By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)
After this event my General Public Prediction Record remains at an undistinguished 26W-16L-1NC, mostly due to the unpredictable win of "King Mo" and the unfortunate fluke injury to Cyborg.
I went 1-2 on my wagers, lowering my Public Bet History to a career loss of 2.9 units. Again, Cyborg not eating his Wheaties cost me, as in the few seconds the fight had to develop, it looked like I had called it properly. Losing money on Yuki Kondo's loss was just a result of the wrong call. Whenever one bets, one has to make some assumptions, and I made the wrong ones in this case. I knew that Kondo was a faded version of his former self, but the fight that developed showed Kondo really has very little left in the way of passion. It looked like a sparring match.
When you bet that a declining fighter still has enough "in the tank" to beat inferior competition (more on that when I cover Kimbo vs. Shamrock), you take a risk, and that risk didn't pan out for me this time. However, over a large number of fights, I still believe I made the correct play. In fact, had Cyborg not broken his arm, and gone on to win the fight (as I still think he would, especially given his poor training and health) I would have been positive for the event, and moving into the black.
A couple of fighters really impressed me in this event.
Muhammad "King Mo" Lawal looked like a natural fighter, striking well if not technically. He showed good aggression and instincts. If he continues to be 'developed' instead of just taking on a Jimmy Ambriz role of losing fights and picking up paychecks, he could be a quality fighter at 205 lbs.
If we saw all Xande has to offer, his MMA career is going to be nasty, brutish, and short. Not to put undue pressure on the finish, but not being able to work his ground game against such feeble opposition and then gassing out is what the BJJ phenom is going to bring to MMA... I'll pass, thanks.
Santiago and Masvidal were the most impressive and most well-rounded fighters of the night. Both also train at the near-mythical American Top Team. Coincidence? I think not.
Kazuhiro Nakamura seems poised to continue his bento-box mediocrity at a new weight class. A surprising fate for a rare creature - a talented Japanese fighter in the heavier weight classes.
If Sengoku events continue to fizzle as badly as this one did, I don't expect to be writing about the promotion much longer. Speaking of endangered promotions, EliteXC is just around the corner, so get ready.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Post Sengoku 5 Notes
What does the future hold for Anderson Silva?
By Garth Hansen (garthhansen@mmaratings.net)
With the UFC's middleweight division being torn to shreds by the skill and power of Anderson "The Spider" Silva, and the worldwide challengers in the weight class seeming to offer little challenge, I decided to explore in this article possible tests that may face Silva in the next couple years. The outcomes are entirely my own predictions and do not reflect the opinion of MMA Ratings or anyone else with a properly functioning brain in any way.
A big ol' pack of dogs
This is an intriguing matchup. Silva has dynamic striking and is extremely light on his feet. A big ol' pack of dogs has the advantage of being composed of many individual dogs, all with their own snapping teeth, which will neutralize Silva's ground game. In the end, however, I see Silva utilizing his superior footwork to pick the pack of dogs apart, finishing the final scrappy rat terrier via rear naked choke in the fourth round.
COBRA
While at first glance this may seem like a lopsided fight, with Silva facing the entire COBRA organization, once you delve a bit deeper you'll see that COBRA actually has a chance. While they've proven again and again that they cannot hit a damn thing with their...laser M16's...COBRA does have a technological edge against a lone man dressed in nothing but very tight pants. COBRA would have an opportunity to win if they were able to get their tanks and helicopters into the arena, and accidentally crash on top of Silva. However, in the end though I see COBRA making a series of mental errors, losing control of their satellite that will blot out the sun or some stupid crap, and the fight ending with Silva brutally kneeing COBRA Commander's mirror face shield at the beginning of the second.
Dr. Daniel Dennett
Noted philosopher Daniel Dennett, author of "Breaking the Spell" the originator of the term "bright" as an alternative to "atheist". I have to say this is probably the biggest mismatch of the potential matchups being discussed here. Many would postulate that anyone would be a better opponent than a kindly old man, even a baby or duckling. Dennett has a long shot chance if he's able to engage his opponent in close with dirty philosophizing, staying in the pocket with a strong epistemological clinch. Sadly the good doctor is far more likely to go down to having his head kicked clean off his body into the fifteenth row. A sad end to a distinguished career, but an interesting memento for a lucky fan.
Lindsay Lohan's Sideboob
No real argument here. Silva would obviously attempt to combat the delectable sideboob, until eventually simply sitting down and gazing at it lovingly, holding his head in his hands tilted at a playful angle. When he failed to stand at the referee's command the fight would be stopped in the first. TKO win for Lohan Sideboob.
John McCain's Jowls in a wrestling singlet
Easily the most horrifying of potential challengers to Silva's UFC belt, McCain's Jowls would offer the particular challenge of a deceptive, elusive style, which would be further obfuscated by a pre-fight bluster and constant drone of empty 
promises. This will serve to distract and confuse Silva. However, McCain has what I believe is a fatal flaw in that he must drag a clueless, unhelpful, blathering partner behind him at all times...Sarah Palin will serve to pin him in place, opening McCain's Jowls up to pinpoint punches and kicks from the heavy-handed Spider. I predict McCain's Jowls will eventually resort to a series of low blows. These will not affect the outcome, just Jowls' reputation, which will be sullied forever and embarrass his fans. Silva by KO (Jowlkick).
Sunday, September 28, 2008
Sengoku - Fifth Battle
Sengoku 5 is a mixed martial arts event promoted by World Victory Road. The event took place on September 28, 2008 at the Yoyogi National Gymnasium in Tokyo, Japan. It featured the first World Victory Road middleweight grand prix tournament.
Post Sengoku 5 Notes
Sengoku 5 Quick Hits
| Match | Winner | Loser | Method | Round | Time |
| 1 | Jorge Masvidal | Ryan Schultz | TKO (Punches) | 1 | 1:57 |
| 2 | Kiuma Kunioku | A Sol Kwon | Decision (Unanimous) | 3 | 5:00 |
| 3 | Siyar Bahadurzada | Evangelista Santos | TKO (Injury) | 1 | 0:22 |
| 4 | Jorge Santiago | Logan Clark | Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) | 2 | 3:55 |
| 5 | Kazuhiro Nakamura | Paul Cahoon | Decision (Unanimous) | 3 | 5:00 |
| 6 | Yuki Sasaki | Yuki Kondo | Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) | 2 | 1:08 |
| 7 | Muhammed Lawal | Travis Wiuff | TKO (Punches) | 1 | 2:11 |
| 8 | Alexandre Ribeiro | Takashi Sugiura | TKO (Knees and Punches) | 3 | 4:18 |
Sengoku - Fifth Battle - 8. Alexandre Ribeiro vs. Takashi Sugiura
Light Heavyweight bout: Alexandre "Xande" Ribeiro defeated Takashi Sugiura via TKO (Knees and Punches) at 4:18 of round 3.
Read More......Sengoku - Fifth Battle - 7. Muhammad Lawal vs. Travis Wiuff
Heavyweight bout: Muhammad "King Mo" Lawal defeated Travis Wiuff via TKO (Punches)at 2:11 of round 1.
Read More......Sengoku - Fifth Battle - 6. Yuki Sasaki vs. Yuki Kondo
Middleweight Grand Prix bout: Yuki Sasaki defeated Yuki Kondo via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) at 1:08 of round 2.
Read More......Sengoku - Fifth Battle - 5. Kazuhiro Nakamura vs. Paul Cahoon
Middleweight Grand Prix bout: Kazuhiro Nakamura defeated Paul Cahoon via Decision (Unanimous).
Read More......Sengoku - Fifth Battle - 4. Jorge Santiago vs. Logan Clark
Middleweight Grand Prix bout: Jorge Santiago defeated Logan Clark via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) at 3:55 of round 2.
Read More......Sengoku - Fifth Battle - 3. Siyar Bahadurzada vs. Evangelista Santos
Middleweight Grand Prix bout: Siyar Bahadurzada defeated Evangelista “Cyborg” Santos via TKO (Injury) of 0:22 of round 1.
Read More......Sengoku - Fifth Battle - 2. Kiuma Kunioku vs. A Sol Kwon
Lightweight bout: Kiuma Kunioku defeated A Sol Kwon via Decision (Unanimous).
Read More......Sengoku - Fifth Battle - 1. Jorge Masvidal vs. Ryan Schultz
Lightweight GP reserve bout: Jorge Masvidal defeated Ryan Schultz via TKO (Punches) at 1:57 of round 1.
Read More......Sengoku - Fifth Battle (Predictions)
Click the stars to rate how good you think it will be.
Sengoku 5 is an upcoming mixed martial arts event promoted by World Victory Road. The event will take place on September 28, 2008 at the Yoyogi National Gymnasium in Tokyo, Japan. It will feature the first World Victory Road middleweight grand prix tournament.Sengoku 5 Quick Hits
Middleweight Grand Prix:
Yuki Kondo (183) vs. Yuki Sasaki (183)
Evangelista “Cyborg” Santos (180) vs. Siyar Bahadurzada (182)
Jorge Santiago (181) vs. Logan Clark (182)
Kazuhiro Nakamura (183) vs. Paul Cahoon (181)
Non-Tournament Bouts:
Jorge Masvidal (154) vs. Ryan Schultz (154)(Lightweight GP reserve bout)
Alexandre "Xande" Ribeiro (204) vs. Takashi Sugiura (204)
Travis Wiuff (247) vs. Muhammed Lawal (221)
Kiuma Kunioku (154) vs. A Sol Kwon (154)
Saturday, September 27, 2008
Sengoku 5 Quick Hits
By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)
World Victory Road is quickly becoming an also-ran promotion in my mind, but still has many elite fighters in various weight classes existing in an unfortunate limbo of fighting prospects or squash matches.
The 185-lb tournament to face Kazuo Misaki is very ho-hum, but it's still a must-watch if you want to keep up with the careers of some talented fighters.
It also offers some attractive betting lines to repair my Public Bet History, now down -1.42 units across four events.
I will not be breaking down all the fights on the card, but most will be added to my General Public Prediction Record currently sporting a 60% prediction rate at 21W-13L-1NC.
Main Event: Xande Ribeiro vs. Takashi Sugiura
It's interesting how often Japanese promotions feature utterly non-competitive fights as main events, although EliteXC is trying to close the gap on that. Ribeiro should submit an old pro-wrestler with little MMA experience early. The only danger is if Xande's chin turns out to be a better fit for BJJ than MMA, since old pro-wrestlers are usually at least a little bit tough and brawly. Expecting anything other than a quick and pointless first-round submission is foolishness, however. Ribeiro by submission round 1.
Siyar Bahadurzada (-150) vs. Evangelista "Cyborg" Santos (+120)
Cyborg is flawed--he gasses badly, tends to get out of control, is weak on the floor, and gives up if he takes a lot of damage. However, the guy can bang, and trashes opponents if he can find an opening.
Siyar is very stiff on the feet, leaning and throwing wildly. He's not great wrestler, and does not have a lot on the ground. His biggest weakness in this fight will be his movement. He's very flat footed, leans quite a lot, and otherwise leaves himself open to brawling.
I expect Cyborg to be able to pile up the damage until Siyar is simply done. Cyborg by TKO Round 3.
Since Cyborg is a decent underdog at +120, I have placed a unit on him to win. He's incomplete as a fighter, so there is risk, but I think the extra juice of him being an underdog should cover that risk.
Yuki Kondo (-120) vs. Yuki Sasaki (-110)
Yuki Kondo is a has-been, but Yuki Sasaki is a never-was. Sasaki has 21 wins, but none of them are against a fighter even at Kondo's level. Sasaki's only weapon here is going to be his submissions, but it's very difficult to submit Yuki Kondo if you're not ten times his size like a Roger Gracie or Josh Barnett. Kondo can only ever finish an opponent if he lands a clean headkick, so expect a lackluster decision. Yuki Kondo by Decision.
I think Kondo's experience is being undervalued at -120. He's done being a top fighter, if he ever was, but he hasn't lost his skill set and can still beat the likes of Sasaki.
Paul Cahoon (+550) vs. Kazuhiro Nakamura (-750)
Cahoon is your prototypical British brawler with no ground game, and recently lost to Ian Freeman, which really just about says it all. Nakamura is far more well rounded, although he has extreme difficulty finishing fights. He is tough enough to survive on the feet, and has surprisingly good boxing with his stubby little arms. Unless Cahoon gasses badly and Nakamura takes mount and just lands 100 unanswered strikes, this fight is going to be a control decision for Nakamura. At these extreme odds no bet is worthwhile. Nakamura by Decision.
Logan Clark (+280) vs. Jorge Santiago (-350)
Clark's weakness, like many talented fighters that never make it over the hump, is that he simply cannot find a way to finish most of his opponents. His strikes merely bruise most fighters, and his opponents slip out of his submissions. Santiago is technically excellent, but fragile and prone to disintegration. The problem for Clark in this fight is that Santiago is going to be winning most of the time due to technical superiority, so unless Clark can dig deep and find a way to hurt Jorge badly, the decision is going to come against him. I think Clark is going to have to work harder and harder to control and avoid getting submitted, in addition to his takedowns becoming more and more desperate. It will be close, but I think the ATT product will finish him off late in the fight, and given Santiago's well-rounded skills and striking power, a submission is almost as likely as a KO. Jorge Santiago by KO round 3.
There is value on Clark if you think Santiago's chin is bad enough to be hurt by him, but I am avoiding wagering on this fight.
Jorge Masvidal (-190) vs. Ryan Schultz (+155)
Masvidal has a ton of power in his kicks and has the toughness and endurance to go late into fights. Schultz has the unfortunate habit of going deeper into fights than his cardio can tolerate, fading badly, and getting knocked over. Masvidal will have trouble off the bat, but will land something show-stopping late in the fight. Masvidal by KO round 2.
I think -190 isn't enough to account for the advantages Masvidal enjoys in this fight, given how well-rounded he is and Schultz's near-journeyman status. I have a play here.
My plays:
1u on Jorge Masvidal at -190
1u on Yuki Kondo at -120
1u on Cyborg Santos at +120
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Post Dream 6 Notes
By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)
Dream 6 really encapsulated all that makes up Japanese MMA. It featured world-class talent alongside has-beens and amateurs. The best production values in the world surrounded fights that were sometimes pedestrian. There were competitive high-level matches interspersed with embarassing mismatches. Lastly, at times it was downright weird, between spending two hours waiting for Crocop's testicle to re-descend (with the feed helpfully changing to cameras with a view of the Cro-Crotch unobstructed by any referee's towels) and the fight of the night ended in perhaps the most awkward post-victory position possible, with the runner-up taking a nap on top of the champion.
In terms of wagering, someone who followed all my plays lost a fraction of a unit, although if you just went along with my first (and best) picks, you gained almost a unit. My Public Bet History is now down -1.42 units across four events, but I expect it to be up any day now.
Thankfully the event's squash matches has bloated my General Public Prediction Record. to a less-embarassing 60% at 21W-13L-1NC.
Melvin Manhoef vs. Gegard Mousasi
This fight went exactly as expected. Manhoef has reportedly been working very diligently on his ground game with some top competitors, but maybe developing a respectable ground game just isn't in the cards. Mousasi showed good composure and demonstrated that his ground game is as good as we thought. Manhoef really shouldn't be used like this in the future. He's too exciting to waste getting submitted. I would love to see him beat up some old pro wrestlers or similarly hapless opponents, as a curtain jerker.
Betting on Gegard in this fight at -155 was the right choice. I would have made more profit if I had not arbitraged out all my risk, but I chose to be more conservative, which worked against me in this instance.
Zelg Galesic vs. Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza
Here Jacare showed why he has more crossover potential than most BJJ wizards - he has an aggressive and powerful takedown game, and he's simply an incredible athlete. Once the fight was on the ground, it was academic. Jacare can make his BJJ work in MMA, and he has the skills to put the fight on the floor against most opponents. End of story.
I again cost myself some money by arbitraging out all my risk, but given the events of the tournament finals, and the unfavorable odds I had on Jacare in the first place, I think it was the smart choice.
Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza vs. Gegard Mousasi
It's pretty satisfying to call even a four man tournament correctly. I was impressed that Jacare was able to take Gegard down without overmuch fuss, and Gegard did a good job of surviving and coming close to escape. Upkicks are a funny thing. I have expressed questions about Jacare's chin in the past, and I don't think this loss really answers any questions one way or the other. The kick landed very cleanly, after a huge windup from Gegard, right on the button. Yes Jacare was out stone cold, taking a trip to the land of Nod, but it's very difficult to compare the strike he took to many others. Either way, Gegard is one of the most well-rounded fighters in the business, and nobody is safe with him in any position!
Mirko "Crocop" Filopovic vs. Alistair Overeem
Remember when Crocop used to be a good fighter? This was a disappointing fight with a dreadful finish. Overeem looked very good, but he always looks good early in his fights. Crocop really looked dead and defeated even before the groin strikes, but I doubt many fighters would continue with the kind of damage Mirko took to "the bad part of the midsection". Mirko looked lethargic and slow, which is very bad considering he makes his money through his explosive power. While it certainly appeared another Croatian loss was in order, as I said before, Overeem can disintegrate at any moment.
In retrospect, betting on Crocop at -200 was a bad play, but I think I wasn't far off given the available information before the fight.
Shinya Aoki vs. Todd Moore
Shinya Aoki is a pretty good grappler and former policeman. Todd Moore is from Texas. Aoki won this fight.
Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Masanori Tonooka
Tonooka looked like garbage and lost the fight everywhere it took place. Akiyama looked like he'd taken a bet with someone that he could finish the fight with something other than an armbar. Poor gameplanning, possibly simply as a result of overconfidence.
Hayato Sakurai vs. Kuniyoshi Hironaka
Sakurai, even unmotivated, is simply a better fighter than Hironaka, and Hironaka showed he is a better fighter than the Hironaka we saw in the UFC.
Ikuhisa Minowa vs. Masakatsu Funaki
Remember when I talked about Minowa's "insanity"? Well part of that is playing leglock footsie with someone whose only feasible way of beating you is a leglock. If Minowa had just brawled, pounded, gone for lay-and-pray, or simply ran away from Funaki for 5 minutes until his arthritis kicked in and he keeled over, Minowa would have taken this fight easily. Instead, he threw himself into the worst possible position and got his leg jacked up.
Betting on Minowa was probably the worst recommendation I've made since starting this blog. I only lost 1 unit on this play, but it was simply bone-headed. Minowa is a flake and fights dumb. Minowa has questionable defense. And worst of all, Minowa comes from Japanese pro-wrestling and has been involved in some of the most shady fights in mainstream MMA (his wins over Kimo and Butterbean). At -325 I should have run screaming from this bet, and I would have if I'd simply sat and thought about it rather than gotten excited when the line opened. Add that to the lesson list - think things through and decide which fights you would like to bet on at what odds BEFORE the lines open.
Hideo Tokoro vs. Atsushi Yamamoto
Yamamoto has really improved his boxing, and looked sharp out there, even if he still has no power. Tokoro still has problems with his chin and with taking too much punishment.
Sergei Kharitonov vs. Jimmy Ambriz
Remember when Sergei Kharitonov used to be a good fighter? He looked like garbage in this fight, even though he was fighting some kind of cartoon superhero character that had retired and gotten fat. Jimmy Ambriz is just a ridiculous looking person, and this fight was embarrassing. Ambriz has basically nothing to offer in the way of offense or defense from any position. Sergei looked fat, hittable, and slow. Remember when he broke out in Pride, how he was a huge guy, buy lean at around 230 lbs, and moved well for his size? That's all done, apparently. He's still far more well-rounded than most heavyweights, but if he keeps coming in to fights in this kind of physical condition, he's going to have serious problems against anyone that can really hit, because no matter how tough you are, if you keep getting hit, you will lose.
Keita Nakamura vs. Adriano Martins
Nakamura showed some good boxing, but Martins basically looked like a BJJ coach who doesn't care about MMA, but is connected to a well-respected team, and is just out to get a paycheck. Which is what he was.
Yoon Dong Sik vs. Andrews Nakahara
Dong should have won this fight, if he gave up on his fetish for the ezekial choke. Nakahara seems to have developed upon the natural talents he showed in the Sakuraba fight. He still doesn't know how to wrestle or grapple properly, but he has flashes of natural talent and the athletic tools to make what he does know how to do work for him. Maybe if he continues to trail well and get high-quality training, he can make something of himself in MMA. Or maybe he can continue to fight for FEG and get thrown to Akiyama in his next fight followed by Hong Man Choi and lose horribly and then basically be a spent force in MMA, which is far more likely.
Overall a solid event, but one that didn't live up to its potential, mostly due to the sudden finishes to all the tournament bouts and the failure of Crocop/Overeem to even begin to live up to the hype.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Dream 6 - Olympia
DREAM.6: Middle Weight Grandprix 2008 Final Round was held at the Saitama Super Arena, in Saitama, Japan on September 23, 2008. The event hosted the crowning of DREAM's first Middleweight Champion after the conclusion of the Middleweight Grand Prix.Post Dream 6 Notes
Dream 6 Picks and Predictions
| Match | Winner | Loser | Method | Round | Time |
| 1 | Andrews Nakahara | Dong Sik Yoon | TKO (Punches) | 2 | 0:30 |
| 2 | Gegard Mousasi | Melvin Manhoef | Submission (Triangle Choke) | 1 | 1:28 |
| 3 | Ronaldo Souza | Zelg Galesic | Submission (Armbar) | 1 | 1:27 |
| 4 | Keita Nakamura | Adriano Martins | Decision (Split) | 2 | 5:00 |
| 5 | Sergei Kharitonov | Jimmy Ambriz | Submission (Punches) | 1 | 2:15 |
| 6 | Atsushi Yamamoto | Hideo Tokoro | Decision (Unanimous) | 2 | 5:00 |
| 7 | Masakatsu Funaki | Ikuhisa Minowa | Submission (Heel Hook) | 1 | 0:52 |
| 8 | Hayato Sakurai | Kuniyoshi Hironaka | Decision (Unanimous) | 2 | 5:00 |
| 9 | Yoshihiro Akiyama | Masanori Tonooka | Submission (Armbar) | 1 | 6:26 |
| 10 | Shinya Aoki | Todd Moore | Submission (Neck Crank) | 1 | 1:10 |
| 11 | Alistair Overeem | Mirko Filipovic | No Contest (Knee to the Groin) | 1 | |
| 12 | Gegard Mousasi | Ronaldo Souza | KO (Upkick) | 1 | 2:15 |
Dream 6 - Olympia - 12. Gegard Mousasi vs. Ronaldo de Souza
Middleweight GP Championship bout: Gegard Mousasi defeated Ronaldo "Jacare" de Souza via KO (Upkick) at 2:15 of the first round.
Dream 6 - Olympia - 11. Alistair Overeem vs. Mirko Filipovic
Heavyweight bout: Alistair Overeem vs. Mirko "Crocop" Filipovic ended via No Contest (Knee to the Groin) during the first round.
Dream 6 - Olympia - 10. Shinya Aoki vs. Todd Moore
Lightweight Bout: Shinya Aoki defeated Todd Moore via Submission (Neck Crank) at 1:10 of the first round.
Read More......Dream 6 - Olympia - 9. Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Masanori Tonooka
Middleweight Bout: Yoshihiro Akiyama defeated Masanori Tonooka via Submission (Armbar) at 6:26 of the first round.
Read More......Dream 6 - Olympia - 8. Hayato Sakurai vs. Kuniyoshi Hironaka
Welterweight Bout: Hayato "Mach" Sakurai defeated Kuniyoshi Hironaka via Decision (Unanimous).
Read More......Dream 6 - Olympia - 7. Masakatsu Funaki vs. Ikuhisa Minowa
Middleweight Bout: Masakatsu Funaki defeated Ikuhisa "Minowaman" Minowa via Submission (Heel Hook) at 0:52 of the first round.
Read More......Dream 6 - Olympia - 6. Atsushi Yamamoto vs. Hideo Tokoro
Featherweight bout: Atsushi Yamamoto defeated Hideo Tokoro via Decision (Unanimous).
Dream 6 - Olympia - 5. Sergei Kharitonov vs. Jimmy Ambriz
Heavyweight bout: Sergei Kharitonov defeated Jimmy Ambriz via Submission (Punches) at 2:15 of the first round.
Read More......Dream 6 - Olympia - 4. Keita Nakamura vs. Adriano Martins
Lightweight Bout: Keita "Ktaro" Nakamura defeated Adriano Martins via Decision (Split).
Read More......Dream 6 - Olympia - 3. Ronaldo de Souza vs. Zelg Galesic
Middleweight Grand Prix bout: Ronaldo "Jacare" de Souza defeated Zelg Galesic via Submission (Armbar) at 1:27 of the first round.
Read More......Dream 6 - Olympia - 2. Gegard Mousasi vs. Melvin Manhoef
Middleweight Grand Prix bout: Gegard Mousasi defeated Melvin Manhoef via Submission (Triangle Choke) at 1:28 of the first round.
Read More......Dream 6 - Olympia - 1. Andrews Nakahara vs. Yoon Dong-sik
Middleweight Grand Prix reserve bout: Andrews Nakahara defeated Yoon Dong-sik via TKO (Punches) at 0:30 of the second round.
Dream 6 - Olympia (Predictions)
Click the stars to rate how good you think it will be.
DREAM.6: Middle Weight Grandprix 2008 Final Round is to be held at the Saitama Super Arena, in Saitama, Japan on September 23, 2008. The event will host the crowning of DREAM's first Middleweight Champion after the conclusion of the Middleweight Grand Prix.Dream 6 Picks and Predictions
Andrews Nakahara (183.7) vs. Yoon Dong Sik (184.8)
Melvin Manhoef (184.8) vs. Gegard Mousasi (184.6)
Zelg Galesic (184.6) vs. Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza (184.4)
Adriano Martins (154) vs. Keita Nakamura (154)
Jimmy Ambriz (290.4) vs. Sergei Kharitonov (253)
Hideo Tokoro (138.4) vs. Atsushi Yamamoto (138.2)
Masakatsu Funaki (198) vs. Ikuhisa Minowa (193.4)
Kuniyoshi Hironaka (167) vs. Hayato "Mach" Sakurai (167.2)
Yoshihiro Akiyama (184.8) vs. Masanori Tonooka (184.1)
Shinya Aoki (153.8) vs. Todd Moore (153.6)
Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic (225.9) vs. Alistair Overeem (241.8)
Monday, September 22, 2008
Dream 6 Picks and Predictions
By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)
With Terry Martin's victory on Saturday, my Public Bet History has improved, and this event could provide the opportunity to break back into the black and start making serious money.
Furthermore, the large number of squash matches will be a nice pad to my General Public Prediction Record.
All that aside, I'm very excited for another full-scale Japanese MMA show with all the pageantry and international talent associated with it. The very high-quality heavyweight matchup of Crocop and Alistair Overeem is guaranteed fireworks, and the winner of the 185-lb grand prix will immediately enter talks as a fantasy matchup for Anderson Silva and other UFC elite middleweights, although the far and away more likely next step for the champ will be Yoshihiro Akiyama.
Melvin Manhoef vs. Gegard Mousasi
Gegard is a pretty amazing fighter, not coming from any elite camp, instead honing his skills with a group of unknowns, but developing them to a level that makes him one of the best fighters in his weight class in any organization. He's very well rounded, with excellent standup and very potent submissions, meaning he can usually attack one-dimensional opponents in the discipline they're least prepared for.
Manhoef is the most electrifying fighter in MMA. With an unbelievable 95% knockout rate across 22 victories, Manhoef's skills as a striker are clear, but he relies on athleticism and explosiveness to make up for the fact that he has almost nothing in the way of wrestling or ground game. He simply flexes his 5'8", ball-of-muscle frame and tries to explode out of any takedown or submission, which works more often than it has any right to.
While Manhoef has the power to put anyone that steps into a ring with him down, Gegard has the range and kickboxing chops to not be in a desperate position on the feet. I expect him to use his skills standing simply to set up a clinch and takedown, where he will handily control Manhoef and likely submit him without much fuss. Even if Manhoef is successful in escaping the first couple of times he is caught or taken down, his go-for-broke style and reliance on huge bursts of energy to escape bad positions will wear him out in short order, opening the possibility of Gegard landing a kick on the feet and knocking him out, but most likely just making the takedown and submission come easier. Gegard Mousasi by submission round 1.
I feel at -155 Gegard is a good wager since he's so heavily favored by the style matchup, especially given the fact that he has the ability to make the fight even or possibly win on the feet in addition to an overwhelming advantage should it hit the mat. I have placed 1 unit on him at -155.
Zelg Galesic vs. Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza
There are questions about Jacare's chin, and Galesic can bang, but other than that, the Croatian is hopeless in this fight, due to his poor wrestling and submission defense. Beyond having some of the best jiu-jitsu in the world, Jacare has a powerful takedown/throw game, so he will most likely come in, toss Zelg to the ground, and submit him within moments. Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza by submission round 1.
Jacare so overmatches Zelg and this match's outcome is so predestined that even at -345, I like Jacare for a unit, since Zelg doesn't have the striking skills to knock him out before Jacare can drag him down.
Mirko "Crocop" Filopovic vs. Alistair Overeem
Mirko is not without his problems, but many people seem to forget that he has the incredible physical tools and talent to be a top-level heavyweight. Alistair Overeem is similarly gifted, but he has some unique problems that have hindered his career, and I expect will continue to do so.
Alistair's biggest problem is staying power. Between bad gas, an apparently fragile chin, and a total inability to recover from being hurt, Alistair is in deep deep waters against Crocop, who is an excellent boxer with heavy hands, on top of his kicking ability. One brutal uppercut from the Croatian will put Alistair into a replay of his second fight with Sergei Kharitonov, which he dominated until the first clean punch he took.
Alistair can only win this fight two ways, as I see it. Crocop has a history of being hurt to the body, and Overeem has the ability to dish out extreme amounts of punishment with knees to the body, so it's feasible that he could finish Crocop off that way. Furthermore, Alistair's offensive wrestling and submission skills are consistently overlooked. When he's fresh, Alistair has the ability to throw his opponents reliably into side mount, where Crocop would be in very big trouble. However, Crocop is as powerful and explosive as Alistair, and has fabulous defensive wrestling, so I expect he will be able to push Overeem off, and punish him with punches.
I don't think Crocop will land the highlight kick in this fight, because it will be over as soon as he uncorks a punch combination that catches Alistair with his guard down, probably within the first five minutes. Mirko "Crocop" Filopovic by KO round 1.
Shinya Aoki vs. Todd Moore
This is a popcorn fight for the Japanese fans. Aoki was added to the card very late, simply as a ratings draw, and as such the powers that be have selected an opponent that does not represent a threat to one of their premiere talents. Aoki is fairly fragile, and Moore is a large opponent, having previously fought at 170, but Todd isn't really known for his power. As a ground and pound wrestler, I don't expect Moore to even begin to be able to get to work on the ground before Aoki locks him up and finishes the fight. Expect a submission in under two minutes. Shinya Aoki by submission round 1.
Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Masanori Tonooka
Like the Yoon Dong Sik fight, this is another case of a crossover Judoka that has become a true MMA talent facing off against a karate convert with no preparation. Akiyama has the submission acumen to dispatch Masanori with ease should he throw him down, which is what the style matchup would dictate. However, I expect Akiyama to flex his well-developed standup, where he has the power in his hands to knock Tonooka back to Mario Brothers 3, where his name fits better. Yoshihiro Akiyama by KO round 1.
Hayato Sakurai vs. Kuniyoshi Hironaka
Sakurai runs hot and cold depending on how committed he is to the fight game. He is one of the most talented guys to have ever fought, but that means he sometimes gets lazy and tries to get by on ability, coming in out of shape and unprepared. Hironaka is a very solid fighter, especially on the ground. While Sakurai should be able to escape anything he throws and simply knock him around for a finish, if Sakurai gets lazy, Nakamura has the ability to catch him in something and upset him.
By all reports Sakurai's preparations for this fight have gone well and he is in excellent shape, having spent most of his time training in the United States rather than drinking in Japan. I expect him to stalk Nakamura until he can finally accumulate enough damage to spring upon him and finish things off. Hayato Sakurai by KO round 1
Ikuhisa Minowa vs. Masakatsu Funaki
Funaki should be in retirement somewhere, drinking beer and doing commercials. Minowa may not be an elite fighter, but he belongs in the ring and still has physical tools. Minowa's insanity and unique weaknesses (lack of punching power) may make this fight more competitive than it should be, but Minowa should be able to beat up and TKO a very old, very shot Funaki. Ikuhisa Minowa TKO round 1
Hideo Tokoro vs. Atsushi Yamamoto
Tokoro's biggest weakness is his chin and willingness to give up position and leave himself open, but Yamamoto doesn't hit hard enough to take advantage of this. Yamamoto is difficult to finish, but Tokoro will simply outwork him and put him in danger more than he is put in danger. Hideo Tokoro via decision.
Sergei Kharitonov vs. Jimmy Ambriz
A late replacement for an apparently injured Mighty Mo Siliga, the enormous Ambriz should be an even easier fight for Sergei. The former powerlifter has become one of those unfortunate breed of ready-to-rock fighters that are always available as an extremely late replacement, but represent little more than a warm body. My only question - where was Gary Goodridge, king of the late replacements? Probably fighting in 3 local K-1 tournaments this week. Sergei's biggest weakness now is that he is bulky and slow, and that he represents a very stationary target, absorbing all his opponents shots with a good chin. However no matter how good your chin is, if you eat everything thrown your way, you will often find yourself beat up, and Ambriz does have the power to potentially exploit this, he suffers from the same problem, and is much less dangerous on the feet. Furthermore, Sergei has a pretty agile submission game for a heavyweight, so he can trip Ambriz and take an armbar off of him pretty easily. This fight shouldn't go long at all. Sergei Kharitonov TKO round 1.
Keita Nakamura vs. Adriano Martins
One of the more evenly matched fights on the card, it's time for Nakamura to show that he was merely in a slump in his 0-3 stint in the UFC. Martins is a quality fighter, but he's not a big finishing threat, and his skills deficit to Nakamura will become more clear as the fight goes on. Nakamura has the skills to find a submission, but I expect a more conservative control game from him, leading to a clear, if uneventful, decision. Keita Nakamura by decision.
Yoon Dong Sik vs. Andrews Nakahara
Yoon Dong Sik in a fight against a Karate guy with almost no MMA experience or training. Dongbar imminent. Yoon Dong Sik via submission round 1.
Hypothetical finals: Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza vs. Gegard Mousasi
While Mousasi has the tougher opponent in the semifinals, Jacare's conditioning has been suspect in the past, and he is at a stylistic disadvantage in this fight. While Jacare has the power to possibly force a takedown, it will be quite a lot of work, and Gegard, while not able to compete with Jacare on the ground, has skills sufficient to prevent a takedown from automatically constituting a loss. On the feet, Gegard's striking is far far more dangerous than Souza's, and his wrestling will prevent Jacare from getting the takedown unless he gets very deep on the attempt. I expect Jacare to be outworked and beat up on the feet, his takedown attempts becoming more and more desperate, until there's simply nothing left in the tank and Gegard can put him down for the count. Gegard Mousasi KO round 2.
My Plays for this event:
1u on Jacare at -345
1u on Gegard Mousasi at -155
.22u on Zelg Galesic at +450
.5u on Melvin Manhoef at +200
1u on Minowa at -325
1u on Crocop at -200
update: Zelg opened against Jacare at +450 on bodog, so I have arbitraged out all my exposure to Jacare.
update: I have no arbitraged out my exposure to Mousasi, picking up Manhoef at +200
Thus, while I stand to gain only a small amount if my picks are correct, I lose nothing if they are wrong, for both fights in the MWGP. For score-keeping purposes, I will score each arbitrage as a single bet, counting it as a win only if I actually make money.