By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)
Despite a lot of exciting fights, dramatic finishes, and an absolute gem of a main event, this card was bittersweet, and not just because I lost a bit of money on Nogueira (although if you followed my official plays you were one of the few people to turn a profit gambling on this event). Really, I was just sad to see Nogueira and Wanderlei go out like they did. Both men are icons of what I’ve come to think of as the “golden age” of MMA—the time period featuring the rise of Fedor, Wanderlei’s title Reign, the peak of the UFC/Pride Rivalry, and all around a very fun time to be following the sport.
There’s little doubt that the sport is now heading into a new era, with more homogeneity, even higher caliber fighters, and the simple reality of new blood replacing the old. In some ways, this year-end card closed the door on that golden age for good.
Rashad Evans def. Forrest Griffin via TKO (punches) -- Round 3, 2:46
Forrest fought a very good fight here. He landed more shots in the first two rounds but needed more power and chin and guard. Midway through the second round he landed hard on Rashad and flurried, landing a good amount of a very long series of strikes, and tagging Rashad pretty hard. However, Rashad seems to have a pretty good chin (although I still want to see him tagged by a real big hitter) and Forrest isn’t known for being a powerhouse. Although Forrest took the first two rounds, Rashad’s big right was always there, and there were several near-misses. I suggest taking a look at the FightMetric scores for this bout.
In the end, Rashad’s handspeed and power was just too much, and Forrest ended up playing a very sloppy guard (leading me to believe he was hurt in the knockdown). Rashad finally could make his compact build work to his advantage, delivering a huge amount of power in very short strikes and just piling on the damage.
Rashad’s hands are obviously the real deal, and his speed and power give him a shot in any fight. However, I still think he’s too incomplete to be a long-reigning champion. The division is full of great strikers, most of whom hit harder than Forrest. Unless Rashad has an iron jaw or improves his hands even more, getting hit as often as he did against Forrest will mean giving up his belt.
Forrest is going to continue to find success with his work ethic and size, but the difficulty he has in putting guys away, coupled with an average chin, mean that anyone he faces is going to get a lot of chances to knock him out. Without being a fantastic wrestler or having bulletproof defense, it’s going to be very difficult to find sustained success at the top level with a fighting style based around wearing down your opponent.
Frank Mir def. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira via TKO (punches) -- Round 2, 1:54
So, this is what Mir looks like when he trains properly? Nogueira was just a punching bag, so Mir was able to throw tons of variety and combos on him. Still, his hands looked improved and heavy, and he didn’t explode after the first round, so that’s an improvement. However, to be fighting the best in the division, decent hands and SOME cardio (Mir was breathing through his mouth beginning with the end of the first round, and slowed down noticeably in the second) are insufficient. When Mir gets in the ring with Lesnar, Brock is going to rip off his head and take his soul.
Mir’s improvements were aided by the fact that Nog looked absolutely awful. He came in about 10 lbs heavier than his last fight, didn’t move, offered no offense, and basically just got hit by anything Mir threw. Nog apparently had a serious leg injury and couldn't train properly (according to Nog, believable since he came in so heavy and moved so poorly), and was coming off of a staph infection and illeness (according to Dana White, believable since Nog sounded so hoarse in his interviews). I'm sure he had dengue fever and leprosy too, knowing how these things go. I think this loss really drops Nog’s stock massively. Being knocked out for the first time will definitely hurt his confidence in his chin, and confidence plays a big role in one’s actual ability to take a punch. The Nogueira that outboxed Sergei Kharitonov or even Heath Herring was nowhere to be found at UFC 92, and I don’t know if we’ll see him again. At this point I think Cheick Kongo would finish off a very done-for Nogueira. However, heavyweight is very weak, so if he gets favorable matchups, he could find some continued success before his now-impending retirement.
C.B. Dollaway def. Mike Massenzio via TKO (strikes) -- Round 1, 3:01
C.B., like other TUF runners-up have in the past, got a tougher matchup for his UFC debut here than the winner will likely get. Between Mike's leg injury and an improving guard pass game, C.B. didn't seem to have too much trouble here, although he did get a nice chin-check, which is always good for a developing fighter.
Quinton "Rampage" Jackson def. Wanderlei Silva via KO (punch) -- Round 1, 3:21
Rampage has very serious power in either hand, as we all knew, and a guy simply can't eat too much of what he can throw. Rampage will probably smash his way to a title shot again if he keeps training this hard and doesn't end up in prison. This knockout was very close to a replay of Rampage's shot on Chuck, somewhat similar to vintage Mike Tyson with the peek-a-boo style adapted to MMA. We still need to see if Rampage can overcome someone that wants to back away from him and has a reach advantage, as Forrest exploited, since Jackson has such a defensive, counter-oriented style (although he did stalk Wanderlei through much of this fight).
Wanderlei actually looked pretty good in this fight until he got smoked. He was very fast and crisp, although he was still throwing action figure punches and (unfortunately) leaving his chin very exposed. While he still has a couple more fights like the Keith Jardine mugging in the tank, I don't think Wanderlei can manage to string together enough knockouts to ever wear a major title belt again, but he could be extremely useful in putting on wonderful shows in giving UFC washouts the final boot out of the organizaiton. The man has sacrificed for MMA his entire life, so he really deserves to get a nice semi-retirement of returning to his old can-crushing days.
Cheick Kongo def. Mostapha Al-Turk via TKO (strikes) -- Round 1, 4:37
Cheick has the most impressive physique in MMA right now. Kongo has finally managed to use his massive physical gifts to fight off takedowns, which bodes very well for his future in the talent-thin heavyweight division. Al-Turk looked pretty poor in this fight, but he's a pretty good guy and can probably find some success in fighting the Justin McCully's of the world. The other really impressive thing was Kongo's ground-and-pound. In addition to its viciousness, it was very technical, with Kongo throwing combos and switching up his angles so that it was almost impossible to block it. I think at this point nobody in the division wants to be underneath Kongo, and very few will be comfortable standing with him. Again, with the unbelievable strength all his training partners talk about, Kongo is going to be hard to put down too. Kongo isn't a young guy, at 33, but he still seems to be in his physical prime, so he might have the time to really put together a good streak and even knock off some top guys en route to losing in a title shot.
Yushin Okami def. Dean Lister via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Very predictable. Lister really hasn't become a well-rounded fighter at all, and Okami fought a very smart and controlled fight. Okami really has serious skills, but his control-based style is not going to make him a fan favorite. Lister needs to leave MMA alone. Soon.
Antoni Hardonk def. Mike Wessel via TKO (strikes) -- Round 2, 2:09
Hardonk still can't wrestle, but his jiu-jitsu is getting a little better, I guess. He's still very loose, which will hurt him against someone that can grapple at a higher level than Mike Wessel. Hardonk also needs to work on not getting clinched up all the time. Yes, his knees looked brutal and Wessel must have a hell of a chin, but it also lets his opponents just tie him up and dump him over, which he really should try to avoid at all costs.
Matt Hamill def. Reese Andy via TKO (strikes) -- Round 2, 2:19
Hamill is incredibly tough and just a rough fight for anyone, always moving forward, and always throwing his bruising bear-maul style of strikes. However, if he continues at this rate, he's going to lose on the fight against anyone with technical striking, especially if they have power (witness the clinic Rich Franklin put on him). Reese was simply overmatched here, and is likely headed out of the UFC. Unfortunately for Hamill, he will probably be most useful to the UFC in taking a serious beating from Thiago Silva, after Silva loses to Machida.
Brad Blackburn def. Ryo Chonan via unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Blackburn has serious boxing skills, and his gassing has been overblown. He did slow down, lose the third round, and get his nose broken, but it wasn't a Phil Baroni-level gas disaster. Chonan really needs to figure out how he's going to approach fights. He seemed to just float along through the first two rounds and content himself with those karate kicks to the leg. Chonan doesn’t have the control skills to win rounds, or the firepower to finish fights. Unless he can work out some way to overcome that, he’s going to wash right out of the UFC, if he hasn’t already.
Patrick Barry def. Dan Evensen via TKO (injury) -- Round 1, 2:36
This just shows that not everyone who fought in K-1 has “K-1 Level” striking. Evensen doesn't belong in the UFC, just as Barry doesn't really belong at heavyweight with his height. Still, if he can continue to work a distance kickboxing game as dilligently as he did in this fight, he'll probably knock out a lot of heavyweights. Barry has a good chin too, never having been knocked out even in his K-1 career. He did a good job of shrugging off or redirecting Evensen's sloppy takedown attempts, but Barry is probably totally useless off his back, so he's going to need a gentle hand in matchmaking or he's just going to be fodder for rebuilding an elite ground-based fighter like Cain Velasquez or Gabriel Gonzaga.
December 31, 2008
Post UFC 92 Notes - The End of an Era
Dynamite!! 2008
Click the stars to rate how good you think this event was.
Fighting and Entertainment Group's Dynamite!! 2008 was held on New Year's Eve, Wednesday December 31, 2008 at the Saitama Super Arena in Saitama, Japan.
It featured kickboxing and mixed martial arts as it combines bouts from FEG's K-1 World Grand Prix, K-1 World Max, K-1 Koshien and DREAM brands.
Joachim Hansen was schedules to fight Gesias Calvancante, but the bout was canceled the day of the event due to Hansen not passing pre-fight medicals.
In Japan, parts of the event was shown live on TBS (Tokyo Broadcasting Station) in a four an hour timeslot and the full event on a delayed pay-per-view. For international viewers, eventmagic.tv was scheduled to stream a full length broadcast, but was eventually unable to do so.
Post K-1 Dynamite Notes - The Revolution Has Begun
| Match | Winner | Loser | Method | Round | Time |
| 1 | Ikuhisa Minowa | Errol Zimmerman | Submission (Toe Hold) | 1 | 1:01 |
| 5 | Daisuke Nakamura | Hideo Tokoro | Submission (Armbar) | 1 | 2:23 |
| 6 | Andy Ologun | Yukio Sakaguchi | KO (Punches) | 1 | 3:52 |
| 8 | Bob Sapp | Akihito Tanaka | TKO (Punches) | 1 | 5:22 |
| 9 | Semmy Schilt | Siala Siliga | Submission (Triangle Choke) | 1 | 5:31 |
| 10 | Hayato Sakurai | Katsuyori Shibata | TKO (Punches) | 1 | 7:01 |
| 14 | Mirko Filipovic | Hong Man Choi | TKO (Low Kick) | 1 | 6:32 |
| 15 | Melvin Manhoef | Mark Hunt | KO (Punches) | 1 | 0:18 |
| 16 | Shinya Aoki | Eddie Alvarez | Submission (Heel Hook) | 1 | 1:32 |
| 17 | Kiyoshi Tamura | Kazushi Sakuraba | Decision (Unanimous) | 2 | 5:00 |
Dynamite!! 2008 - 17. Kiyoshi Tamura vs. Kazushi Sakuraba
Middleweight bout: Kiyoshi Tamura defeated Kazushi Sakuraba via unanimous decision (20-18, 20-18, 20-18).
Read More......Dynamite!! 2008 - 16. Shinya Aoki vs. Eddie Alvarez
WAMMA Lightweight Championship bout: Shinya Aoki defeated Eddie Alvarez via submission (heel hook) at 1:32 of round 1 to become the first WAMMA Lightweight Champion.
Read More......Dynamite!! 2008 - 15. Melvin Manhoef vs. Mark Hunt
Heavyweight bout: Melvin Manhoef defeated Mark Hunt via KO (punches) at 0:18 of round 1.
Read More......Dynamite!! 2008 - 14. Mirko Filipovic vs. Hong Man Choi
Heavyweight bout: Mirko "Crocop" Filipovic defeated Hong Man Choi via TKO (leg kicks) at 6:32 of round 1.
Read More......Dynamite!! 2008 - 10. Hayato Sakurai vs. Katsuyori Shibata
Middleweight bout: Hayato "Mach" Sakurai defeated Katsuyori Shibata via TKO {punches) at 7:01 of round 1.
Read More......Dynamite!! 2008 - 9. Semmy Schilt vs. Siala Siliga
Heavyweight bout: Semmy Schilt defeated Siala "Mighty Mo" Siliga via Submission (Triangle Choke) at 5:31 of round 1.
Read More......Dynamite!! 2008 - 8. Bob Sapp vs. Akihito Tanaka
Heavyweight bout: Bob Sapp defeated Akihito "Kinniku Mantaro" Tanaka via TKO (punches) at 5:22 of round 1.
Akihito Tanaka was wearing a masked costume of the fiction character Kinniku Mantaro.
Dynamite!! 2008 - 6. Andy Ologun vs. Yukio Sakaguchi
Middleweight bout: Andy Ologun defeated Yukio Sakaguchi via KO (punches) at 3:52 of round 1.
Read More......Dynamite!! 2008 - 5. Daisuke Nakamura vs. Hideo Tokoro
Featherweight bout: Daisuke Nakamura defeated Hideo Tokoro via submission (armbar) at 2:23 of round 1.
Read More......Dynamite!! 2008 - 1. Ikuhisa Minowa vs. Errol Zimmerman
Middleweight bout: Ikuhisa "Minowaman" Minowa defeated Errol Zimmerman via submission (Toe Hold) at 1:01 of round 1.
Read More......Dynamite!! 2008 (Predictions)
Click the stars to rate how good you think it will be.
Fighting and Entertainment Group's Dynamite!! 2008 is to be held on New Year's Eve, Wednesday December 31, 2008 at the Saitama Super Arena in Saitama, Japan.
It will feature kickboxing and mixed martial arts as it combines bouts from FEG's K-1 World Grand Prix, K-1 World Max, K-1 Koshien and DREAM brands. K-1 Dynamite 2008 - The Freaks are Back
MMA Matches:
Middleweight bout: Ikuhisa Minowa vs. Errol Zimmerman
Featherweight bout: Hideo Tokoro vs. Daisuke Nakamura
Middleweight bout: Yukio Sakaguchi vs. Andy Ologun
Heavyweight bout: Bob Sapp vs. Akihito Tanaka
Heavyweight bout: Mighty Mo vs. Semmy Schilt
Middleweight bout: Hayato Sakurai vs. Katsuyori Shibata
Heavyweight bout: Mirko Filipovic vs. Hong Man Choi
Lightweight bout: Joachim Hansen vs. Gesias Calvancante
Heavyweight bout: Melvin Manhoef vs. Mark Hunt
WAMMA Lightweight Championship bout: Eddie Alvarez vs. Shinya Aoki
Middleweight bout: Kazushi Sakuraba vs. Kiyoshi Tamura
K-1 Matches:
Under 18 tournament semi-final bout: Hiroya vs. Shota Shimada
Under 18 tournament semi-final bout: Kusakabe Ryuya vs. Koya Urabe
Lightweight bout: Yoshihiro Sato vs. Artur Kyshenko
Under 18 tournament final bout: Hiroya/Shimada vs. Ryuya/Urabe
Lightweight bout: Tatsuya Kawajiri vs. Kozo Takeda
Heavyweight bout: Alistair Overeem vs. Badr Hari
Middleweight bout: Musashi vs. Gegard Mousasi 
December 29, 2008
K-1 Dynamite 2008 - The Freaks are Back
By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)
In typical K-1/Japanese MMA fashion, this card makes very little sense as anything aside from a spectacle. There’s the usual parade of giants, freaks, variety show hosts, fighters fighting far out of their natural weight or primary rule set, legends long past their prime, and exciting fights with real divisional importance.
As a disclaimer, I don’t follow K-1 kickboxing that closely, so any predictions I make for K-1 rules bouts should be taken with a large grain of salt.
* indicates a bout to be fought under K-1 kickboxing rules.
Kazushi Sakuraba (-150) vs. Kiyoshi Tamura (+120)
Due to the pro-wrestling feud, you’re supposed to care a lot about this match between two of the most accomplished elder statesment of Japanese MMA. Sakuraba is plainly a shot fighter at this point, a chinny shell of his former self. Tamura has taken fewer horrible beatings, despite having fought Bob Sapp, so he must be favored here. Tamura, like Sakuraba really has a very impressive record of fights with (and victories over) MMA pioneers, especially legends from the Rings circuit.
Tamura has always been vulnerable to submissions from sneaky grappling specialists, but Sakuraba’s shot knees have taken almost all of the spring out of his once-effective takedowns. Tamura has pretty good kickboxing, and Sakuraba no longer has the chin to withstand any amount of punishment, even from Tamura, who is not usually regarded as a big hitter. Kiyoshi Tamura TKO round 2.
At +120 odds of Sakuraba being totally shot, I have to make a play here.
Gesias "JZ" Calvancante (-105) vs. Joachim Hansen (-110)
Prior to getting swamped by Shinya Aoki’s ground game, JZ looked prepared to establish himself as the top lightweight in Japan, smashing all opposition in front of him with such vicious striking and ground and pound that more than a third of his wins have come in under one minute. JZ has demonstrated a phenomenal chin, taking an absolute shellacking in a K-1 rules match with 155lb ace Masato without seeming overly hurt. Aside from the recent loss to Aoki, where JZ looked confused and tentative (which wasn’t helped by the fact that he had a bad knee injury) JZ’s only other loss was to none other than Joachim Hansen. In that fight (Which JZ took on very short notice) Hansen controlled the entire fight with his grappling, and Calvancante simply looked lost on the mat.
While JZ is at a career low with his injury, loss, and inactivity, Hansen is at a career high after his Steve Jennum like victory in the Dream lightweight tournament. Hansen is a fan favorite because of his exciting and hyper-aggressive style. He isn’t the most technically refined striker, but throws hard enough to make up for it, and he has a fantastic chin that lets him walk through punches (provided they aren’t thrown by a bomber like Eddie Alvarez). On the ground, Hansen maintains this aggression, but works a very technical and advanced submission game, with rubber-guard work and cool helicopter armbar attempts. In this fight he’s going to have to be at peak form in both areas, since JZ will be throwing with intent to kill, as usual.
Much of this fight will depend on how recovered JZ is from his injury. I think that Hansen can’t win on the feet, because JZ will have a crisper standup game and the toughness to not be unduly concerned with Hansen’s power. If Hansen can regularly score takedowns and maintain top position (which is almost never his MO) then JZ will be in for a very long night. Their first meeting was only JZ’s third professional fight, and I think JZ’s grappling has improved to the point where he will be able to better maintain top position and deal damage from the guard, which should seal him the victory. JZ Calvancante by decision.
JZ opened at -170, but quickly moved to his current position at -105. I’ve learned the hard way that, due to his exciting style and fan-favorite status, Hansen is almost always overvalued in the odds. I think -170 is the correct line for the fight, so -105 is a very juicy proposition. Hansen still has the skills to win this fight, so it’s not a huge play, but I think that there’s a significant edge at -105.
Eddie Alvarez (-140) vs. Shinya Aoki (+120)
Another mix-and-match of the top non-UFC 155lbers in the world, the winner of this fight SHOULD be next in line for the lightweight title currently around Joachim Hansen’s waist, but knowing Japanese MMA, there’s probably a talk show host or corporate-sponsored food item in line for a shot.
Alvarez had a huge year in 2008, coming from ‘hot prospect’ status to immediately make a bid for top honors in the world. His style is impetuous, even if his defense is not impregnable, and the kid certainly has dynamite in his hands. He has that rare kind of discombobulating power that can change the course of the fight at any point. He’s very fast and athletic, and has plenty of strength, which he uses to help his wrestling to let him force a standup fight. On the ground against Hansen, he often floundered and seemed somewhat desperate, but he did manage to avoid submissions and soundly win the fight.
Shinya Aoki has similar sudden fight-stopping ability, although he is built like a 13 year old boy rather than a bruising slugger. He’s shocked pretty much everyone he’s fought with his ability to force a ground game and threaten with submissions from any position he finds himself in. Aoki is also one of the worst standup fighters in the game today, choosing to gimp-run into a clinch with his arms out like a zombie instead of exchanging punches. While he’s been diligently working on his standup in Thailand, I don’t expect Shinya to be changing his name to Ramon Dekkers anytime soon, especially since he doesn’t seem to be able to take a lot of punishment.
I think MMA fans regularly underestimate Aoki’s ability to force a ground fight because he doesn’t come in with traditional takedowns and top control, which really doesn’t give enough credit to his judo game and unique style. The fact is that Aoki has managed to force a grappling fight on Olympic wrestlers and other fighters with top-notch defensive wrestling games like JZ Calvancante and Caolo Uno. His willingness to pull guard, combined with very effective sweeps and trips from the clinch, mean that everyone he faces that doesn’t knock him out almost immediately, will have to deal with his submission offense. I think he can get past Alvarez’s hands, and if Hansen gave Alvarez fits on the ground, Aoki will choke him out. With Eddie’s power and Aoki’s poor standup, the chance for a massive KO is there at almost any point in the fight, but I think Alvarez will be too tied up to bring the big guns to bear. Shinya Aoki submission round 1.
I think there’s a slight edge on Aoki as a +120 underdog, and the fight is well-defined enough to make it worth a play.
Mark Hunt vs. Jerome LeBanner
While this has certainly been one of the most entertaining rivalries in fightsport, it’s also a bit of a head-scratcher. Lebanner has long been making noise about fighting MMA, variously fighting jobbers and being involved in one of the most hilarious gong shows in MMA history, his bizarre ‘mixed-rules’ K-1/MMA bout with Bob Sapp, which featured Sapp crying in between rounds and otherwise being a cartoon. So, in order to scratch Lebanner’s MMA itch, they’ve put him against another K-1 fighter that’s basically going to have a K-1 rules fight with ‘Geronimo’.
Hunt was fat and out of shape (more so than usual) against Semmy Schilt, and I sincerely doubt he’s going to get up and do roadwork for a NYE MMA rules bout. The small gloves work in his favor, since even in his losses he’s knocked Lebanner down with puffy K-1 gloves, which would probably have broken his jaw with 4 ounce gloves. Lebanner is coming off an arm injury loss in early December, which is very difficult to handicap. Nevertheless, he’s beaten Hunt several times, and I expect Hunt to be in even worse shape and lose again, especially considering the longer 5-minute rounds. Jerome Lebanner TKO round 2.
Again, Lebanner should be favored, so there's an edge here and a good play to make.
Gegard Mousasi vs. Musashi *
I hate this matchup. Mousasi has established himself as the best 185-lb fighter in Japan, and he should be fighting other divisional stars in MMA, not locking horns with giant kickboxers under their own rules. There is a bit of a silver lining to this cloud, however. For one, we’ll really get to see Mousasi test himself, since Musashi is a very talented kickboxer, even if he is on the decline of his career right now. Mousasi is a good kickboxer himself, so he’s more likely to be outclassed than simply squashed. We’ll get to see the game he rarely gets a chance to work in MMA, since everyone he fights takes him down so quickly. The other possible positive outcome from this fight is that Gegard will realize that size matters in MMA and make every effort to compete at 185 as long as his body lets him, instead of foolishly hopping up to 205 where he’d have to fight giant guys.
I expect Musashi to win this fight handily. He’s too much bigger and too tough. His kicks are very powerful and I think he’ll just batter Gegard until he cannot defend himself, and finish him off with punches. Musashi TKO round 3.
Hong Man Choi (+160) vs. Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic (-200)
This is an interesting fight, sort of. CroCop has looked like a spent force in his last couple of fights, and Hong Man Choi is coming off a loss to Ray Sefo, who is himself a force long spent. Choi had the tumor on his pituitary gland removed this summer (presumably cutting out the huge doses of human growth hormone it casued), and he has lost 35 lbs (and two K-1 fights) since then. I have no idea how to handicap the results of that operation, but I think evidence points towards a weakening of Choi's fighting abilities.
Crocop in good fighting shape is extremely fast and powerful, which should let him punish the lumbering Choi, especially with kicks to the legs and body. I don't expect the fight to go to the ground, but Crocop is a much more well-versed grappler than Choi, so he should be able to defend himself somewhat against the giant.
There's every chance that this fight is a total gong show of horribleness, and it would be sad to see if the deflated, defeated Crocop we saw against Alistair Overeem is all that the Croatian sensation has to offer the fight world these days. I will remain hopeful, and say that Crocop will perform well and win the fight, but I would strongly advise against betting on this fight, since there are so many unknowns. Crocop by TKO round 2.
Badr Hari (-220) vs. Alistair Overeem (+190)
What a great way for Overeem to get embarassed and derail the momentum he had built up in the longest undefeated streak he's had since 2003. Hari tried playing by MMA rules in his last K-1 fight, so the response is to... put him in another K-1 rules match against an MMA fighter? Okay.
Hari is really in the prime of his fighting career and among the best fighters in K-1 at this time. He is very very quick and has tons of power. Overeem has questionable gas and no ability to take punishment. If Hari can put a couple shots on target, this fight could be a 40-second affair. Badr Hari KO round 1.
This is an easy play for me – Hari is easily the winner here, and should be much more favored.
Tatsuya Kawajiri vs. Kozo Takeda *
This is probably the best of the ridiculous crossover matches. There was a time when Kozo would simply steamroll a wrestler like Kawajiri, but Kozo is long past his prime days, although he’s still a threat, and Kawajiri has been working very hard on his striking. This means we get to see Kawajiri test out his newly developed skills in a relatively safe environment. The fight doesn’t mean anything for either fighter, although a knockout loss would be embarrassing to either one of them. Just think of it as a yardstick by which to measure Kawajiri’s improvement.
I think the most likely result is that Takeda works low kicks and a point-fighting game to cruise to a decision over a surprisingly game Kawajiri. Kozo Takeda by decision.
Hayato "Mach" Sakurai vs. Katsuyori Shibata
Embarassing. Mach won't have to cut for this fight, so expect him to be overweight and fight like garbage. Shibata is awful, though, so Mach should still find a way to finish him off without having trained. Hayato "Mach" Sakurai by submission round 2.
Semmy Schilt (-600) vs. Siala "Mighty Mo" Siliga (+450)
Schilt would handle Mighty Mo under pure K-1 rules, and has an even stronger edge over him under MMA rules, since he’s actually got some ground skills. He’s also about ten time’s Mo’s size, so he can just muscle him to the ground if need be. A ridiculous fight, then. Semmy Schilt by submission round 1.
"Kinniku Mantaro" vs. Bob Sapp
I wonder if we’ll ever see something like this in the UFC. Sapp will be fighting a standout amateur wrestler who will be paid to wear the mask of an anime character and fight in character. Sapp is no longer “the beast” and is just here for the paycheck. I expect another horrible, gutless performance by Sapp unless he knocks this guy out very early. If “Mantaro” can land a takedown, or even a good punch, expect another embarrassing loss for Sapp. The guy has lost what little heart for fighting he ever had. "Kinniku Mantaro" by TKO round 1.
Daisuke Nakamura (-110) vs. Hideo Tokoro (-115)
Tokoro is extremely overrated because he’s exciting. The guy is borderline retarded, and he’s very small, fragile, open to punishment, occasionally vulnerable to submissions, and very outsized here. Nakamura is a big time sleeper here, being much larger than Tokoro and a more technical, well-schooled grappler. This should be very exciting. Daisuke Nakamura by submission round 2.
I think these odds were set by someone who doesn’t know who Daisuke Nakamura is. He should be clearly favored, so I must make a play here.
Ikuhisa "Minowaman" Minowa vs. Errol Zimmerman
Zimmerman is a pretty good K-1 kickboxer, and Minowa is insane. Minowa should be able to easily run into him, tip him over, and heel hook him. If Minowa exchanges at all, he has a very good chance of taking a nap. I’m going to assume he does the intelligent thing and gets the fight to the ground. Minowaman by submission round 1.
My plays:
1u on Tamura to win 1.2u
1u on JZ Calvancante to win .91u
1u on Shinya Aoki to win 1.2u
1u on Jerome Lebanner to win .95u
1u on Badr Hari to win .45u
1u on Daisuke Nakamura to win .91u
Mir vs. Lesnar 2 or This is What Happens When Bad Meets Evil
By Warren Piece (warrenpiece@mmaratings.net)
So, the UFC Heavyweight mini-touranment has finally shaken out and we are left with Mir vs. Lesnar 2 to decide who is the true champ. To be honest, I am quite content with this result. Lesnar defeated Randy decisively and without controversy at UFC 91 and Mir did the same to Big Nog at 92. Furthermore, this sets up a pretty decent sequel to the UFC 81 bout that, in a nutshell, consisted of Brock laying waste to Frank before getting caught in a leg lock.
I predict Lesnar takes Mir in the rematch for the following reasons: A) Although Frank's new "three-strikes and you're out" technique looked solid and worked like a charm against Minotauro, I don't see him knocking Brock down or out; and B) Frank admitted (if my clouded memory serves me correctly/who has time for research/what am I, a journalist?) during his post-fight roganview after his win over Lesnar that he couldn't submit the Behemoth's neck or arms and that a leg or foot was his only option. What are the chances of Mir taking Lesnar's lower appendages once more? I'm sure Lesnar will be practicing the shit out of those particular submission defenses/escapes. No, I see Lesnar taking Frank down with ease as he did in their first meeting, avoiding Mir's submission attempts and pounding him out to unify the belts.
Moving on to public perception issues: I believe that the majority of fight fans see, both, Lesnar and Mir as "the bad guy". 
Lesnar for his WWE background and too-quick shot at the title and Mir for his distasteful personality and all the wacky shit he says on television. It is my opinion that the Lesnar-hating is unwarranted. Sure, nobody with his level of inexperience or short MMA record gets a title shot, but Brock defeated Randy Couture (who many considered to be THE best HW in the world going into that fight) with little difficulty. If he had lost that bout and looked shitty, everyone could tell Dana and Co. that they fucked up, but he didn’t...he looked dominant. So what's to complain about/what’s to hate? On the other hand (again, in my opinion...sorry Eric), there is plenty to validly hate about Frank Mir: A) His new entrance song is Nas' "Hate Me Now". Thanks, but I already did and don't need your permission to do so; B) He was a prick, in general, throughout his term on TUF 8 to his team and everyone else; C) He now fancies himself a bone-
breaker and told Rogan that he plans to make Lesnar famous with the break he does on him. Who else in MMA desires to break the bones of their fellow combatants (I know…Steve Cantwell), put them in the hospital and out of commission so that they may no longer earn a living in order to take care of themselves and/or their families? And is this a smart thing to be saying when MMA is not yet sanctioned in many states because it is perceived to be too violent a sport? NO; AND D) He has stated publicly that he would be willing to break his own mother’s arm. Need I comment further on that one? That all said, Brock is the good guy and Frank is the bad guy. So now you all know who to root for. You’re welcome. But seriously, it will be interesting to see how their PPV fares buy-wise if fans continue to dislike both men leading up to the fight.
Regardless of who wins their rematch, I can’t wait to see the victor take on the winner of the rumored UFC 96 matchup between Gabe Gonzaga and Shane Carwin. Cheick Kongo? Not so much.
December 28, 2008
Professional Female MMA Fighters…Say What?
By Katrina Belcher (katrinabelcher@mmaratings.net)
Being a female in the MMA world, I've talked to a lot of men about my involvement in this industry. I find most men are either for, or against, women fighters in the world of MMA. Not one man I've spoken to is on the fence. They either think it's cool, or they don't like to see females fighting. I’m not sure we’ll ever be able to change the minds of men who feel that way...they just don't like it. They don't like to see "delicate" females bloodying each other up. Some women don't like to watch men hit each other in the boxing ring. It's just how they feel. And it doesn't mean the person is good, bad or evil. Personal preference.
Should Women Fighters Earn the Same as their Male Counterparts?
Setting the above feelings aside -- let's talk about earnings for female fighters in the MMA industry. Certainly it's true you cannot compare a no-named female MMA fighter against the likes of a Randy Couture or Chuck Liddell, but a few years ago you wouldn't have been able to compare Chuck Liddell to the likes of Randy Couture. HOWEVER, I think the point here is that it's obvious female fighters have a MUCH longer way to go, before they earn the types of fees awarded to their male counterparts. You may not know who a female fighter is, because female fights are not televised, publicized and put on PPV like the men's fights are -- but that does not mean they aren't well-known. They just aren't well-known by the major populace. And they aren't well-known because they're not good or haven't been around -- rather, it's because, well, see my prior sentence. Female fights aren't yet in the public eye. Consequently, female fighting events and venues don't earn the same amount of revenue as the all male fighting events. It stands to reason, then, that they don't yet have the same earning power as male fighters.
Just like in an "office" work environment, however, I personally feel that if the fight card has men and women on it, then it's only fair to pay the same win/place/participation fee to each fighter -- whether a man or woman. That isn't happening yet. I know of events where the male champion will earn $2,500 for the night - and the woman only gets $500. IMHO that is sexist and unfair, especially when you consider that the training each female fighter received, the training gear she bought, the time spent, and the fees she paid for her training, for the gym/training center and her training time were the same fees paid by her male counterpart. Think about it. No one has ever said to a woman "hey - because you're just a female, we'll only charge you 1/3 of what we're charging the guys for their training, or for your training gear..." That's never happened. I don't think anyone would dare!
So should female fighters in the MMA industry get paid the same as their male counterparts? Absolutely. The question is...how? IMO I think we need to increase visability. Ask your manager to get fights for you on those all male cards. Encourage other female fighters to ask their managers to do the same. And when you commit to a fight -- GO! No excuses. Show up and fight. Prove your value. Soon, the people who are watching will turn into fans. Fans will want to see more of you...and will make sure to attend your fight events. They'll even bring their friends. After a while, female fight venues will bring in as much revenue as their male counterparts - and a higher paycheck for their fighters.
So no, female MMA fighters don't earn the same fees as the men do -- yet. That's okay though, 'cause, well --we're fighters, we're women and we're patient. We'll get there soon.
December 27, 2008
UFC 92: The Ultimate 2008
UFC 92: The Ultimate 2008 was held by the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) on December 27, 2008 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
The main event featured UFC Light Heavyweight champion Forrest Griffin taking on #1 contender Rashad Evans.
The co-main event featured UFC interim Heavyweight champion Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and the #1 heavyweight contender and former UFC Heavyweight champion Frank Mir. The winner will face UFC Heavyweight Champion Brock Lesnar for a unification bout in early 2009. The third main event featured former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Quinton "Rampage" Jackson against Wanderlei Silva. Post UFC 92 Notes - The End of an Era
| Match | Winner | Loser | Method | Round | Time |
| 1 | Patrick Barry | Dan Evensen | TKO (Low Kicks) | 1 | 2:36 |
| 2 | Brad Blackburn | Ryo Chonan | Decision (Unanimous) | 3 | 5:00 |
| 3 | Matt Hamill | Reese Andy | TKO (Punches) | 2 | 2:19 |
| 4 | Antoni Hardonk | Mike Wessel | TKO (Punches) | 2 | 2:09 |
| 5 | Yushin Okami | Dean Lister | Decision (Unanimous) | 3 | 5:00 |
| 6 | Cheick Kongo | Mustapha al Turk | TKO (Elbows and Punches) | 1 | 4:37 |
| 7 | Quinton Jackson | Wanderlei Silva | KO (Punch) | 1 | 3:21 |
| 8 | CB Dollaway | Mike Massenzio | TKO (Punches) | 1 | 3:01 |
| 9 | Frank Mir | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | TKO (Punches) | 2 | 1:54 |
| 10 | Rashad Evans | Forrest Griffin | TKO (Punches)* | 3 | 2:46 |
UFC 92: The Ultimate 2008 - 10. Rashad Evans vs. Forrest Griffin
Light Heavyweight Championship bout: Rashad Evans defeated Forrest Griffin via TKO (strikes) at 2:46 of round 3. Note that this was originally listed as a submission due to strikes, but was later changed.
Rashad Evans and Forrest Griffin were each awarded $60,000 for Fight of the Night.
FightMetric TPR Report
UFC 92: The Ultimate 2008 - 9. Frank Mir vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Interim Heavyweight Championship bout: Frank Mir defeated Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira via TKO at 1:54 of round 2.
UFC 92: The Ultimate 2008 - 8. CB Dollaway vs. Mike Massenzio
Middleweight bout: C.B. Dollaway defeated Mike Massenzio via TKO (strikes) at 3:01 of round 1.
Read More......UFC 92: The Ultimate 2008 - 7. Quinton Jackson vs. Wanderlei Silva
Light Heavyweight bout: Quinton Jackson defeated Wanderlei Silva via KO (left hook) at 3:21 of round 1.
Quinton Jackson was awarded $60,000 for Knockout of the Night.
UFC 92: The Ultimate 2008 - 6. Cheick Kongo vs. Mustapha al Turk
Heavyweight bout: Cheick Kongo defeated Mustafa Al Turk via TKO (strikes) at 4:37 of round 1.
Read More......UFC 92: The Ultimate 2008 - 5. Yushin Okami vs. Dean Lister
Middleweight bout: Yushin Okami defeated Dean Lister via unanimous decision (30-27).
Read More......UFC 92: The Ultimate 2008 - 4. Antoni Hardonk vs. Mike Wessel
Heavyweight bout: Antoni Hardonk defeated Mike Wessel via TKO (striking) at 2:09 of Round 2.
Read More......UFC 92: The Ultimate 2008 - 3. Matt Hamill vs. Reese Andy
Light Heavyweight bout: Matt Hamill defeated Reese Andy via TKO (strikes) at 2:19 of Round 2.
Read More......UFC 92: The Ultimate 2008 - 2. Brad Blackburn vs. Ryo Chonan
Welterweight bout: Brad Blackburn defeated Ryo Chonan via unanimous decision (29-28).
Read More......UFC 92: The Ultimate 2008 - 1. Patrick Barry vs. Dan Evensen
Heavyweight bout: Patrick Barry defeated Dan Evensen via TKO (leg kicks) at 2:36 of Round 1.
Read More......UFC 92: The Ultimate 2008 (Predictions)
Click the stars to rate how good you think it will be. Click here for the official line-up.
UFC 92: The Ultimate 2008 is to be held by the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) on December 27, 2008 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
The main event will feature UFC Light Heavyweight champion Forrest Griffin taking on #1 contender Rashad Evans.
The co-main event will feature UFC interim Heavyweight champion Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and the #1 heavyweight contender and former UFC Heavyweight champion Frank Mir. The winner will face UFC Heavyweight Champion Brock Lesnar for a unification bout in early 2009. The third main event will feature former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Quinton "Rampage" Jackson against Wanderlei Silva. UFC 92 Preview - Ultimate 2008 indeed!
UFC 92 weigh-in results:
Forrest Griffin (205) vs. Rashad Evans (203)
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (246) vs. Frank Mir (251)
CB Dollaway (186) vs. Mike Massenzio (184)
Wanderlei Silva (203) vs. Quinton Jackson (206)
Cheick Kongo (233) vs. Mustapha al Turk (237)
Yushin Okami (185) vs. Dean Lister (186)
Antoni Hardonk (246) vs. Mike Wessel (260)
Matt Hamill (205) vs. Reese Andy (206)
Ryo Chonan (171) vs. Brad Blackburn (170)
Dan Evensen (242) vs. Patrick Barry (233) 
December 23, 2008
UFC 92 Preview - Ultimate 2008 indeed!
By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)
Ultimate 2008 indeed. This card brings us two sterling matchups in the prestige division of MMA, light-heavyweight, featuring four of the best fighters in the world. While that alone would be enough to make this a must-see card, we also get a bout featuring a living legend in Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, as well as a variety of fights from talented and exciting fighters.
I can hardly imagine a better Christmas present than curling up on a cold holiday night with a nice steaming bowl of MMA. Have a happy holiday, dear readers, and as always, enjoy the fights.
Champ Forrest Griffin (-130) vs. Rashad Evans (+105) (for UFC light heavyweight title)
Rashad is still riding the excitement of his monsterous KO of division fixture Chuck Lidell, while Forrest seems to have answered all questions about his ability in crippling Rampage Jackson in a very tightly contested decision. Surprisingly, while both fighters entered those fights as heavy underdogs, the consensus seems to be that those victories have established each of these fighters as top dogs in the division, taking the revered places formerly occupied by their vanquished adversaries.
I think Forrest rightly deserves that position, but Rashad has a long way to go to show he truly belongs. Rashad has a very unusual style of fighting, where he does very little, but seems to use what little he does to cause his opponent to do even less. (I would suggest comparing Rashad's FightMetric stats to other winning fighters.)
Forrest has an unusual fighting style as well-defending his weaknesses while using controlled offense to slowly grind his opponents down.
Rashad has power but I don’t think he is going to be able to reliably land punches like the one he did on Chuck. Chuck famously has poor defense and just eats shots to the face. Forrest knows he doesn’t have the same kind of chin chuck does, so he will protect himself. He also won’t get as frustrated as Chuck did if Rashad tries to slow the fight down to his crippled mutant pace. Rashad also is giving up several inches of height and reach to Forrest, so it will be very hard for him to get ahead of Griffin there. Forrest doesn’t have an outstanding chin, but I seriously doubt Rashad is going to test it very thoroughly, having to come through Forrest’s long range kicks and jabs to get to him.
I think Forrest can stop Rashad’s takedowns. He’s a much bigger man, and very good at using his size to wear down opponents. Rashad had serious trouble wrestling with Tito, and didn’t really dominate Bisping the way a monster wrestler should if he wants to take Forrest down.
I think Rashad’s nervous energy, failed takedowns, and difficulty in getting past Forrest’s reach will wear him out by the third round, in a fight that’s more meat and potatoes than fireworks. Forrest doesn’t have the kind of killer offense to put a decisive finish together on a talented fighter like Rashad without Evans being horribly gassed, but it might happen if the damage just starts to accumulate.
While this is a very important fight, so the importance might lend it excitement, I don’t think that we will see any big explosions for the highlight reel from either man here. Forrest Griffin by decision.
I think Forrest’s chances are a bit better than the current -130 odds would indicate, so I’ve made a play on him.
(Interim Champion) Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (-350) vs. Frank Mir (+305) (for interim UFC heavyweight title)
Frank Mir has one chance in this fight and that’s the kneebar. Ricco and Barnett caught Nog in kneebars, and Mir rolled for them against Lesnar and Ian Freeman. Mir even talked about kneebars in a recent interview. However, Ricco and Barnett are much better grapplers than Mir, so I think that’s a very slim chance. Other than that, Nog has better standup, grappling, cardio, and chin. I don’t care what Mir says, he’s never going to have the cardio for a 5 round fight, and the chances of him finishing Nog are almost nil. This fight is going to be an embarrassment for Mir. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira by TKO round 3.
Although -325 to -350 on Nogueira is giving Mir way more of a chance than my handicapping does, that strong of a favorite is not good for a standalone bet. What I have done instead is parlayed Nogueira with many of my other bets, in order to boost the payoff of those fights.
C.B. Dollaway (-150) vs. Mike Massenzio (+140)
It’s always difficult to predict the results when a fighter is just coming off of TUF. Many of them had previously only trained part-time, or only been given a small share of the attention and training that a top-level UFC fighter gets. Furthermore, some guys get on the show and succeed due to their wealth of experience, but don’t have a bright future because they’ve already achieved their ceiling as fighters (Krzysztof Soszynski) whereas others get through the show on simple raw talent, and use it as a springboard to develop new world-class skills (Rashad Evans).
Dollaway’s dual submission losses to Amir Sadollah don’t bode well for him against someone with as impressive a submission finish rate as Massenzio. However, most of Massenzio’s victims (with the exception of Dan Miller) were terrible fighters or not very good on the ground. Dollaway has an unusual standup game for a wrestler, with all his kicks, as wrestlers usually hate having their feet off the ground for any reason. It seems effective, although perhaps those kicks are part of the reason C.B. has gassed so frequently in the past. Gassing at 170 is a terrible problem, as the division is full of well-conditioned athletes, and if Dollaway can’t overcome it, he’s never going to go anywhere. Again, this is an area that Dollaway has supposedly improved upon since the show, but when it comes to gas, I believe it when I see it, since it’s a very tricky thing that depends upon fight style and ring awareness, beyond just getting out there and running laps in practice.
This is a very tough fight to predict, but I’m going to take Massenzio, earning myself some bad Karma by predicting against the prospect. C.B.’s potential submission and gas problems simply loom too large as unknowns for me to feel comfortable taking C.B. Mike Massenzio by decision.
Quinton Jackson (+110) vs. Wanderlei Silva (-115)
We know the story. Jackson is a fantastic wrestler with good boxing, better power, and a fantastic chin. Silva is the only guy with the ability to overcome that chin (no, the Shogun fight doesn’t count) but he has the aggression and power to do so at any time.
Since the last time they’ve fought, Wanderlei has gotten smaller, although he seems to have improved his already-legendary cardio. Rampage has sharpened up his game quite a bit, although he’s become more of a one-dimensional boxer. Rampage was well on his way to winning their Pride 28th match, until he gassed out and was caught hard. If Rampage can get back to his roots, working a sharp defensive game and landing big punches at the appropriate time I think this fight could be a repeat of that one.
Wanderlei has recuperative powers on par with the best in the game, but he doesn’t have the rock-solid ability to shrug off a punch in the first place that Rampage does. I think Rampage can drop him, and Page has the controlled aggression to finish if Wanderlei doesn’t immediately lock him down in his excellent defensive guard. Rampage also has the power to drop Wanderlei stone cold and finished with one shot, and will gladly do so if he gets a chance.
Rampage’s mental state is totally unknown. The guy is obviously nuts, but he’s also crazy enough to not be concerned at all about losing two fights in such brutal fashion, so it might even work in his favor. I think the change of camps will be very good for him, because the most important aspect of Rampage’s fight preparation has always been his training partners – sparring and hitting the pads. He’s still working with many of the same coaches, aside from Juanito Ibarra, and I think we’ll see somewhat of a return to a more versatile Rampage, with his destructive ground and pound attack backing up his slugging.
Wanderlei has one of the most impressive undefeated streaks in the sport’s history, so he cannot be counted out. He’s a very special individual, and he’s able to finish a fight if given any opening. However, I think Rampage’s power, toughness, and size will be too much for him in this fight, and Quinton Jackson will begin his climb back to the top using one of the sport’s legends as a ladder. Quinton Jackson by KO round 2.
With Jackson available at +110 at some books, I’m liking the odds a lot here. I think bettors are focused too much on past results and not enough on the way these guys have been fighting recently. I think this is a great play.
Mustapha Al-Turk (+250) vs. Cheick Kongo (-305)
Kongo is a great kickboxer with tons of power and a variety of strikes, and a woeful ground game. His wrestling, especially from the clinch is okay, mostly because he’s so strong and athletic. Mustapha is basically the opposite, with a underdeveloped flailing striking game (lot of that going around in the heavyweight division these days) and a strong wrestling and grappling based attack. It’s a prototypical style vs. style matchup—can Kongo keep the fight standing long enough to put Al-Turk away, or can Mustapha control Kongo enough to find a submission? While Kongo has the power to capitalize on the gaps in Mustapha’s defense, I think that this fight favors the grappler. I think Turk can take Kongo down, control him, and pound away until he finds a submission or gets a decision. After all, if Heath Herring’s ground control is good enough for a victory, I don’t see why Mustapha will come up short. Mustapha Al-Turk by submission round 2.
Dean Lister (+320) vs. Yushin Okami (-350)
This is an absolutely terrible fight. Okami should be fighting top contenders and on a fast-track back into a title shot with Anderson Silva, instead of the talented but undeserving Thales Leites. Lister has never really been able to get his world-class submission wrestling to work well in MMA, and has serious problems with his standup, if not his chin (and look at that thing!). Okami is a very strategic fighter, who will win (or lose) a boring decision before he takes a risk that doesn’t have a high chance of reward.
Okami should have a marked advantage standing, with his long arms and counter-punching style, and he will definitely have an advantage in the clinch and defending takedowns. His grappling skills are good enough that he should be able to survive in Lister’s guard, although he should try to keep the fight a striking exchange as much as possible. Because Lister’s only way to threaten Okami is on the ground, and he can only get him there by pulling guard, this is a fairly predictable fight. The only question will be Okami’s willingness to fight in Lister’s guard. Some ground and pound specialists refuse to deviate from their game, even if it’s obviously the better option. Hopefully Okami is smarter than that and will just point his way to a decision victory. I don’t think Okami has the offensive firepower or aggression to put Lister away. Yushin Okami by decision.
I like Okami for a play here, because I don't think Lister has anything to offer him whatsoever.
Antoni Hardonk (-345) vs. Mike Wessel (+285)
Hardonk is going to hammer Wessel. Hardonk cannot wrestle at all, and his submissions are poor, but he is at least a pretty competent kickboxer (and those leg kicks sell wheelchairs). Wessel fights like it’s UFC 10, running around trying to bully guys and fling hays. Against Hardonk that just spells jab, lowkick, knockout. Hopefully Mike will have the decency to go out like that instead of waste our time trying to work on the ground futilely. Antoni Hardonk by KO round 1.
Reese Andy (+300) vs. Matt Hamill (-385)
Hamill is going to monster Andy. Matt is an incredibly powerful guy, with solid striking and very good wrestling. I think Andy’s wrestling skill set is below average for the division, and if Hamill can absolutely manhandle a guy like Tim Boetsch, he’s going to smear Andy all over the canvas. Hamill’s striking has come a long way, and Andy really just looked ineffective against even a very drained and out-of-focus Brandon Vera. The one worry for me is that Hamill fought a very dumb fight against Rich Franklin, and simply looked lost. Still, against Andy, so long as Matt keeps coming forward and throwing punches, he’ll be fine, so it doesn’t matter if he doesn’t know what to do, so long as he keeps fighting. Hamill isn’t the most technically refined striker on the feet or on the ground, but he has a good ability to deal damage, and I don’t think Andy can take the amount of punishment Hamill can dish out for very long. Matt Hamilly by TKO round 2.
Brad Blackburn (+185) vs. Ryo Chonan (-170)
Chonan is an ugly fighter, with an awkward defensive, counter-everything style and a lack of strong finishing potential, with a lukewarm submission game and a distinct lack of pop in his strikes. Chonan’s greatest weakness is his wrestling—while he has the judo skills to get takedowns when he needs them, he is frequently overpowered and ends up defending from his back. While he generally protects himself well with his guard, Ryo doesn’t offer a big threat for sweeping or submitting.
Blackburn is a run-of-the-mill fighter with one area outstanding strength—his grappling is sub-par and his wrestling is nothing special, but he has pretty crisp boxing and excellent power. That’s bad for Chonan, who, while he doesn’t have a bad chin, despite getting a reputation for having one after being knocked out twice in a row in short order, does seem to have a problem when he’s severely outgunned in the power department. Blackburn doesn’t have an iron chin himself, having been wobbled in many of the exchanges that he eventually won. The difference here is that Blackburn can take Chonan’s punches much better than Chonan can take Brad’s, so unless Ryo is very sharp defensively and just chops away with leg kicks from the outside, Blackburn can win this fight on the feet.
Blackburn’s grappling isn’t great, so if Ryo can put him on his back, he theoretically might be able to find something to finish him with, although it’s worth noting that the only submission hold victory Ryo has was that crazy flying heel hook, so it’s more likely Ryo would simply listlessly ground and pound until he is stood up.
Because Blackburn has a much better chance of finishing the fight at any point in the standup, and has the athleticism to keep the fight on the feet against Ryo’s weak wrestling, I think Blackburn has a very good chance to win this fight, and will probably be undervalued. Despite Brad’s weaknesses, he’s simply a poor style matchup for Ryo. Chonan is more versatile and I think a higher-quality fighter, so this fight will be close. Brad Blackburrn by decision.
at these odds, I have to take a chance with Blackburn.
Pat Barry (-205) vs. Dan Evensen (+190)
Dan Evenson is another one of those guys that is only in the UFC because of his weight class. He’s nothing more than a big flailer, as Kongo showed. Barry is a kickboxer with experience fighting in the laughable Chuck Norris produced WCL, as well as some experience in the American arm of K-1. With that pedigree he likely has the chops to take Evensen apart, but this is heavyweight, so a flailing fist could put him out at any point. This is a pretty pointless fight. In fact, I’ll go ahead and say the only way this fight could have any relevance is if Berry massively outclasses Evensen, handles him easily, and then announces he’s going to cut down to LHW, where his 5’11” height and accompanying reach will be less of a disadvantage for his striking. Pat Barry by KO round 1.
I have such little faith in Evenson that I think that Berry at -205 is a good play.
My official plays:
Barry 1u to win .49u
Hamill 1u to win .26u
Hardonk 1u to win .29u
Okami 1u to win .25u
Mustapha Al-Turk 1u to win 3u
Rampage Jackson 1u to win 1.1u
Brad Blackburn 1u to win 1.85u
Parlay: Mustapha Al-Turk, Okami, Blackburn, Hamill .33u to win 5.14u
Parlay: Jackson, Nogueira, Franklin (UFC 93), Griffin 1u to win 9.6u
Parlay: Anderson Silva (won), Noguiera, Griffin .5u to win .83u
Parlay: Anderson Silva (won), Noguiera, Rampage .5u to win .9u
Welcome Katrina Belcher!
I’m happy to welcome Katrina Belcher as a contributor to MMA Ratings.
Katrina is The Ultimate Female Fighter. That is she is the founder and editor of TheUltimateFemaleFighter.com, a site designed as an outreach for industry information and connecting females in the fight industry.
Katrina is also the founder of The National Association for MMA Fight Professionals (or NAFMMAF), which was founded to provide comprehensive benefits and support to MMA fight professionals.
Katrina will be adding her thoughts, opinion, and analysis on a variety of MMA topics. Make sure you subscribe to updates so you don't miss any of her articles and let her know what you think. You can comment on her posts, send her an email, and be sure to rate her writing using the rating stars.
December 17, 2008
TUF 8 Finale - No event could have made up for having to watch Junie
By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)
Well, I regret the fact that TUF 8 even existed as a season. I regret watching grown men drink urine, behave like mental patients in ways that were more pathetic and depressing than entertaining, and I regret that Dana White encouraged all of this foolishness. I regret that I got to know Frank Mir better. These were the reasons MMA Ratings did not provide a breakdown for this card, but now I regret it, because I made a good amount of money betting on Gouveia, Bader, and Johnson, and now my professional scruples prevent me from adding it to my official betting history.
Junie Browning vs. Dave Kaplan
Maybe Dave Kaplan does have a good chin afterall.
Too bad he looked awful and hopeless here. Junie looked improved, but I previously thought that he looked awful, so that's not saying much. I still don't think he has the level of potential people were talking about. Still, he showed a basic competence in all facets of the game, so that's something. I still think Junie's too stupid to ever get it together and be a great fighter, even if he had the physical potential.
Eliot Marshall vs. Jules Bruchez
Elliot Marshall showed why Bader had to LnP him so badly: the guy has pretty decent hands. Still, it's going to be a big jump up from mugging the hapless Jules Bruchez to anyone else in the UFC's 205lb division, where almost everyone has better striking than Elliot and the wrestling to keep it on the feet.
Jason MacDonald vs. Wilson Gouveia
Macdonald is a guy that's had a really surprising amount of success given how one-dimensional his style is. He isn't a very good striker, and his wrestling is poor. Heck, even when fighting Demian Maia, he chose to try to grapple with him. Gouveia, on the other hand, is a multi-dimensional threat with his powerful, accurate striking and excellent submission game. More than anything else, what's held him back is that Gouveia has fought dumb in the past and otherwise seemed to have mental problems, but if he can work those out, he could be a solid fighter in the division.
Anthony Johnson vs. Kevin Burns
Explosive athleticism is often a codeword for "black" in MMA, but that's what Johnson really has. Burns has a good chin. Johnson really was faster, stronger, and more agile than Burns in this fight, but he was also simply better on the feet. I'd like to see Rumble fight Paul Taylor. Johnson's top game is pretty sad stuff though, and Burn's inability to do anything off his back really shows that the Carneiro sub was a huge fluke. It was good to see all restored to rightness in the MMA universe and the specter of that ridiculous eye-poke TKO banished.
Ryan Bader vs. Vinicius Magalhaes
Bader has competent enough striking to beat the likes of Vinny, but I question whether even his wrestling is at an above-average level for the LHW division. Still, he has physical potential and a solid base, so maybe he can continue to improve and actually be someone who matters. I expect Vinny will have the same fate as many jiu-jitsu guys who don't like to get hit, and just fade away into headlining local shows before he retires to just teach jiu-jitsu.
Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Shane Primm
Kryzstoff still looks uncomfortable and awkward on the ground. Primm doesn't belong in the UFC right now. Kryzstoff should leave too, so I don't have to spell his name. It's going to take a lot more than B- striking and mean looking tattoos to last more than a few fights in the UFC's LHW division.
Phillipe Nover vs. Efrain Escudero
Nover vs. Escudero. Now there are two guys that looked like they belong in the UFC. Nover has a good, well-rounded game, but without big improvements in his wrestling, his future opponents are going to be able to do what Escudero did: dictate where the fight took place to where they match up better with him. Unless Nover is better than his opponent both on the feet and on the ground, he's going to have trouble.
December 16, 2008
Ultimate Fight Night 16 Notes - Krom Was Pleased
By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)
UFC: Fight for the Troops was somewhat of a throwback event, with the raucous and unruly crowd, the booing, the late stoppages, generally poor refereeing (breaking up belly-to-back, are you serious?), and the brutality. I think the UFC really needs to do some kind of planning next time there’s a bad injury or serious knockout. Viewers at home aren’t stupid enough to not notice that Yoshida is still down, so something needs to be said, even if it’s the standard lines about great doctors, the safety of the fighters, and how he’s leaving the ring on a stretcher for precautionary reasons.
I’m going to get up on my political, non-MMA soapbox for a minute here, so skip to the next paragraph if you just want MMA from me. This event shouldn’t have existed. It’s ridiculous that we have to go to some third party to raise money to treat our injured troops. The government has assumed responsibility for choosing how to ‘spend’ the lives of our military, but it won’t deal with the consequences. Yet President Bush and the Republicans managed to pass massive tax cuts. Maybe they should have held onto some of that money to help out the soldiers they supposedly support. Of course, the Democrats don’t get a free ride on this either, since they have done very little to stand up for the veterans in the face of the “pro troop” party. It’s just sad and wrong that we have to turn to Dana White for this. Remember that in the next election, and maybe we can vote in some more help for these veterans. We may not be in Iraq any longer at that point, but these men’s lives will still be shattered.
Ben Saunders vs. Brandon Wolff
Saunders looks absolutely huge for the weight class, doesn’t he? He has a lot of potential, and a good skill base, but he’s going to need to do more than crush the hapless Brandon Wolff’s of the world if he wants to be a top fighter. Still, he’s being developed nicely, in an environment that is much lower-pressure than what faces the winners of the show.
Jim Miller vs. Matt Wiman
Well I was almost completely wrong in this fight. Wiman was a flash in the pan, his standup sucks, and Miller either drastically improved his standup or I saw things incorrectly in his fight with David Baron. Miller has strong wrestling and a nasty ground game, so he has a lot of potential, especially since the UFC’s 155 doesn’t have a lot of strong strikers.
Corey Hill vs. Dale Hartt
Seriously gross. I’ll never be able to look at Corey’s toothpick limbs again without worrying they’re going to go all gumby on me. A shame, too, since Corey was beating up on Dale Hartt, who’s going to wash out of the UFC in short order, despite having this ‘W’ on his record.
Eddie Sanchez vs. Justin McCully
What a terrible fight. McCully looked better than normal here, which isn’t saying much. Sanchez looked horrible, wading around helplessly and getting nothing done. If only the fight had been 20 seconds longer, so we could have seen a finish. If only the fight had been 15 minutes shorter.
Tim Credeur vs. Nate Loughran
This fight went the way I expected the Wiman/Miller fight to go. Credeur’s standup looked really poor, but at least he had some. Loughran’s psycho-boy looks didn’t save him from the fact that he was just a punching bag for Mr. Roboto in this fight. Loughran has a lot of work to do, although at least he has really nasty grappling. Credeur’s well-roundedness is only going to get him so far, because he’s really not that great in any aspect of the game.
Johnny Rees vs. Steve Bruno
Bruno showed that, despite his horrible performance against Chris Wilson, he really can fight and wrestle. Rees looked like he needed about two more years of technique training, although physically he’s there already. Bruno is going to have world’s of trouble with the fact that the entire 170lb division is filled with guys that are both technically skilled and physically gifted.
Luigi Fioravanti vs. Brodie Farber
Luigi did what he needed to in order to win. I don’t think he looked particularly better or worse than in any previous fight, so his performance here does nothing to change my opinion of him.
Razak al-Hussan vs. Steve Cantwell
Why!? Why didn’t you tap, Mr. al-Hussan? Horrible. Hussan looked like garbage in this fight, with goofy TKD punches that were ineffective, and for a supposed ground specialist, he looked awful on his back, like Pride 1 level awfulness.
Mike Swick vs. Jonathan Goulet
Poor Goulet has no chin. Swick still has a long way to go to demonstrate that he can be someone important at 170 pounds, but I guess he still has some punching power and handspeed.
Josh Koscheck vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida
Impressive performance by Kos. His standup continues to improve, and even if he’s not the most fluid striker in the division, his explosve power is going to be a big asset if he can connect. This was really one of the cleanest knockouts in a long time, a knockout of the year candidate for sure. Yoshida looked tentative the entire fight. Many people overrated his standup, so it’s possible he was just uncomfortable exchanging with Koscheck. However, I think that Yoshida was also held back by nerves from being placed under so much pressure—his first high-profile UFC fight, a main event, and a foreigner main eventing such a nationalist-themed event.
Sometimes a big, flashy finish over a quality opponent is worth more than two decisions over two higher-quality fighters, in the eyes of fans and matchmakers. A brutal stoppage like this goes a long way towards erasing the memory of Koscheck “only” losing a decision to Thiago Alves, although in reality it was a very dominant decision. I only hope Yoshida can bounce back from this and live up to his potential as an exciting and skilled fighter.
December 13, 2008
UFC: Ultimate Fighter 8 Finale
Ultimate Fighter 8 Finale was held by the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) on December 13, 2008 at The Palms in Las Vegas, Nevada.
UFC interim Heavyweight champion Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and the #1 Heavyweight contender and former UFC Heavyweight champion Frank Mir fought for the UFC Interim Heavyweight title in December, after the completion of the series. UFC: Ultimate Fighter 8 Finale
| Match | Winner | Loser | Method | Round | Time |
| 1 | Roli Delgado | John Polakowski | Submission (Guillotine choke) | 2 | 2:18 |
| 2 | Shane Nelson | George Roop | Decision (Split) | 3 | 5:00 |
| 3 | Tom Lawlor | Kyle Kingsbury | Decision (Unanimous) | 3 | 5:00 |
| 4 | Eliot Marshall | Jules Bruchez | Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) | 1 | 1:27 |
| 5 | Krzysztof Soszynski | Shane Primm | Submission (Kimura) | 2 | 3:27 |
| 6 | Junie Allen Browning | David Kaplan | Submission (Armbar) | 2 | 1:32 |
| 7 | Wilson Gouveia | Jason MacDonald | Submission (Elbows) | 1 | 2:18 |
| 8 | Anthony Johnson | Kevin Burns | KO (Head Kick) | 3 | 0:28 |
| 9 | Ryan Bader | Vinicius Magalhaes | TKO (Punches) | 1 | 2:18 |
| 10 | Efrain Escudero | Phillipe Nover | Decision (Unanimous) | 3 | 5:00 |
