, so long as they come with aggression. Jim Miller by decision.

Betting on Shalorus might pay off, given the poor standards of judging and his likely dominant positions and visible offense.


Nate Marquardt (-300) vs. Dan Miller (+240)


Dan Miller has not looked impressive for a while. He's coming into this fight on super-short notice, to collect a paycheck, and he's probably going to get beat up. Marquardt isn't a fantastic defensive wrestler, but he is good enough to stop Miller's takedowns. On the feet, Marquardt is a far superior striker and that's really going to tell the tale against a fighter that was preparing to fight a wrestler and has been out-struck by Demian Maia. Nate Marquardt by TKO round 2.


Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic (+215) vs. Brendan Schaub (-260)


This fight has a decent up-and-comer against a badly shopworn legend. Cro Cop is showing the wear and tear of a lifetime of high-impact combat sports. One cannot expect to smash your foot into targets with the power Crocop has at his command without it falling apart eventually. His reflexes and knees are not what they used to be when he was a stone wall against all takedown attempts, and he can't fight with the same aggression and killer instinct with a body that cannot be relied upon to fire the finishing shots he came to rely upon.

If Schaub comes in and puts Crocop on his back, this fight will be nasty, brutish, and short. If Schaub keeps it standing, then he'll probably put a beating on the former Pride fighter, but it will keep Filipovic in the fight. Schaub was nuked by Roy Nelson, and Crocop still has much better boxing than the tubby terror. If Schaub gets careless and lets Crocop put one across his jaw, he'll be waking up wondering what went wrong.

Crocop is still a tough opponent, busting up Junior dos Santos and Pat Barry even as they were kicking his ass. Schaub's chin and pain tolerance will be tested if he lets Crocop land this counterfire on him. Brendan Schaub by decision.


My plays:
1u on Kamal Shalorus at (+215) to win 2.15u
1u on Mauricio Rua at (+160) to win 1.6u


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Fight Picks and Predictions for UFC 127 Prelims: Aussie or Outie?

By Nicholas Bailey

UFC 127: Penn vs. Fitch

PRELIMINARY CARD (ION Television)

Spencer Fisher (+160) vs. Ross Pearson (-175)


Spencer Fisher is a crumbling mess. He is basically the prototypical broken-down fighter training in a situation that is a shambles of the professional environment he found in his heyday. Pearson got a lot of attention as a steadily-improving TUF product, even if he didn't explode out with crazy performances. Much of that was derailed when Cole Miller ate his lunch, but he should be able to completely maul Fisher in a sad spectacle. Ross Pearson by TKO round 3.

Alexander Gustafsson (-315) vs. James Te Huna (+275)


This is going to be a very violent fight. Gustafsson is an enormous human being, and he's a pretty good fighter on top of it. Te Huna isn't an elite fighter, but he brings gameness and cracking power. There's going to be some violence in this tilt. Gustafsson is a good deal better and more well-rounded, but there's always a chance Te Huna can knock somebody out. Gustafsson by TKO round 2.

Riki Fukuda (-130) vs. Nick Ring (EVEN)


This is going to be a real scrap. Neither man has a particular skill that will outshine the other for the kind of imbalance that leads to a stoppage. Ring has to be at a disadvantage due to Fukuda's superior wrestling, a nasty series of knee injuries, and the very long layoff those injuries have produced. Riki Fukuda by decision.


PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook)

Jason Reinhardt (+235) vs. Tiequan Zhang (-275)


Zhang is being given a gift here. He's not ready for real UFC-caliber fighters, but he's handy for putting the UFC on the map in China. He's not going to be a superstar, but he gets on TV and raises brand awareness, which is crucial for a long-term strategy. Reinhardt is just going to get jobbed, and quickly. Also Zhang's nickname of “The Mongolian Wolf” is totally boss. Tiequan Zhang by submission, round 1.

Tom Blackledge (-180) vs. Anthony Perosh (+160)


Perosh is the better grappler, but his chin is awful. Blackledge is really good at finding ways to land his head kick. That's a good recipe for a brutal KO, but there's no sure thing with fighters this size at this middling skill level. It would be no shock for Perosh to sneak something in and put Blackledge down or to snatch something up for a submission, but the most likely outcome is Blackledge putting him to sleep, and quickly. Blackledge by KO round 1.

PRELIMINARY CARD (Untelevised)

Mark Hunt (+215) vs. Chris Tuchscherer (-260)


Can't they both lose? Saying Hunt is just fighting for a paycheck is actually overstating his commitment to the sport at this point. Hunt is appearing in the cage and possibly taking some lumps before getting tapped out in order that he may buy more food. Tuchscherer has fallen completely flat even as a low-level UFC heavyweight, and is ready to be cut, but he'll get a win here. Tuchscherer by submission round 1.

Maciej Jewtuszko (-150) vs. Curt Warburton (+125)


Maciej hits really hard and has some submission chops. Curt Warburton doesn't have what it takes to get past a shell of a man in the form of Spencer Fisher. It's time for Jewtuszko to show us how much of a fluke the KO of Njokuani was (or wasn't). Jewtuszko by KO round 1.


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