By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)
Sengoku: Sixth Battle, has the potential to be World Victory Road's best event to date. Unfortunately, that's not saying much. But with two grand prix finales and a few more fights with potential, let's be optimistic.
Muhammad "King Mo" Lawal vs. Fabio Silva
Lawal has enormous physical potential, and even more excitingly he is a student of the game with a deep technical understanding of wrestling and an interest in developing the same depth in his MMA career. Silva is an untechnical banger who may not have a lot of heart and certainly doesn’t have a lot of gas. Lawal isn’t quite a refined striker, but he does have reach and power, and I think he can tag Silva on the feet enough to hurt him. Even if he gets out of sorts, Lawal can most likely drive Silva through the mat with a big takedown and ground-and-pound to a finish Lawal TKO round 1.
Sergey Golyaev vs. Takanori Gomi
I’m sorry, but is Gomi Kimbo now? The guy can legitimately scrap, and hasn’t lost a step since the time he was considered one of the top lightweights in the world, so why must we watch him dismantle random euros? Gomi skeptics will look at Golyaev’s submission-rich win record and say that he’s got a shot at choking out the melon-headed Gomi while he flops around on his back. To that I say, Golyaev is not Nick Diaz or Marcus Aurelio. Sergey is going to get bombed. Gomi KO round 1.
Siyar Bahadurzada vs. Jorge Santiago
Santiago will finish what Cyborg should have. He’s better in every aspect of the game than Siyar, even if he has a bad chin and worse gas (although which is worse is debatable). Siyar is the weakest link in the tournament. Santiago is pretty well-rounded so it’s equally likely he gets a KO or a Sub, but he should finish, since his gas will get him in trouble should the fight go long. Siyar is open for leg-kicks, so maybe we could see a little of the old chop-em-down. Jorge Santiago by TKO round 1.
Kazuhiro Nakamura vs. Yuki Sasaki
Sasaki is coming off a win in a terrible fight with Yuki Kondo. He’s a sharp grappler, but he’s not really a high-quality fighter. Nakamura, for all his faults, is. Nakamura doesn’t have a lot of finishing power in any part of his game, but he’s well-rounded, game, and has great staying power. He can control this fight with his boxing and escape any sub attempts, but it’s doubtful he’ll be able to finish. Nakamura by decision.
Predicted MW Finals
I’m Predicting Santiago and Nakamura to progress to the finals. Again, Nakamura’s staying power will see him to victory, since Santiago will fade and may even get tagged in exchanges and hurt. Nakamura doesn’t have the stopping power Jorge does, but he can survive Jorge’s attacks much better than Jorge can endure his. Nakamura wins the decision here and his career gets a gentle kick in the behind as he starts over as a legit fighter at 185.
Joe Doerksen vs. Izuru Takeuchi
Fun fact: Takeuchi is 1-2 against Nate Marquardt. Joe Doerksen is a talented grappler who’s lately been getting knocked out by anyone that hit him with some power. This fight is just going to be crap, but I don’t know if Doerksen even trains anymore. Izuru will get the upset simply by wanting it more. Izuru Takeuchi by decision.
Mizuto Hirota vs. Kazunori Yokota
I don’t know either of these guys well enough, so… Striker vs. Grappler, lets go with the grappler. Yokota by decision.
Satoru Kitaoka vs. Eiji Mitsuoka
If a ground control game could be described as ‘nasty’ or ‘menacing’ Mitsuoka would have it. Kitaoka is a good grappler, but Mitsuoka is capable of smothering that, like he did to Joachim Hansen, and will. Mitsuoka by decision.
Predicted Lightweight Finals
Whoever wins Mitsuoka vs. Kitaoka would beat eithr Hirota or Yokota. That means I’m expected a Mitsuoka tournament victory. Go boring guy!
Bang Seung Hwan vs. Jorge Masvidal
In my opinion, either of these guys could beat most of the lightweights still in the tournament. Masvidal got unexpectedly plonked by Rodrigo Damm, but he’s a talented and tough fighter, and Hwan has a great brawling style that’s very exciting. I think Masvidal is more seasoned and well-rounded, so I favor him in this fight, but if Damm can plonk you, Hwan definitely has a great shot too. This will be a tough, competitive fight. Masvidal by decision.
Moise Rimbon vs. Rogerio Nogueira
Can lightning strike twice? Rogerio is the victim of the biggest “anything can happen” moment in MMA history to this date, and he’s in a position to repeat that feat here. Rimbon is an athletic, powerful guy, and a pretty good fighter, but he has no name value and is seen as nowhere near Nog’s level. He should be a walkover submission win for Rogerio, but he has the power to spring another upset if the stars align against Nogueira as they did when he stepped into the ring with Sokoudjou. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira by submission round 2.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
WVR Sengoku 6 Picks and Predictions
UFC 90 Notes
By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)
When the main event is a clunker or ends on a sour note, it's really hard for a fight card to have staying power and be remembered going forward. However, there were a lot of lessons to be learned about fighters on this card, so gamblers will be well-advised to remember UFC 90 when these guys step into the cage again.
Anderson Silva vs. Patrick Cote
Not much of a fight here, but the fact that Cote lasted as long as he did speaks to how much he’s improved the technical aspect of his standup game. Silva wasn’t as aggressive as he’s been in the past, but he still looked tight and dangerous, as expected.
Marcus Aurelio vs. Hermes Franca
This was an interesting fight. Aurelio is tough as hell, but lets fights walk away from him, as he did in this case. I knew Franca could bang and had bricks for hands, but I hadn’t seen that many leg kicks from him before. I don’t think he’s the new Thiago Alves, though, since the kicks weren’t that hard and the damage was mostly done by pure volume and Aurelio not blocking them at all.
Sean Sherk vs. Tyson Griffin
A lot of people were probably surprised by how tight Sherk’s boxing was. I was certainly surprised that the entire fight was a boxing match, but I knew Sherk could really work the sweet science, even if he still has almost no power.
Dan Miller vs. Matt Horwich
This fight surprised me, as I did not expect Horwich to out-grapple Miller like that. I’m not sure Miller really deserved to win the fight.
Rich Clementi vs. Gray Maynard
Rich did well in the first round, but Maynard was just too much to handle in the end. It's surprising how 'seasoned' Maynard seems in the ring, given his very small number of career fights.
Fabricio Werdum vs. Junior Dos Santos
I was surprised, not just that Santos won, but that Werdum was basically finished by one punch. Fabricio seemed to be a real tough dude, surviving protracted standup fights against Arlovski, Sergei, Overeem, Nogueira, and Gonzaga. I guess it goes back to something I’ve said earlier – heavyweights have so much power that any one of them is liable to get knocked out at any point. This was a real missed opportunity, as several people said that Santos was a live underdog, and I abstained from any involvement in the fight. Santos has good hands, but I'm not sold on him being a top-level fighter until I seem some wrestling and ground work from him.
Josh Koscheck vs. Thiago Alves
Koscheck must be insane to have taken this fight on short notice-he had a very good thing going in the division, and Alves is a monster. Another insane thing was how quickly he recovered whenever he was hurt. Alves is the most dangerous guy in the weight class, by far, exploding lethally at any moment. That said, I still think GSP can take him down and crush him on the ground. Koscheck has neglected his wrestling training, beefing up his standup. I expect he’ll be drilling it much harder now that he cannot take down anyone in the division at will, as he previously could. Koscheck is still slated to fight Yoshiyuki Yoshida on December 10, which is crazy. I’d imagine it’d take much longer than that for his leg to recover after it was pulped by Alves.
Thales Leites vs. Drew McFedries
Leites got hit, hard, but still has a good chin. McFedries really is dead on the ground, although Leites is very nasty. No real surprises here.
Post UFC 90 Notes
By Eric Kamander (eric@mmaratings.net)
Nicholas Bailey is away on vacation, so I'm doing my best to fill in for him.
UFC 90 was certainly a solid card. Going into it I wondered if it would compete with UFC 84 for best event of the year. Now I doubt that will be the case. Too bad we were not able to see more of the prelims (televised at least).
Before I get to the fights, let me just say "What's up with referees Todd Fredrickson and David Smith?!? These are the worst referee ever!!!"
Middleweight champ Anderson Silva vs. Patrick Cote
The most interesting part of this fight wound up being trying to figure out what Silva was thinking. Was he toying with Cote? Was he trying to give the fans their moneys worth? Did he have a grand plan? Or did he just have a problem countering a fighter that was trying to counter him?
Either way, the fight was very disappointing; due to Cote's knee collapsing quickly after he was found bragging about making it to the third round.
Did his knee really give out? (I certainly could not see anything in any of the dozen or so instant replays.) Was Silva mad?
Was Silva being disrespectful?
Obviously this match brought far more questions than answers.
Do we want to see a rematch?
Thiago Alves vs. Josh Koscheck
This was a much more predictable fight. Koscheck could not hang with Alves on the feet in spite of his improved stand up. Koscheck had a hard time taking Alves down, and when he did Alves showed a good defensive guard.
I have to give Koscheck credit, he is tough. Neither Alves nor St. Pierre were able to finish him.
Fabricio Werdum vs. Junior dos Santos
What did we learn in this fight? Well if you saw the video of dos Santos hitting the pads then you already knew this was going to happen (kidding).
Personally I think we just confirmed what we already knew, which is that Werdum is a lousy striker.
Tyson Griffin vs. Sean Sherk
Clearly the best fight on the card. Was Sherk's striking so much better now than when he fought Penn? Is Penn just that much better of a striker? Or does it just go to show what a few inches of reaches can do?
I think maybe all of the above.
Now we have to see what happens between Florian and Stevenson. Either way, we're going to see a rematch, either Sherk vs. Florian, or Penn vs. Sherk or Stevenon.
Rich Clementi vs. Gray Maynard
this fight got a lot of hate from the fans, but I thought it was a good, solid fight. Both fighters were always very active whether on the feet or scrambling for position. They just happened to neutralize each a bit. It was never a stalemate, and at no time should the fight have been stood up.
Thales Leites vs. Drew McFedries
Breaking news...Drew McFedries has no ground game.
I'm surprised Thales Leites was not on the main card, since theoretically he could be a potential opponent for Anderson SIlva.
Spencer Fisher vs. Shannon Gugerty
At first this seems like a step down for Fisher, but Gugerty gave him quite a fight, so maybe it wasn't. It's a shame that such a technical and exciting fighter as Fisher, who was once a title contender, is now established on the under cards.
Matt Horwich vs. Dan Miller
This was a nice little scrap. Not much else to say.
Marcus Aurelio vs. Hermes Franca
Wow! Marcus had absolutely nothing for Hermes. It's amazing to me that any of the judges (two to be exact) gave rounds to Marcus. After that beating I really don't know how Marcus can show his face in the cage again.
Josh Burkman vs. Pete Sell
Loosing to Pete Sell...where do you go from there? Ask Phil Baroni I guess.
Nic and I both went 8-2 on this card. From a betting perspective,...honestly I can't even interpret Nic's bets and parlays. All I know is I won big time on my underdog bet on dos Santos at MMA Playground.
Nicholas Bailey we be back soon for his unique brand of analysis and advice.
My Fight Pick History
Saturday, October 25, 2008
UFC 90: Silva vs. Cote
UFC 90: Silva vs. Côté was held on October 25, 2008 at the Allstate Arena in Rosemont, Illinois.
In the main event UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva faced off against Patrick Côté.
UFC 90 Picks and Predictions
| Match | Winner | Loser | Method | Round | Time |
| 1 | Pete Sell | Josh Burkman | Decision (Unanimous) | 3 | 5:00 |
| 2 | Hermes Franca | Marcus Aurelio | Decision (Unanimous) | 3 | 5:00 |
| 3 | Dan Miller | Matt Horwich | Decision (Unanimous) | 3 | 5:00 |
| 4 | Spencer Fisher | Shannon Gugerty | Submission (Triangle Choke) | 3 | 3:56 |
| 5 | Thales Leites | Drew McFedries | Submission (Rear Naked choke) | 1 | 1:18 |
| 6 | Sean Sherk | Tyson Griffin | Decision (Unanimous) | 3 | 5:00 |
| 7 | Junior dos Santos | Fabricio Werdum | TKO (Punches) | 1 | 1:21 |
| 8 | Gray Maynard | Rich Clementi | Decision (Unanimous) | 3 | 5:00 |
| 9 | Thiago Alves | Josh Koscheck | Decision (Unanimous) | 3 | 5:00 |
| 10 | Anderson Silva | Patrick Cote | TKO (Injured knee) | 3 | 0:39 |
* Thiago Alves was originally scheduled to face Diego Sanchez, who was forced to withdraw due to injury, and replaced by Josh Koscheck.
* Thales Leites was originally scheduled to face Goran Reljic, who was forced to withdraw due to injury.
* Hermes Franca was originally scheduled to face Gleison Tibau, who was forced to withdraw due to injury.
* Spencer Fisher was originally supposed to face Melvin Guillard, who was pulled from the card and replaced by Shannon Gugerty.
* Matt Horwich was originally supposed to face Ricardo Almeida, who was replaced by Dan Miller. Read More......
UFC 90: Silva vs. Cote - 10. Anderson Silva vs. Patrick Cote
Middleweight championship bout: Anderson Silva defeated Patrick Cote via TKO (knee injury) at 0:39 of Round 3.
Read More......UFC 90: Silva vs. Cote - 9. Josh Koscheck vs. Thiago Alves
Welterweight bout: Thiago Alves defeated Josh Koscheck via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 30-27).
Read More......UFC 90: Silva vs. Cote - 8. Rich Clementi vs. Gray Maynard
Lightweight bout: Gray Maynard defeated Rich Clementi via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27).
Read More......UFC 90: Silva vs. Cote - 7. Junior dos Santos vs. Fabricio Werdum
Heavyweight bout: Junior dos Santos defeated Fabricio Werdum via KO (uppercut) at 1:20 of Round 1.
Junior dos Santos was awarded $65,000 for Knockout of the Night.
UFC 90: Silva vs. Cote - 6. Sean Sherk vs. Tyson Griffin
Lightweight bout: Sean Sherk defeated Tyson Griffin via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28).
Sean Sherk and Tyson Griffin were each awarded $65,000 for Fight of the Night.
UFC 90: Silva vs. Cote - 5. Thales Leites vs. Drew McFedries
Middleweight bout: Thales Leites defeated Drew McFedries via Submission (rear naked choke) at 1:18 of round 1.
Read More......UFC 90: Silva vs. Cote - 4. Spencer Fisher vs. Shannon Gugerty
Lightweight bout: Spencer Fisher defeated Shannon Gugerty via Submission (triangle choke) at 3:56 of round 3.
Spencer Fisher was awarded $65,000 for Submission of the Night.
UFC 90: Silva vs. Cote - 3. Dan Miller vs. Matt Horwich
Middleweight bout: Dan Miller defeated Matt Horwich via Unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28).
Read More......UFC 90: Silva vs. Cote - 2. Hermes Franca vs. Marcus Aurelio
Lightweight bout: Hermes Franca defeated Marcus Aurelio via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28).
Read More......UFC 90: Silva vs. Cote - 1. Pete Sell vs. Josh Burkman
Welterweight bout: Pete Sell defeated Josh Burkman via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28).
Read More......UFC 90: Silva vs. Cote (Predictions)
Click the stars to rate how good you think it will be. Click here for the official line-up.
UFC 90: Silva vs. Côté is to be held October 25, 2008 at the Allstate Arena in Rosemont, Illinois.
The main event will be UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva facing off against Patrick Côté who is replacing an injured Yushin Okami.
The scheduled bout between Thales Leites and Goran Reljic was scratched from the card due to an injury suffered by Reljic. Drew McFedries has been chosen as Reljic's replacement. Also, the bout between Gray Maynard and Rich Clementi has been moved to the main card.
Yet another injury has struck this card. Diego Sanchez suffered an injury while training and has been forced to pull out. Josh Koscheck has stepped in to fight Thiago Alves. Koscheck was previously scheduled to face Yoshiyuki Yoshida at UFC: Fights for the Troops.
Melvin Guillard was slated to fight Spencer Fisher, but was replaced by Shannon Gugerty. Ricardo Almeida was replaced by Dan Miller due to an injury and also Marcus Aurelio replaces injured Gleison Tibau.UFC 90 Picks and Predictions
UFC 90 Weigh-in Results:
Main card:
Anderson Silva (184) vs. Patrick Cote (183)
Josh Koscheck (170) vs. Thiago Alves (171)
Rich Clementi (156) vs. Gray Maynard (155)
Fabricio Werdum (256) vs. Junior dos Santos (234)
Sean Sherk (156) vs. Tyson Griffin (155)
Preliminary card:
Thales Leites (186) vs. Drew McFedries (186)
Spencer Fisher (155) vs. Shannon Gugerty (156)
Dan Miller (185) vs. Matt Horwich (186)
Hermes Franca (156) vs. Marcus Aurelio (156)
Josh Burkman (171)* vs. Pete Sell (170)
* Josh Burkman, who originally weighed-in at 173 pounds, successfully made weight (171) on his second attempt.
Friday, October 24, 2008
The DOs and DONTs of Starting a Major MMA Promotion
By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)
As yet another organization promised to be “bigger than the UFC” flails about in its death throes, with contracted fighters entering limbo that will cost us quality fights in the prime of their careers and investors weeping over nigh-unbelievable amounts of debt (Calling USGOV Light Heavyweight Champ Ben “Helicopter” Bernake – where’s our MMA bailout?) it’s time to go back over the classic mistakes all upstart promotions up until this point have made, and maybe even recommend a few of the things that some of managed to do right.
DO NOT plan on being profitable from your first major show. This is really the “do not get into a land war in asia” of MMA promotional blunders. Kick-starting a top-level MMA promotion from nothing to profits, success, and a mainstream audience in one heavily-advertised show is the equivalent of jumping out of a car at 100 miles an hour and trying to start running really fast when you hit the ground. It’s a ludicrous concept, yet we continually see promotions (YAMMA, the rebooted WFA, K-1 MMA in the US, ShootBox, etc. ad nauseum) make all future plans contingent on roaring success right off the bat. EliteXC basically did the same thing, although they had deep-pocketed lenders in place to continually finance their failure. The UFC’s success doesn’t just come from spending money on fighters and advertising. They have a very strong brand and could put on a card full of nobodies and still get a lot of casual fans buying in simply to “see this weekend’s UFC”. That doesn’t happen overnight. It takes a long time for it to sink in to the public consciousness. This doesn’t mean you cannot possibly take on the UFC, it just means if you’re going to go at them head-on by trying to run competing shows from the get-go, getting in bidding wars for top talent, etc, you had better have extremely deep pockets and be willing to lose money for a long time. Affliction may actually fit into this category if they are willing to continue promoting MMA at a loss for the foreseeable future, simply to promote their clothing and keep its hardcore image strong.
DO plan on very modest revenues in the beginning. If you’re running a cost-effective regional show, like Palace Fighting Championships or Strikeforce, then you can be profitable very quickly, since even modest revenues from a sellout crowd will outpace tightly controlled expenses.
DO NOT hire live music or otherwise waste money on non-MMA related production. People like pyrotechnics, promotional videos, and quality stage furnishings. They help showcase the fights and lend an air of excitement and theater, they can look good on TV and increase excitement for your next event. Megadeth mumbling through a couple songs or even worse, some horrible DJ and a troupe of go-go dancers do nothing to sell tickets or excite people for the show, and they are a gigantic money pit. Megadeth doesn’t perform for free, and it really just comes off as nothing more than an ostentatious burning of money, reminiscent of a super-sweet-sixteen from MTV.
DO hire professionals that have produced an MMA show before. It’s amazing that, even with all the money spent on the various accoutrement of success and the expertise available to them through their relationship with CBS, EliteXC’s debut on television was marred by production difficulties, delays, overruns, and general unprofessionalism. This is yet another reason not to expect a roaring success from your debut show—I have yet to see one that doesn’t have all kinds of growing pains and production snafus. As a corollary, don’t involve Stephen Quadros or Mauro Ranallo. They only have sentimental value to hardcore fans, who will be watching your show anyway, because they’re hardcores, and other than that Stephen and Mauro are just sub-par announcers.
DO NOT hire famous fighters to do anything except fight. Bas commenting, Frank Shamrock explaining there are actually rules to the sport like it’s still 2000, for a promotion on mainstream broadcast TV in the year 2008, the IFL coaches (oh there you are again Bas and Frank). First of all, many of them are lazy and do a terrible job (I still love you though, Bas). Frank Shamrock is terrified of cameras. 
Nobody tunes in to see these guys not fight, and because they are professional fighters, they won’t get out of bed in the morning without a big check in their hand. Fighters like Bas Rutten and Frank Shamrock have made a cottage industry out of milking upstart promotions for money in exchange for a supposed whiff of legitimacy. I can’t fault Frank or Bas for it, the guys deserve to be paid for pioneering the sport, but its bad business for a promoter. Not only is it a useless money sink, but it doesn’t look good when your commentator can probably beat your headliners. This rule does not apply in any way to Don Frye. He looks great on camera, does commentary anyone can enjoy, and mans the whole event up like bear-trap aftershave.
DO hire fighters that are famous in the region you intend to put the shows on. Even if it’s just a bunch of jobbers from a local gym, every one of those guys has friends, family, and connections to the community. This can help fill out your Arena and get you lots of ticket sales. Hawaiian promoters like Icon are especially good at this, probably having lucked into it just trying to save on airfare and accommodation. This requires on-the-ground knowledge of the area you’re promoting in, so it would definitely be worthwhile to bring in a local promoter as a consultant. This is the reason the Frank Shamrock vs. Cesar Gracie travesty was a commercial success.
DO NOT throw away money for free TV exposure. For those of you that thought that EliteXC had to be profitable because they were on tv (you must not have read my previous article), they were basically paying CBS to put them on tv. EliteXC lost money on every show, spending millions of dollars on fighter purses, promotion, event rental, etc, yet CBS took basically all the revenue from advertising. EliteXC gave CBS a valuable product in exchange for exposure they were planning on monetizing somewhere down the line. Now, they sure got a lot of exposure and attention, but they never got around to monetizing it. The UFC could be on free TV tomorrow if Dana White called up a broadcaster and offered to lose tons of money in exchange for publicity (when Dana does this, it’s called Ultimate Fight Night). However, the UFC is raking in money hand over fist on their pay-per-view products, and if they enter the free TV market, it will be on their own terms.
DO act like a clown in the MMA media for free exposure. Dana white’s video blogs going on anti-PC rants against ProElite, The Shaw family’s ridiculous antics and claims, the feud with KJ Noons. The mainstream media is above reporting on this, but forums and the MMA press eat it up. This means that you can still present a legitimate, businesslike face to the world at large while garnering interest and keeping your name on the lips of the hardcore fans that follow the sport on the internet. $kala may be a buffoon and a clown, but you better believe he’ll make news if he decides to do an interview anywhere, especially if he says something idiotic and controversial. Because really, who cares if people you don’t know think you’re an idiot, so long as they buy tickets to your show.
DO NOT introduce some gimmick intended to be the next evolution of the sport. I’m looking at you YAMMA and IFL. Nobody cares—they want to see fights. The only gimmick that currently works is less rules, and that only works in RioHeroes in Brazil and limits your mainstream appeal in the US. What people expect from MMA is well-ingrained at this point, and any change in that reeks of gimmickry because that’s all it is. A successful female-focused MMA promotion could change this, and would be effective, since everyone likes cute girls, the whole 'foxy boxing' aspect has mass appeal, not to mention the fact that some girls can really throw down and produce entertaining, high-quality fights. Gina Carano in various states of undress is a 'gimmick' that will work with a certain audience until the end of time, but I really don’t think there’s any room for any other revolution in the sport.
DO match up your fights so that you benefit regardless of the outcome. If you’re going to arrange your fights such that you require your star to win and have no narrative in place should he be defeated by the challenger, you could save tons of effort of putting on your own fights and just throw your money away gambling on someone else’s. This is something that the UFC does extremely well. Not only do they have a such a deep talent pool and a brand so strong that they are far bigger than any one fighter (as we’ve seen with Arlovski, Couture, and Sylvia) but they control the narrative, such that when Chuck or GSP are upset by Rashad or Serra, while some loss is unavoidable, much of what the star loses is gained by the challenger, because that challenger has been developed and presented as a legitimate challenge. The only time in recent memory that the UFC has violated this rule was Royce Gracie vs. Matt Hughes, although I’m sure that was a calculated risk, and a bridge that Zuffa cleared with ease.
DO NOT spend money selling or developing non-MMA products. The IFL had Jerseys and trading cards for teams nobody had any emotional connection to and fighters nobody had heard of. I think they sold a couple dozen of each. The biggest failure of business dilution may be EliteXC’s social networking site. What Social Networking Site you say? Exactly my point. I was as shocked as you are, when going over their financial statements, to notice that ProElite spent millions of dollars developing and promoting a social networking website that was supposed to be facebook or myspace for MMA. Why did they do this when they could barely afford to put on shows? Must have been the same reason they bought tons of small promotions when they didn’t know how to run a big one; they love losing money for no reason.
Following these simple rules is no guarantee of success, although I will say that breaking any of them will certainly push any promotion towards failure. Even if a promotion should follow them and still fail, at least new and interesting mistakes will be made instead of the same predictably unsuccessful pattern that results from not learning from the mistakes of the past.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
UFC 90 Picks and Predictions
By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)
The biggest fights on this card are a tale of two replacements. First you have Cote, replacing a much more deserving (and interesting) Yushin Okami after Okami suffered a hand injury in July, and the recently streaking Cote stepped up as the sacrificial lamb.
The second replacement was a surprisingly late one for the level of talent involved. With Diego Sanchez injured, killing what was previously the most exciting fight on the card, Josh Koscheck has shown some serious cojones in stepping up against welterweight wrecking machine Thiago Alves, on very short notice. Koscheck says he was already in training for a fight in December, and will be ready to go, but I question the wisdom of fighting someone the caliber of Thiago Alves on short notice.
From top to bottom this card is full of champs, contenders, and hot prospects, which is pretty exciting. It even has some good betting odds, so maybe I can repair my currently tattered prediction record and public wagering history.
Middleweight champ Anderson Silva (-630) vs. Patrick Cote (+480)
Sadly this is a very uninteresting main event. Cote only recently developed any kind of ground game, can't wrestle very well, and only recently sharpened up his standup to be technical in the slightest. Cote brings a decent muay thai game, good power, and a phenomenally tough chin into the octagon. That's all he has to work with against the champ. Unfortunately that chin is most likely just going to prolong his punishment.
Anderson Silva. We know him, we love him. He is head and shoulders above everyone that steps into the ring with him, to the point where he can play around with, dance, and generally clown upon the former king of the division. On the feet he's too talented, too fast, too powerful, and too accurate. He can't wrestle that well, but Cote doesn't benefit from taking the fight to the ground, as Silva can probably submit him.
Long story short, this fight will only be notable if Cote scores the upset. While anytime you have professional athletes in the ring throwing blows, someone could get knocked out, I think the most likely upset scenario is if Cote somehow causes an injury to one of Silva's bum knees. Anderson Silva by KO round 1.
At -630, the odds are very long against Silva. However, those odds are fair should Anderson win only about 86% of the time. Since I don't think Cote wins this fight more than 1 time in 10, I have made a multi-unit play on this line, as well as making it a basis for several Parlays I have put together. I'm especially confident in this pick because there's very little variability in the style matchup. Cote is simply not a multidimensional fighter, so you don't have to worry about unexpected events in any respect except for the striking.
Thiago Alves (+135) vs. Josh Koscheck (-160) 
This is a much more exciting fight. Alves is coming off his career-making knockout of former welterweight khan Matt Hughes, and Koscheck is trying to re-ignite his promise after a humiliating out-pointing at the hands of current kingpin Georges St. Pierre.
Against Alves, Hughes basically sleepwalked through the fight until Thiago put him to bed for good. He couldn't get comfortable on his feet, was desperate for the takedown, and basically got thrown off far too often. When he did get the takedown, he struggled to advance position and had difficulty keeping Alves from getting back up. While Kos will similarly be hurt by being unable to setup his takedowns with strikes, I expect him to find takedowns with more success than Hughes did, since he's faster, more athletic, and a better wrestler too. Kos has a much different top game than Hughes, so Alves may have a bit more trouble. He simply looks to do damage and beat his opponent up, as his teammate Jon Fitch did so well to Alves back at Ultimate Fight Night 5. However, Kos is not Fitch. His takedowns are much faster and sharper, but his grappling is much more rudimentary and his grind isn't as fierce. Kos bloodied up Chris Lytle, but Lytle did very little to protect himself. Even if Alves ends up underneath Kos, the struggle to hold him there while still defending submissions will keep Josh from dishing out too much damage.
On the feet, Josh has improved his striking a lot, but that might work to his disadvantage. He has improved and his athleticism helps him a ton, but he still strikes like he's hitting a heavy bag and falls over every time he throws a headkick. He isn't creative or flowing; he's very formulaic and predictable. That is very bad news against someone who can counterstrike as powerfully as Alves. Against their shared opponent, Chris Lytle, Josh struggled whenever they exchanged, while Alves was able to start picking him apart within the first few exchanges, countering Lytle's initial combination the third time he threw it, landing a big shot and opening a bigger cut. Furthermore, when Kos got tagged hard against Hazelett and Lytle, his instinctive reaction in both cases was to throw wild punches in return, either to hurt his opponent in return or force them to back off. Against Alves that kind of flailing will just result in a finish.
While Alves' leg kicks could both be great for taking away Kos' speed and power in his takedowns and hand over legs for easy takedowns, I don't expect to see them used early and often in the fight. Against both Karo and Hughes the normally extremely aggressive Alves was much more passive and threw very few leg kicks. Of course, he ended up knocking them both out. I think Alves will make Koscheck desperate on the feet, avoid or stand up out of the takedowns Kos manages, and eventually catch him with something permanent. It certainly wouldn't be the first time Alves caught someone with a knee on the way in. The man is nasty. He has tremendous power in his punches, leg kicks, and of course knees, and he times them very well, exploding into any window of opportunity. Alves by KO round 2.
Since I predict Alves to win outright, at underdog odds of +135, I'm wild about him. Kos can't be counted out, due to his athleticism, but he doesn't have a good way to finish this fight, and Thiago has several that are a danger from bell to bell. This is a play for a unit and several parlays for me.
Fabricio Werdum (-850) vs. Junior dos Santos (+600)
Cigano isn't a total can and has real skills, but this fight is basically a placeholder until Werdum can get his title shot. Cigano is nobody in the division, and hasn't shown anything that would make one think he could beat Werdum. Oddsmakers don't want you to have anything to do with this fight, and you shouldn't. The only bright spot is that maybe Werdum will be able to flex his standup game, and we can see if he's progressed beyond throwing slap haymakers. Werdum by TKO round 1.
Tyson Griffin (+210) vs. Sean Sherk (-260)
The most interesting aspect of this matchup will be whether Tyson Griffin can force another highlight-filled fight and win fight of the night yet again, or if Sherk's style will prevail and we'll see another compelling, although not electrifying, demonstration of wrestling, ground control and guard passing. Tyson better hope this is fight of the night, because he's not going to get any win bonuses.
Tyson is a wrestling-based all-rounder. He can strike a bit, although that's probably the weakest part of his game. He has good wrestling, strong submission defense, and great physical power for the division. Sean Sherk is a shark. He's hyper-evolved to execute one game extremely effectively. He is an absolute rock of muscle, and has some of the most dominant wrestling, if not the most dominant, at 155lbs. He matches that with superb control and positioning, extreme cardio, and a wealth of fight experience. He's also never, in his career, finished a single fighter that was tough OR good on the ground (aside from a very young and inexperienced Karo Parisyan). Tyson is also not much of a finisher, lacking the kind of firepower in any aspect of the game to put away top fighters.
I think Sherk can outwrestle Tyson at least as well as Frankie Edgar did, and maintain stronger control. If Tyson can get his stumpy little legs under him, he may be able to power to his feet and initiate a scramble, where he excels. Should Tyson get to his feet, he will find himself being outboxed by Sherk's tiny T-rex arms. Sherk has very good boxing, although he really lacks the ability to hurt his opponents with his hands. Tyson simply won't be able to put together the strikes to outpoint Sherk or hurt him. Sean Sherk By Decision.
I think that -260 is about a fair line for Sherk here, since Tyson does have the physical power to explode into an opportunity if he should see one, but if Sherk starts drifting back towards the -200 he opened at on some books, I would recommend a play on him there.
Rich Clementi (+200) vs. Gray Maynard (-240)
An interesting clash of the old and the new, as well as styles. Rich Clementi is a former journeyman fighter that has reinvented himself and made a career resurgence by cleaning out the dregs of the UFC Prelim pool. Gray is undefeated, but has less than a sixth of the number of fights Clementi has. Nevertheless, his last victory is the most impressive either fighter has, with the dominant wrestling-based decision over highly-touted wrestler Frankie Edgar. While beating Edgar is impressive, I think it's important to remember that Edgar was basically hand-tailored to lose to Maynard's style, being massively outsized and offering nothing more than wrestling, where Maynard could meet him head-on and dominate him.
Stylistically, this is a much more interesting matchup, as Clementi is a moderate threat on the feet as well as with submissions, but cannot compete with respect to wrestling. This fight will take place in the location, and at the pace Maynard decides. Considering how badly he gassed at times on the Ultimate Fighter, Maynard may seek a slow pace, although he seemed to cruise straight through the fight with Edgar.
Clementi has won wrestling and control-based decisions in his last two fights, so he may be running into a wall here, but given his skills in Gray's weaker areas, Gray's inexperience, and Gray's past gas problems, I would say Clementi represents a very live dog in this fight. Maynard is most likely going to be able to control him for three rounds, but it's going to be a competitive fight, and Rich simply has more ways to finish the fight than Gray. Gray Maynard by Decision.
At the underdog odds of +200 or more, I like a play on Clementi here. He simply has a lot going in his favor if he can find a way around the elephant of Gray's strength and wrestling.
Thales Leites (-445) vs. Drew McFedries (+365)
We know what Drew McFedries brings to the table. He's a striker with an aggressive, power-hitting style, that is one of the hardest hitters at 185. He isn't a particularly good wrestler, and his submission defense is very porous. Leites is a phenomenal jiu-jitsu guy that gets by on the feet by being very tough and a hard hitter.
Leites has gassed out late in his fights, but still been able to perform. Drew hasn't been outside of the first round, win or lose, in his UFC career, and I don't see why this fight will be any different.
Leites fans should be excited for another arm-triangle victory for Thales, but they should be concerned with the fact that Leites' primary defense on the feet is his chin. While a chin may beat a slugger in boxing, in MMA it's never good to test your beard against big hitters. While McFedries does have that 'punchers chance' with his scary power, Leites is rightly the overwhelming favorite in this fight because he has a very solid and dangerous top game and is generally a much higher-quality fighter. Thales Leites by Submission Round 1.
It's attractive to look and see someone who can win a fight at any point with a knockout at +350, but really McFedries needs much longer odds to be worth a play, since he's so badly outgunned.
Spencer Fisher (-345) vs. Shannon Gugerty (+275)
Shannon Gugerty is a grappler with a great submissions rate, but a record full of the quality of fighters you'd expect from an up-and-comer, consisting mostly of inexperienced guys and club fighters. He's on a streak now, but he's lost to the only two fighters he's fought with double-digit numbers of fights. Spencer Fisher is much more of a known commodity, a versatile and aggressive striker with some decent submissions and terrible takedown defense.
This should be a pretty exciting fight, and I would recommend no betting on it, so just get some popcorn and enjoy! Spencer Fisher by TKO round 2.
Matt Horwich (+275) vs. Dan Miller (-325)
This battle of IFL veterans is a showcase fight, as well as a entrance test, for grappling prospect Dan Miller. Like his brother Jim last weekend, faces a journeyman grappler that he should be able to outgrapple. If Jim can put Horwich away early, then maybe he'll be ready to fight some of the mainstays of the UFC Prelims, like Alessio Sakara. Otherwise, he'll need to be nurtured and developed for a bit longer, as he's still a developing talent. Dan Miller by submission round 2.
Marcus Aurelio (+160) vs. Hermes Franca (-180)
Perhaps the most compelling of the undercard matchups here, this fight will rehabilitate one of these former contenders. Both guys are probably just glad they aren't facing a top position grappler. Franca has strung together a couple of losses by fighting wrestlers that could take him down and avoid his tactic of "pretending to be asleep for a round and a half and then exploding into a single armbar attempt before gassing terribly and giving up on the fight" and Aurelio has lost 3 out of his last six fights to wrestlers that could work away in his guard.
Aurelio is the better pure jiu-jitsu player in this fight, and could most likely work an aggressive game and win the fight if he could regularly score dominant position. Franca is a good enough grappler to be relatively safe in Aurelio's guard, although I don't expect him to get much going there. The big difference in this fight will be striking. Aurelio was outstruck by Clay Guida, which doesn't speak highly of his skills as a boxer. Furthermore, he seemed content to let that fight drift away from him on the feet. Franca isn't a sharp and technical striker, but he does have chops, and he certainly has power in his winging haymakers and his knees, and should be able to easily outscore Aurelio's lukewarm standup skills. Aurelio is a very tough guy, so unless he takes a shot right on the button, it will be very difficult to hurt him.
Both of these guys have a tendency to gas. With Franca it's always a question of how seriously did he train, and Aurelio does horrible things to his body in order to cut weight, which hurts him later in fights. So this fight may be decided by 'who gasses first' although I see this as a wash between the two.
Both of these fighters receive top-dollar pay but are developing mid-card records due to being given tough fights. I'm sure Dana will be glad to be able to renegotiate with the loser. I think Franca will just be too much on the feet for Aurelio, making him expend energy and take risks to get takedowns, where the fight will stall out and nobody will score significantly, making the standup action the deciding factor in the fight. Hermes Franca by decision.
I think that at -180 and better Hermes is a solid bet, as Aurelio's ability to submit from his back is usually over-valued.
Josh Burkman (-220) vs. Pete Sell (+180)
Josh Burkman is a very physically gifted guy that has just never been able to put it all together in MMA. Pete Sell is a tough, strong guy that is supposed to be a submission expert, fights like a slugger, and hasn't submitted anyone since Phil Baroni.
Burkman has lost to submission several times, so at first glance you might expect him to do so again, but if you look at the people who have submitted him, you can see they're pretty high-level guys. Burkman is tough to finish in any way, having a very good chin on top of solid wrestling, great physical power, and submission defense that can use those gifts. On the feet he tends to throw nothing but big power shots, gassing himself out quickly, but Sell has gone down to those kinds of shots throughout his career, and I don't expect the dehydration of cutting to 170 for the first time will do him any favors in that respect. Josh Burkman by TKO round 2.
From a betting perspective, there's slight value in Burkman if his lines drop back to -200 or better. Not enough for a straight bet, but I've included him in a few of my small parlays.
My Straight Plays:
3u on Anderson Silva at -600 to win .5u
1u on Rich Clementi at +225 to win 2.25u
1u on Thiago Alves at +130 to win 1.3u
My Parlays:
.25u on Clementi and Franca to win .88u
.25u on Alves, Silva, and Clementi to win 1.78u
.25u on Alves, Silva and Franca to win .77u
.33u on Alves, Burkman, and Silva to win .98u
.08u on Alves, Silva, Clementi, and Franca to win .93u
Anderson Silva here also represents the first leg of a variety of Parlays involving different combinations of Quinton Jackson, Rodrigo Nogueira, Joe Stevenson, Forrest Griffin, and Rich Franklin winning their respective fights.
General Public Prediction Record
Public Bet History
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Does Werdum Deserve a Shot Yet?
By Garth Hansen (garthhansen@mmaratings.net)
Fabricio Werdum has appeared to be the odd man out in the UFC's latest heavyweight shakedown. The four-man psuedo-tournament soon to open included the richly (rich being the key word) undeserving Brock Lesnar, and Frank Mir, the coach opposite Interim Champion Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. The other dude in the mix is Randy Couture, who the UFC never disavowed as champ. So Werdum is pissed, because he's out of the mix. Should he be?
The last fight I saw Werdum in was his TKO win over Brandon Vera. He also holds a TKO win over Gabriel Gonzaga in the UFC, and a loss to Andrei Arlovski. Does this resume qualify him for a title shot? In his two wins he's looked good. Despite Vera's complaints, I felt it was a justified stoppage, if not a good one. The win over Gonzaga was dominant. Both wins are over guys who seem to have been mainly hype...two guys who came in with a splash, destroying a few opponents, then tapering off or dropping out altogether.
Werdum says: “I didn’t like that they put Brock Lesnar against Randy Couture...I think that it would be fair to put ‘Minotauro’ Nogueira against Couture -- it had to be a fight between these two. Despite having been champion once, I’ve not found it fair that Frank Mir is fighting for the belt. I had two great victories where I was very superior to my opponents, Gabriel Gonzaga and Brandon Vera. I’ve won by myself - not the judges."
Fair enough. Mir's inclusion can be chalked up to circumstances...he was supposed to lose to Brock Lesnar and set up some big-money pro-wrestling star PPV with Lesnar's newfound legitimacy. A timely spine-shot and kneebar nixed that idea. Lesnar's inclusion, as noted repeatedly, is money. People like the musclebound freak, or like to hate on him.
I don't think Werdum's run in the UFC is so spectacular as to make him the set-in-stone #1 contender, by any means. People seem to forget how easily he got handled by Andrei Arlovski. Andrei pretty much toyed with him, and spent the whole fight looking for opportunities knock out the big Brazillian. So, two wins over what appear to be also-rans in the UFC heavyweight division, and one loss to a top five heavyweight. Good, but not great.
Brock Lesnar brings in money. Frank Mir screwed up their plans by winning, in excellent BJJ fashion, Big Nog holds a belt, and Randy holds a belt. Werdum is indeed odd man out, but I don't think he even makes a strong case to be upset about that.
While his current record puts him in the waiting room for the contender's area, his next fight is a bit of a slap in the face. One would think they'd put Werdum up against a seasoned heavyweight, or another contender with some Octagon experience, but instead he faces off with Junior “Cigano” dos Santos, a rookie UFC fighter. While dos Santos may or may not end up being a great fighter, he's unknown to the US public, unlikely to garner much attention short of a spectacular KO, and a step sideways, at best, for Werdum everywhere outside of Brazil.
With the death of EliteXC, there's a chance for some more accomplished heavyweights who wish to fight in the U.S. to end up on UFC cards, and some intriguing matchups will present themselves. Werdum seems to have been assigned gatekeeper status, a moniker hated by contenders and adored by jobbers. His frustration is justifiable only at being handed a fight that does nothing positive for his career, barring of course something spectacular happening. As far as conclusion in the tournament? Wait in line, and win your fights.
Monday, October 20, 2008
Post UFC 89 Notes
By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)
UFC 89 mostly turned out the way I expected, although it did feature several fighters (Hardy, Taylor, Miller, Cane) firmly establishing themselves as fighters to watch in the future. Aside from only featuring divisionally important matchups in two fights (the LHW attractions), the only complaint I would have about UFC 89 was that it featured next to no groundwork. I expected this going in, because of the matchmaking, but I’m only now wondering if the matches were made with that in mind, as a sop to the banger-friendly UK market. It’s possible Zuffa dumbed down their product to appeal to the casual brawl fans, but it’s also possible that’s simply what happens when you use that many UK-based fighters on a card.
Michael Bisping defeats Chris Leben by Decision (Unanimous) 30-27, 30-27, 29-28
Both fighters looked excellent here, each playing the same game they’ve always played, but looking sharper and more skilled at it. The biggest failure for Leben was having absolutely no gameplan. He fought the exact same way he always has, Bisping has been saying for weeks how to beat that, and then came into the fight and did exactly what he said for three rounds. The fact that Leben couldn’t anticipate Bisping’s plan and work out a way around it, or try something new in the third after getting jabbed to death for two rounds really illustrates Leben’s ceiling as a fighter, although he was dangerous from bell to bell.
The biggest question for me is, “Why did Leben stop throwing those leg kicks?” Early in the fight, he was landing them well and often, because Bisping had to stand just outside of punching range to land his counters when Leben moved in, which opened up those kicks. Furthermore, accumulating damage to the legs would not only knock Bisping out of his strategy and hurt him, it would also slow him down and make it harder for him to get out of the way of Leben’s punches. Since Bisping was barely slipping some of those haymakers, a few inches taken off each step due to a beat up leg could have made a huge difference.
One final note is that both fighters showed impressive stamina. While Leben got his nose busted early in the fight and did slow down in the third, he still had energy and was moving and punching well. Bisping looked fabulous, staying crisp and in good form throughout, which is crucial since any momentary lapse in his defensive movement or guard could have turned the tide of the fight. Leben did get frustrated/tired and lose his form, punching wildly, but that’s not really so much of a stretch from the way he goes about business when fresh.
Moving forward, I expect Leben to continue to be a gatekeeper, as well as occasionally bashing someone that’s better than him but chinny. Unless he suddenly develops much classier striking or really flexing his decent groundgame, he’s going nowhere from where he stands today.
Bisping at this point is simply not ready to deal with the elite of the middleweight division. He can beat up the guys that aren’t strikers, but if standing up with Leben is touch-and-go, then a more talented brawler like Dan Henderson will send him home in a box. Bisping simply lacks the firepower to stand with the best strikers in the division, and while his submission defense seems strong, his wrestling is so-so and he’s not that strong, so monsters like