By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)
After this event my General Public Prediction Record remains at an undistinguished 26W-16L-1NC, mostly due to the unpredictable win of "King Mo" and the unfortunate fluke injury to Cyborg.
I went 1-2 on my wagers, lowering my Public Bet History to a career loss of 2.9 units. Again, Cyborg not eating his Wheaties cost me, as in the few seconds the fight had to develop, it looked like I had called it properly. Losing money on Yuki Kondo's loss was just a result of the wrong call. Whenever one bets, one has to make some assumptions, and I made the wrong ones in this case. I knew that Kondo was a faded version of his former self, but the fight that developed showed Kondo really has very little left in the way of passion. It looked like a sparring match.
When you bet that a declining fighter still has enough "in the tank" to beat inferior competition (more on that when I cover Kimbo vs. Shamrock), you take a risk, and that risk didn't pan out for me this time. However, over a large number of fights, I still believe I made the correct play. In fact, had Cyborg not broken his arm, and gone on to win the fight (as I still think he would, especially given his poor training and health) I would have been positive for the event, and moving into the black.
A couple of fighters really impressed me in this event.
Muhammad "King Mo" Lawal looked like a natural fighter, striking well if not technically. He showed good aggression and instincts. If he continues to be 'developed' instead of just taking on a Jimmy Ambriz role of losing fights and picking up paychecks, he could be a quality fighter at 205 lbs.
If we saw all Xande has to offer, his MMA career is going to be nasty, brutish, and short. Not to put undue pressure on the finish, but not being able to work his ground game against such feeble opposition and then gassing out is what the BJJ phenom is going to bring to MMA... I'll pass, thanks.
Santiago and Masvidal were the most impressive and most well-rounded fighters of the night. Both also train at the near-mythical American Top Team. Coincidence? I think not.
Kazuhiro Nakamura seems poised to continue his bento-box mediocrity at a new weight class. A surprising fate for a rare creature - a talented Japanese fighter in the heavier weight classes.
If Sengoku events continue to fizzle as badly as this one did, I don't expect to be writing about the promotion much longer. Speaking of endangered promotions, EliteXC is just around the corner, so get ready.
September 30, 2008
Post Sengoku 5 Notes
What does the future hold for Anderson Silva?
By Garth Hansen (garthhansen@mmaratings.net)
With the UFC's middleweight division being torn to shreds by the skill and power of Anderson "The Spider" Silva, and the worldwide challengers in the weight class seeming to offer little challenge, I decided to explore in this article possible tests that may face Silva in the next couple years. The outcomes are entirely my own predictions and do not reflect the opinion of MMA Ratings or anyone else with a properly functioning brain in any way.
A big ol' pack of dogs
This is an intriguing matchup. Silva has dynamic striking and is extremely light on his feet. A big ol' pack of dogs has the advantage of being composed of many individual dogs, all with their own snapping teeth, which will neutralize Silva's ground game. In the end, however, I see Silva utilizing his superior footwork to pick the pack of dogs apart, finishing the final scrappy rat terrier via rear naked choke in the fourth round.
COBRA
While at first glance this may seem like a lopsided fight, with Silva facing the entire COBRA organization, once you delve a bit deeper you'll see that COBRA actually has a chance. While they've proven again and again that they cannot hit a damn thing with their...laser M16's...COBRA does have a technological edge against a lone man dressed in nothing but very tight pants. COBRA would have an opportunity to win if they were able to get their tanks and helicopters into the arena, and accidentally crash on top of Silva. However, in the end though I see COBRA making a series of mental errors, losing control of their satellite that will blot out the sun or some stupid crap, and the fight ending with Silva brutally kneeing COBRA Commander's mirror face shield at the beginning of the second.
Dr. Daniel Dennett
Noted philosopher Daniel Dennett, author of "Breaking the Spell" the originator of the term "bright" as an alternative to "atheist". I have to say this is probably the biggest mismatch of the potential matchups being discussed here. Many would postulate that anyone would be a better opponent than a kindly old man, even a baby or duckling. Dennett has a long shot chance if he's able to engage his opponent in close with dirty philosophizing, staying in the pocket with a strong epistemological clinch. Sadly the good doctor is far more likely to go down to having his head kicked clean off his body into the fifteenth row. A sad end to a distinguished career, but an interesting memento for a lucky fan.
Lindsay Lohan's Sideboob
No real argument here. Silva would obviously attempt to combat the delectable sideboob, until eventually simply sitting down and gazing at it lovingly, holding his head in his hands tilted at a playful angle. When he failed to stand at the referee's command the fight would be stopped in the first. TKO win for Lohan Sideboob.
John McCain's Jowls in a wrestling singlet
Easily the most horrifying of potential challengers to Silva's UFC belt, McCain's Jowls would offer the particular challenge of a deceptive, elusive style, which would be further obfuscated by a pre-fight bluster and constant drone of empty 
promises. This will serve to distract and confuse Silva. However, McCain has what I believe is a fatal flaw in that he must drag a clueless, unhelpful, blathering partner behind him at all times...Sarah Palin will serve to pin him in place, opening McCain's Jowls up to pinpoint punches and kicks from the heavy-handed Spider. I predict McCain's Jowls will eventually resort to a series of low blows. These will not affect the outcome, just Jowls' reputation, which will be sullied forever and embarrass his fans. Silva by KO (Jowlkick).
September 28, 2008
Sengoku - Fifth Battle
Sengoku 5 is a mixed martial arts event promoted by World Victory Road. The event took place on September 28, 2008 at the Yoyogi National Gymnasium in Tokyo, Japan. It featured the first World Victory Road middleweight grand prix tournament.
Post Sengoku 5 Notes
Sengoku 5 Quick Hits
| Match | Winner | Loser | Method | Round | Time |
| 1 | Jorge Masvidal | Ryan Schultz | TKO (Punches) | 1 | 1:57 |
| 2 | Kiuma Kunioku | A Sol Kwon | Decision (Unanimous) | 3 | 5:00 |
| 3 | Siyar Bahadurzada | Evangelista Santos | TKO (Injury) | 1 | 0:22 |
| 4 | Jorge Santiago | Logan Clark | Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) | 2 | 3:55 |
| 5 | Kazuhiro Nakamura | Paul Cahoon | Decision (Unanimous) | 3 | 5:00 |
| 6 | Yuki Sasaki | Yuki Kondo | Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) | 2 | 1:08 |
| 7 | Muhammed Lawal | Travis Wiuff | TKO (Punches) | 1 | 2:11 |
| 8 | Alexandre Ribeiro | Takashi Sugiura | TKO (Knees and Punches) | 3 | 4:18 |
Sengoku - Fifth Battle - 8. Alexandre Ribeiro vs. Takashi Sugiura
Light Heavyweight bout: Alexandre "Xande" Ribeiro defeated Takashi Sugiura via TKO (Knees and Punches) at 4:18 of round 3.
Read More......Sengoku - Fifth Battle - 7. Muhammad Lawal vs. Travis Wiuff
Heavyweight bout: Muhammad "King Mo" Lawal defeated Travis Wiuff via TKO (Punches)at 2:11 of round 1.
Read More......Sengoku - Fifth Battle - 6. Yuki Sasaki vs. Yuki Kondo
Middleweight Grand Prix bout: Yuki Sasaki defeated Yuki Kondo via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) at 1:08 of round 2.
Read More......Sengoku - Fifth Battle - 5. Kazuhiro Nakamura vs. Paul Cahoon
Middleweight Grand Prix bout: Kazuhiro Nakamura defeated Paul Cahoon via Decision (Unanimous).
Read More......Sengoku - Fifth Battle - 4. Jorge Santiago vs. Logan Clark
Middleweight Grand Prix bout: Jorge Santiago defeated Logan Clark via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) at 3:55 of round 2.
Read More......Sengoku - Fifth Battle - 3. Siyar Bahadurzada vs. Evangelista Santos
Middleweight Grand Prix bout: Siyar Bahadurzada defeated Evangelista “Cyborg” Santos via TKO (Injury) of 0:22 of round 1.
Read More......Sengoku - Fifth Battle - 2. Kiuma Kunioku vs. A Sol Kwon
Lightweight bout: Kiuma Kunioku defeated A Sol Kwon via Decision (Unanimous).
Read More......Sengoku - Fifth Battle - 1. Jorge Masvidal vs. Ryan Schultz
Lightweight GP reserve bout: Jorge Masvidal defeated Ryan Schultz via TKO (Punches) at 1:57 of round 1.
Read More......Sengoku - Fifth Battle (Predictions)
Click the stars to rate how good you think it will be.
Sengoku 5 is an upcoming mixed martial arts event promoted by World Victory Road. The event will take place on September 28, 2008 at the Yoyogi National Gymnasium in Tokyo, Japan. It will feature the first World Victory Road middleweight grand prix tournament.Sengoku 5 Quick Hits
Middleweight Grand Prix:
Yuki Kondo (183) vs. Yuki Sasaki (183)
Evangelista “Cyborg” Santos (180) vs. Siyar Bahadurzada (182)
Jorge Santiago (181) vs. Logan Clark (182)
Kazuhiro Nakamura (183) vs. Paul Cahoon (181)
Non-Tournament Bouts:
Jorge Masvidal (154) vs. Ryan Schultz (154)(Lightweight GP reserve bout)
Alexandre "Xande" Ribeiro (204) vs. Takashi Sugiura (204)
Travis Wiuff (247) vs. Muhammed Lawal (221)
Kiuma Kunioku (154) vs. A Sol Kwon (154)
September 27, 2008
Sengoku 5 Quick Hits
By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)
World Victory Road is quickly becoming an also-ran promotion in my mind, but still has many elite fighters in various weight classes existing in an unfortunate limbo of fighting prospects or squash matches.
The 185-lb tournament to face Kazuo Misaki is very ho-hum, but it's still a must-watch if you want to keep up with the careers of some talented fighters.
It also offers some attractive betting lines to repair my Public Bet History, now down -1.42 units across four events.
I will not be breaking down all the fights on the card, but most will be added to my General Public Prediction Record currently sporting a 60% prediction rate at 21W-13L-1NC.
Main Event: Xande Ribeiro vs. Takashi Sugiura
It's interesting how often Japanese promotions feature utterly non-competitive fights as main events, although EliteXC is trying to close the gap on that. Ribeiro should submit an old pro-wrestler with little MMA experience early. The only danger is if Xande's chin turns out to be a better fit for BJJ than MMA, since old pro-wrestlers are usually at least a little bit tough and brawly. Expecting anything other than a quick and pointless first-round submission is foolishness, however. Ribeiro by submission round 1.
Siyar Bahadurzada (-150) vs. Evangelista "Cyborg" Santos (+120)
Cyborg is flawed--he gasses badly, tends to get out of control, is weak on the floor, and gives up if he takes a lot of damage. However, the guy can bang, and trashes opponents if he can find an opening.
Siyar is very stiff on the feet, leaning and throwing wildly. He's not great wrestler, and does not have a lot on the ground. His biggest weakness in this fight will be his movement. He's very flat footed, leans quite a lot, and otherwise leaves himself open to brawling.
I expect Cyborg to be able to pile up the damage until Siyar is simply done. Cyborg by TKO Round 3.
Since Cyborg is a decent underdog at +120, I have placed a unit on him to win. He's incomplete as a fighter, so there is risk, but I think the extra juice of him being an underdog should cover that risk.
Yuki Kondo (-120) vs. Yuki Sasaki (-110)
Yuki Kondo is a has-been, but Yuki Sasaki is a never-was. Sasaki has 21 wins, but none of them are against a fighter even at Kondo's level. Sasaki's only weapon here is going to be his submissions, but it's very difficult to submit Yuki Kondo if you're not ten times his size like a Roger Gracie or Josh Barnett. Kondo can only ever finish an opponent if he lands a clean headkick, so expect a lackluster decision. Yuki Kondo by Decision.
I think Kondo's experience is being undervalued at -120. He's done being a top fighter, if he ever was, but he hasn't lost his skill set and can still beat the likes of Sasaki.
Paul Cahoon (+550) vs. Kazuhiro Nakamura (-750)
Cahoon is your prototypical British brawler with no ground game, and recently lost to Ian Freeman, which really just about says it all. Nakamura is far more well rounded, although he has extreme difficulty finishing fights. He is tough enough to survive on the feet, and has surprisingly good boxing with his stubby little arms. Unless Cahoon gasses badly and Nakamura takes mount and just lands 100 unanswered strikes, this fight is going to be a control decision for Nakamura. At these extreme odds no bet is worthwhile. Nakamura by Decision.
Logan Clark (+280) vs. Jorge Santiago (-350)
Clark's weakness, like many talented fighters that never make it over the hump, is that he simply cannot find a way to finish most of his opponents. His strikes merely bruise most fighters, and his opponents slip out of his submissions. Santiago is technically excellent, but fragile and prone to disintegration. The problem for Clark in this fight is that Santiago is going to be winning most of the time due to technical superiority, so unless Clark can dig deep and find a way to hurt Jorge badly, the decision is going to come against him. I think Clark is going to have to work harder and harder to control and avoid getting submitted, in addition to his takedowns becoming more and more desperate. It will be close, but I think the ATT product will finish him off late in the fight, and given Santiago's well-rounded skills and striking power, a submission is almost as likely as a KO. Jorge Santiago by KO round 3.
There is value on Clark if you think Santiago's chin is bad enough to be hurt by him, but I am avoiding wagering on this fight.
Jorge Masvidal (-190) vs. Ryan Schultz (+155)
Masvidal has a ton of power in his kicks and has the toughness and endurance to go late into fights. Schultz has the unfortunate habit of going deeper into fights than his cardio can tolerate, fading badly, and getting knocked over. Masvidal will have trouble off the bat, but will land something show-stopping late in the fight. Masvidal by KO round 2.
I think -190 isn't enough to account for the advantages Masvidal enjoys in this fight, given how well-rounded he is and Schultz's near-journeyman status. I have a play here.
My plays:
1u on Jorge Masvidal at -190
1u on Yuki Kondo at -120
1u on Cyborg Santos at +120
September 24, 2008
Post Dream 6 Notes
By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)
Dream 6 really encapsulated all that makes up Japanese MMA. It featured world-class talent alongside has-beens and amateurs. The best production values in the world surrounded fights that were sometimes pedestrian. There were competitive high-level matches interspersed with embarassing mismatches. Lastly, at times it was downright weird, between spending two hours waiting for Crocop's testicle to re-descend (with the feed helpfully changing to cameras with a view of the Cro-Crotch unobstructed by any referee's towels) and the fight of the night ended in perhaps the most awkward post-victory position possible, with the runner-up taking a nap on top of the champion.
In terms of wagering, someone who followed all my plays lost a fraction of a unit, although if you just went along with my first (and best) picks, you gained almost a unit. My Public Bet History is now down -1.42 units across four events, but I expect it to be up any day now.
Thankfully the event's squash matches has bloated my General Public Prediction Record. to a less-embarassing 60% at 21W-13L-1NC.
Melvin Manhoef vs. Gegard Mousasi
This fight went exactly as expected. Manhoef has reportedly been working very diligently on his ground game with some top competitors, but maybe developing a respectable ground game just isn't in the cards. Mousasi showed good composure and demonstrated that his ground game is as good as we thought. Manhoef really shouldn't be used like this in the future. He's too exciting to waste getting submitted. I would love to see him beat up some old pro wrestlers or similarly hapless opponents, as a curtain jerker.
Betting on Gegard in this fight at -155 was the right choice. I would have made more profit if I had not arbitraged out all my risk, but I chose to be more conservative, which worked against me in this instance.
Zelg Galesic vs. Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza
Here Jacare showed why he has more crossover potential than most BJJ wizards - he has an aggressive and powerful takedown game, and he's simply an incredible athlete. Once the fight was on the ground, it was academic. Jacare can make his BJJ work in MMA, and he has the skills to put the fight on the floor against most opponents. End of story.
I again cost myself some money by arbitraging out all my risk, but given the events of the tournament finals, and the unfavorable odds I had on Jacare in the first place, I think it was the smart choice.
Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza vs. Gegard Mousasi
It's pretty satisfying to call even a four man tournament correctly. I was impressed that Jacare was able to take Gegard down without overmuch fuss, and Gegard did a good job of surviving and coming close to escape. Upkicks are a funny thing. I have expressed questions about Jacare's chin in the past, and I don't think this loss really answers any questions one way or the other. The kick landed very cleanly, after a huge windup from Gegard, right on the button. Yes Jacare was out stone cold, taking a trip to the land of Nod, but it's very difficult to compare the strike he took to many others. Either way, Gegard is one of the most well-rounded fighters in the business, and nobody is safe with him in any position!
Mirko "Crocop" Filopovic vs. Alistair Overeem
Remember when Crocop used to be a good fighter? This was a disappointing fight with a dreadful finish. Overeem looked very good, but he always looks good early in his fights. Crocop really looked dead and defeated even before the groin strikes, but I doubt many fighters would continue with the kind of damage Mirko took to "the bad part of the midsection". Mirko looked lethargic and slow, which is very bad considering he makes his money through his explosive power. While it certainly appeared another Croatian loss was in order, as I said before, Overeem can disintegrate at any moment.
In retrospect, betting on Crocop at -200 was a bad play, but I think I wasn't far off given the available information before the fight.
Shinya Aoki vs. Todd Moore
Shinya Aoki is a pretty good grappler and former policeman. Todd Moore is from Texas. Aoki won this fight.
Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Masanori Tonooka
Tonooka looked like garbage and lost the fight everywhere it took place. Akiyama looked like he'd taken a bet with someone that he could finish the fight with something other than an armbar. Poor gameplanning, possibly simply as a result of overconfidence.
Hayato Sakurai vs. Kuniyoshi Hironaka
Sakurai, even unmotivated, is simply a better fighter than Hironaka, and Hironaka showed he is a better fighter than the Hironaka we saw in the UFC.
Ikuhisa Minowa vs. Masakatsu Funaki
Remember when I talked about Minowa's "insanity"? Well part of that is playing leglock footsie with someone whose only feasible way of beating you is a leglock. If Minowa had just brawled, pounded, gone for lay-and-pray, or simply ran away from Funaki for 5 minutes until his arthritis kicked in and he keeled over, Minowa would have taken this fight easily. Instead, he threw himself into the worst possible position and got his leg jacked up.
Betting on Minowa was probably the worst recommendation I've made since starting this blog. I only lost 1 unit on this play, but it was simply bone-headed. Minowa is a flake and fights dumb. Minowa has questionable defense. And worst of all, Minowa comes from Japanese pro-wrestling and has been involved in some of the most shady fights in mainstream MMA (his wins over Kimo and Butterbean). At -325 I should have run screaming from this bet, and I would have if I'd simply sat and thought about it rather than gotten excited when the line opened. Add that to the lesson list - think things through and decide which fights you would like to bet on at what odds BEFORE the lines open.
Hideo Tokoro vs. Atsushi Yamamoto
Yamamoto has really improved his boxing, and looked sharp out there, even if he still has no power. Tokoro still has problems with his chin and with taking too much punishment.
Sergei Kharitonov vs. Jimmy Ambriz
Remember when Sergei Kharitonov used to be a good fighter? He looked like garbage in this fight, even though he was fighting some kind of cartoon superhero character that had retired and gotten fat. Jimmy Ambriz is just a ridiculous looking person, and this fight was embarrassing. Ambriz has basically nothing to offer in the way of offense or defense from any position. Sergei looked fat, hittable, and slow. Remember when he broke out in Pride, how he was a huge guy, buy lean at around 230 lbs, and moved well for his size? That's all done, apparently. He's still far more well-rounded than most heavyweights, but if he keeps coming in to fights in this kind of physical condition, he's going to have serious problems against anyone that can really hit, because no matter how tough you are, if you keep getting hit, you will lose.
Keita Nakamura vs. Adriano Martins
Nakamura showed some good boxing, but Martins basically looked like a BJJ coach who doesn't care about MMA, but is connected to a well-respected team, and is just out to get a paycheck. Which is what he was.
Yoon Dong Sik vs. Andrews Nakahara
Dong should have won this fight, if he gave up on his fetish for the ezekial choke. Nakahara seems to have developed upon the natural talents he showed in the Sakuraba fight. He still doesn't know how to wrestle or grapple properly, but he has flashes of natural talent and the athletic tools to make what he does know how to do work for him. Maybe if he continues to trail well and get high-quality training, he can make something of himself in MMA. Or maybe he can continue to fight for FEG and get thrown to Akiyama in his next fight followed by Hong Man Choi and lose horribly and then basically be a spent force in MMA, which is far more likely.
Overall a solid event, but one that didn't live up to its potential, mostly due to the sudden finishes to all the tournament bouts and the failure of Crocop/Overeem to even begin to live up to the hype.
September 23, 2008
Dream 6 - Olympia
DREAM.6: Middle Weight Grandprix 2008 Final Round was held at the Saitama Super Arena, in Saitama, Japan on September 23, 2008. The event hosted the crowning of DREAM's first Middleweight Champion after the conclusion of the Middleweight Grand Prix.Post Dream 6 Notes
Dream 6 Picks and Predictions
| Match | Winner | Loser | Method | Round | Time |
| 1 | Andrews Nakahara | Dong Sik Yoon | TKO (Punches) | 2 | 0:30 |
| 2 | Gegard Mousasi | Melvin Manhoef | Submission (Triangle Choke) | 1 | 1:28 |
| 3 | Ronaldo Souza | Zelg Galesic | Submission (Armbar) | 1 | 1:27 |
| 4 | Keita Nakamura | Adriano Martins | Decision (Split) | 2 | 5:00 |
| 5 | Sergei Kharitonov | Jimmy Ambriz | Submission (Punches) | 1 | 2:15 |
| 6 | Atsushi Yamamoto | Hideo Tokoro | Decision (Unanimous) | 2 | 5:00 |
| 7 | Masakatsu Funaki | Ikuhisa Minowa | Submission (Heel Hook) | 1 | 0:52 |
| 8 | Hayato Sakurai | Kuniyoshi Hironaka | Decision (Unanimous) | 2 | 5:00 |
| 9 | Yoshihiro Akiyama | Masanori Tonooka | Submission (Armbar) | 1 | 6:26 |
| 10 | Shinya Aoki | Todd Moore | Submission (Neck Crank) | 1 | 1:10 |
| 11 | Alistair Overeem | Mirko Filipovic | No Contest (Knee to the Groin) | 1 | |
| 12 | Gegard Mousasi | Ronaldo Souza | KO (Upkick) | 1 | 2:15 |
Dream 6 - Olympia - 12. Gegard Mousasi vs. Ronaldo de Souza
Middleweight GP Championship bout: Gegard Mousasi defeated Ronaldo "Jacare" de Souza via KO (Upkick) at 2:15 of the first round.
Dream 6 - Olympia - 11. Alistair Overeem vs. Mirko Filipovic
Heavyweight bout: Alistair Overeem vs. Mirko "Crocop" Filipovic ended via No Contest (Knee to the Groin) during the first round.
Dream 6 - Olympia - 10. Shinya Aoki vs. Todd Moore
Lightweight Bout: Shinya Aoki defeated Todd Moore via Submission (Neck Crank) at 1:10 of the first round.
Read More......Dream 6 - Olympia - 9. Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Masanori Tonooka
Middleweight Bout: Yoshihiro Akiyama defeated Masanori Tonooka via Submission (Armbar) at 6:26 of the first round.
Read More......Dream 6 - Olympia - 8. Hayato Sakurai vs. Kuniyoshi Hironaka
Welterweight Bout: Hayato "Mach" Sakurai defeated Kuniyoshi Hironaka via Decision (Unanimous).
Read More......Dream 6 - Olympia - 7. Masakatsu Funaki vs. Ikuhisa Minowa
Middleweight Bout: Masakatsu Funaki defeated Ikuhisa "Minowaman" Minowa via Submission (Heel Hook) at 0:52 of the first round.
Read More......Dream 6 - Olympia - 6. Atsushi Yamamoto vs. Hideo Tokoro
Featherweight bout: Atsushi Yamamoto defeated Hideo Tokoro via Decision (Unanimous).
Dream 6 - Olympia - 5. Sergei Kharitonov vs. Jimmy Ambriz
Heavyweight bout: Sergei Kharitonov defeated Jimmy Ambriz via Submission (Punches) at 2:15 of the first round.
Read More......Dream 6 - Olympia - 4. Keita Nakamura vs. Adriano Martins
Lightweight Bout: Keita "Ktaro" Nakamura defeated Adriano Martins via Decision (Split).
Read More......Dream 6 - Olympia - 3. Ronaldo de Souza vs. Zelg Galesic
Middleweight Grand Prix bout: Ronaldo "Jacare" de Souza defeated Zelg Galesic via Submission (Armbar) at 1:27 of the first round.
Read More......Dream 6 - Olympia - 2. Gegard Mousasi vs. Melvin Manhoef
Middleweight Grand Prix bout: Gegard Mousasi defeated Melvin Manhoef via Submission (Triangle Choke) at 1:28 of the first round.
Read More......Dream 6 - Olympia - 1. Andrews Nakahara vs. Yoon Dong-sik
Middleweight Grand Prix reserve bout: Andrews Nakahara defeated Yoon Dong-sik via TKO (Punches) at 0:30 of the second round.
Dream 6 - Olympia (Predictions)
Click the stars to rate how good you think it will be.
DREAM.6: Middle Weight Grandprix 2008 Final Round is to be held at the Saitama Super Arena, in Saitama, Japan on September 23, 2008. The event will host the crowning of DREAM's first Middleweight Champion after the conclusion of the Middleweight Grand Prix.Dream 6 Picks and Predictions
Andrews Nakahara (183.7) vs. Yoon Dong Sik (184.8)
Melvin Manhoef (184.8) vs. Gegard Mousasi (184.6)
Zelg Galesic (184.6) vs. Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza (184.4)
Adriano Martins (154) vs. Keita Nakamura (154)
Jimmy Ambriz (290.4) vs. Sergei Kharitonov (253)
Hideo Tokoro (138.4) vs. Atsushi Yamamoto (138.2)
Masakatsu Funaki (198) vs. Ikuhisa Minowa (193.4)
Kuniyoshi Hironaka (167) vs. Hayato "Mach" Sakurai (167.2)
Yoshihiro Akiyama (184.8) vs. Masanori Tonooka (184.1)
Shinya Aoki (153.8) vs. Todd Moore (153.6)
Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic (225.9) vs. Alistair Overeem (241.8)
September 22, 2008
Dream 6 Picks and Predictions
By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)
With Terry Martin's victory on Saturday, my Public Bet History has improved, and this event could provide the opportunity to break back into the black and start making serious money.
Furthermore, the large number of squash matches will be a nice pad to my General Public Prediction Record.
All that aside, I'm very excited for another full-scale Japanese MMA show with all the pageantry and international talent associated with it. The very high-quality heavyweight matchup of Crocop and Alistair Overeem is guaranteed fireworks, and the winner of the 185-lb grand prix will immediately enter talks as a fantasy matchup for Anderson Silva and other UFC elite middleweights, although the far and away more likely next step for the champ will be Yoshihiro Akiyama.
Melvin Manhoef vs. Gegard Mousasi
Gegard is a pretty amazing fighter, not coming from any elite camp, instead honing his skills with a group of unknowns, but developing them to a level that makes him one of the best fighters in his weight class in any organization. He's very well rounded, with excellent standup and very potent submissions, meaning he can usually attack one-dimensional opponents in the discipline they're least prepared for.
Manhoef is the most electrifying fighter in MMA. With an unbelievable 95% knockout rate across 22 victories, Manhoef's skills as a striker are clear, but he relies on athleticism and explosiveness to make up for the fact that he has almost nothing in the way of wrestling or ground game. He simply flexes his 5'8", ball-of-muscle frame and tries to explode out of any takedown or submission, which works more often than it has any right to.
While Manhoef has the power to put anyone that steps into a ring with him down, Gegard has the range and kickboxing chops to not be in a desperate position on the feet. I expect him to use his skills standing simply to set up a clinch and takedown, where he will handily control Manhoef and likely submit him without much fuss. Even if Manhoef is successful in escaping the first couple of times he is caught or taken down, his go-for-broke style and reliance on huge bursts of energy to escape bad positions will wear him out in short order, opening the possibility of Gegard landing a kick on the feet and knocking him out, but most likely just making the takedown and submission come easier. Gegard Mousasi by submission round 1.
I feel at -155 Gegard is a good wager since he's so heavily favored by the style matchup, especially given the fact that he has the ability to make the fight even or possibly win on the feet in addition to an overwhelming advantage should it hit the mat. I have placed 1 unit on him at -155.
Zelg Galesic vs. Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza
There are questions about Jacare's chin, and Galesic can bang, but other than that, the Croatian is hopeless in this fight, due to his poor wrestling and submission defense. Beyond having some of the best jiu-jitsu in the world, Jacare has a powerful takedown/throw game, so he will most likely come in, toss Zelg to the ground, and submit him within moments. Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza by submission round 1.
Jacare so overmatches Zelg and this match's outcome is so predestined that even at -345, I like Jacare for a unit, since Zelg doesn't have the striking skills to knock him out before Jacare can drag him down.
Mirko "Crocop" Filopovic vs. Alistair Overeem
Mirko is not without his problems, but many people seem to forget that he has the incredible physical tools and talent to be a top-level heavyweight. Alistair Overeem is similarly gifted, but he has some unique problems that have hindered his career, and I expect will continue to do so.
Alistair's biggest problem is staying power. Between bad gas, an apparently fragile chin, and a total inability to recover from being hurt, Alistair is in deep deep waters against Crocop, who is an excellent boxer with heavy hands, on top of his kicking ability. One brutal uppercut from the Croatian will put Alistair into a replay of his second fight with Sergei Kharitonov, which he dominated until the first clean punch he took.
Alistair can only win this fight two ways, as I see it. Crocop has a history of being hurt to the body, and Overeem has the ability to dish out extreme amounts of punishment with knees to the body, so it's feasible that he could finish Crocop off that way. Furthermore, Alistair's offensive wrestling and submission skills are consistently overlooked. When he's fresh, Alistair has the ability to throw his opponents reliably into side mount, where Crocop would be in very big trouble. However, Crocop is as powerful and explosive as Alistair, and has fabulous defensive wrestling, so I expect he will be able to push Overeem off, and punish him with punches.
I don't think Crocop will land the highlight kick in this fight, because it will be over as soon as he uncorks a punch combination that catches Alistair with his guard down, probably within the first five minutes. Mirko "Crocop" Filopovic by KO round 1.
Shinya Aoki vs. Todd Moore
This is a popcorn fight for the Japanese fans. Aoki was added to the card very late, simply as a ratings draw, and as such the powers that be have selected an opponent that does not represent a threat to one of their premiere talents. Aoki is fairly fragile, and Moore is a large opponent, having previously fought at 170, but Todd isn't really known for his power. As a ground and pound wrestler, I don't expect Moore to even begin to be able to get to work on the ground before Aoki locks him up and finishes the fight. Expect a submission in under two minutes. Shinya Aoki by submission round 1.
Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Masanori Tonooka
Like the Yoon Dong Sik fight, this is another case of a crossover Judoka that has become a true MMA talent facing off against a karate convert with no preparation. Akiyama has the submission acumen to dispatch Masanori with ease should he throw him down, which is what the style matchup would dictate. However, I expect Akiyama to flex his well-developed standup, where he has the power in his hands to knock Tonooka back to Mario Brothers 3, where his name fits better. Yoshihiro Akiyama by KO round 1.
Hayato Sakurai vs. Kuniyoshi Hironaka
Sakurai runs hot and cold depending on how committed he is to the fight game. He is one of the most talented guys to have ever fought, but that means he sometimes gets lazy and tries to get by on ability, coming in out of shape and unprepared. Hironaka is a very solid fighter, especially on the ground. While Sakurai should be able to escape anything he throws and simply knock him around for a finish, if Sakurai gets lazy, Nakamura has the ability to catch him in something and upset him.
By all reports Sakurai's preparations for this fight have gone well and he is in excellent shape, having spent most of his time training in the United States rather than drinking in Japan. I expect him to stalk Nakamura until he can finally accumulate enough damage to spring upon him and finish things off. Hayato Sakurai by KO round 1
Ikuhisa Minowa vs. Masakatsu Funaki
Funaki should be in retirement somewhere, drinking beer and doing commercials. Minowa may not be an elite fighter, but he belongs in the ring and still has physical tools. Minowa's insanity and unique weaknesses (lack of punching power) may make this fight more competitive than it should be, but Minowa should be able to beat up and TKO a very old, very shot Funaki. Ikuhisa Minowa TKO round 1
Hideo Tokoro vs. Atsushi Yamamoto
Tokoro's biggest weakness is his chin and willingness to give up position and leave himself open, but Yamamoto doesn't hit hard enough to take advantage of this. Yamamoto is difficult to finish, but Tokoro will simply outwork him and put him in danger more than he is put in danger. Hideo Tokoro via decision.
Sergei Kharitonov vs. Jimmy Ambriz
A late replacement for an apparently injured Mighty Mo Siliga, the enormous Ambriz should be an even easier fight for Sergei. The former powerlifter has become one of those unfortunate breed of ready-to-rock fighters that are always available as an extremely late replacement, but represent little more than a warm body. My only question - where was Gary Goodridge, king of the late replacements? Probably fighting in 3 local K-1 tournaments this week. Sergei's biggest weakness now is that he is bulky and slow, and that he represents a very stationary target, absorbing all his opponents shots with a good chin. However no matter how good your chin is, if you eat everything thrown your way, you will often find yourself beat up, and Ambriz does have the power to potentially exploit this, he suffers from the same problem, and is much less dangerous on the feet. Furthermore, Sergei has a pretty agile submission game for a heavyweight, so he can trip Ambriz and take an armbar off of him pretty easily. This fight shouldn't go long at all. Sergei Kharitonov TKO round 1.
Keita Nakamura vs. Adriano Martins
One of the more evenly matched fights on the card, it's time for Nakamura to show that he was merely in a slump in his 0-3 stint in the UFC. Martins is a quality fighter, but he's not a big finishing threat, and his skills deficit to Nakamura will become more clear as the fight goes on. Nakamura has the skills to find a submission, but I expect a more conservative control game from him, leading to a clear, if uneventful, decision. Keita Nakamura by decision.
Yoon Dong Sik vs. Andrews Nakahara
Yoon Dong Sik in a fight against a Karate guy with almost no MMA experience or training. Dongbar imminent. Yoon Dong Sik via submission round 1.
Hypothetical finals: Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza vs. Gegard Mousasi
While Mousasi has the tougher opponent in the semifinals, Jacare's conditioning has been suspect in the past, and he is at a stylistic disadvantage in this fight. While Jacare has the power to possibly force a takedown, it will be quite a lot of work, and Gegard, while not able to compete with Jacare on the ground, has skills sufficient to prevent a takedown from automatically constituting a loss. On the feet, Gegard's striking is far far more dangerous than Souza's, and his wrestling will prevent Jacare from getting the takedown unless he gets very deep on the attempt. I expect Jacare to be outworked and beat up on the feet, his takedown attempts becoming more and more desperate, until there's simply nothing left in the tank and Gegard can put him down for the count. Gegard Mousasi KO round 2.
My Plays for this event:
1u on Jacare at -345
1u on Gegard Mousasi at -155
.22u on Zelg Galesic at +450
.5u on Melvin Manhoef at +200
1u on Minowa at -325
1u on Crocop at -200
update: Zelg opened against Jacare at +450 on bodog, so I have arbitraged out all my exposure to Jacare.
update: I have no arbitraged out my exposure to Mousasi, picking up Manhoef at +200
Thus, while I stand to gain only a small amount if my picks are correct, I lose nothing if they are wrong, for both fights in the MWGP. For score-keeping purposes, I will score each arbitrage as a single bet, counting it as a win only if I actually make money.
September 20, 2008
Strikeforce - At The Mansion II
Strikeforce: At The Mansion II took place at the Playboy Mansion in Beverly Hills, California, and was streamed live by Sherdog.Quick Hits for Strikeforce at the Playboy Mansion
* This card was originally going to include Bobby Southworth vs. Renato "Babalu" Sobral. Anthony Ruiz replaced an injured Bobby Southworth and Trevor Prangley replaced Renato "Babalu" Sobral.
| Match | Winner | Loser | Method | Round | Time |
| 1 | Jesse Gillespie | Dave Martin | Decision (Split) | 3 | 3:00 |
| 2 | Brandon Magana | Brandon Thatch | Decision (Split) | 3 | 3:00 |
| 3 | Eric Lawson | Kenneth Seegrist | Submission (Rear Naked Choke) | 1 | 3:07 |
| 4 | Luke Stewart | Jesse Juarez | Submission (Armbar) | 1 | 4:55 |
| 5 | Trevor Prangley | Anthony Ruiz | Decision (Unanimous) | 3 | 5:00 |
| 6 | Mitsuhiro Ishida | Justin Wilcox | Submission (Armbar) | 1 | 1:21 |
| 7 | Terry Martin | Cory Devela | TKO | 3 | 2:08 |
| 8 | Josh Thomson | Ashe Bowman | TKO | 1 | 1:14 |
| 9 | Kazuo Misaki | Joe Riggs | TKO | 2 | 2:29 |
Strikeforce - At The Mansion II - 9. Kazuo Misaki vs. Joe Riggs
Middleweight bout: Kazuo Misaki defeated Joe Riggs via TKO at 2:29 of round 2.
Read More......Strikeforce - At The Mansion II - 8. Josh Thomson vs. Ashe Bowman
Lightweight bout: Josh Thomson defeated Ashe Bowman via TKO at 1:14 of round 1.
Read More......Strikeforce - At The Mansion II - 7. Terry Martin vs. Cory Devela
Middleweight bout: Terry Martin defeated Cory Devela via TKO at 2:08 of round 3.
Read More......Strikeforce - At The Mansion II - 6. Mitsuhiro Ishida vs. Justin Wilcox
Lightweight bout: Mitsuhiro Ishida defeated Justin Wilcox via Submission (Armbar) at 1:21 of round 1.
Read More......Strikeforce - At The Mansion II - 5. Trevor Prangley vs. Anthony Ruiz
Light heavyweight bout: Trevor Prangley defeated Anthony Ruiz via Decision (Unanimous).
Read More......Strikeforce - At The Mansion II - 4. Luke Stewart vs. Jesse Juarez
Welterweight bout: Luke Stewart defeated Jesse Juarez via Submission (Armbar) at 4:55 of round 1.
Read More......Strikeforce - At The Mansion II - 3. Eric Lawson vs. Kenneth Seegrist
Middleweight bout: Eric Lawson defeated Kenneth Seegrist via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) 1 3:07 of round 1.
Read More......Strikeforce - At The Mansion II - 2. Brandon Magana vs. Brandon Thatch
Welterweight bout: Brandon Magana defeated Brandon Thatch via Decision (Split).
Read More......Strikeforce - At The Mansion II - 1. Jesse Gillespie vs. Dave Martin
Light heavyweight bout: Jesse Gillespie defeated Dave Martin via Decision (Split).
Read More......Strikeforce - At The Mansion II (Predictions)
Click the stars to rate how good you think it will be.
Strikeforce: At The Mansion II will take place at the Playboy Mansion in Beverly Hills, California, and will be streamed live by Sherdog.Quick Hits for Strikeforce at the Playboy Mansion
Lineup:
Kazuo Misaki (185) vs. Joe Riggs (181.5)
Ashe Bowman (154.5) vs. Josh Thomson (155.5)
Mitsuhiro Ishida (156) vs. Justin Wilcox (155)
Anthony Ruiz (204) vs. Trevor Prangley (203) *
Jesse Juarez (171) vs. Luke Stewart (169.5)
Terry Martin (185.5) vs. Cory Devela (185.5)
Kenneth Seegrist (183) vs. Eric Lawson (184.5)
Brandon Thatch (170.5) vs. Brandon Magana (172)
Jesse Gillespie (194) vs. Dave Martin (190.5)
* This fight was originally supposed to be Bobby Southworth vs. Renato "Babalu" Sobral.
September 19, 2008
Quick Hits for Strikeforce at the Playboy Mansion
By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)
Misaki vs. Joe Riggs
Riggs has a lot of problems. His striking isn't that crisp, he's a flake, he gets injured a lot, he gasses, he doesn't back his wrestling up with a solid control game, and he ends up in submissions far too often. Misaki's only real weakness is that he has poor takedown defense and isn't a wizard off his back, so the Frank Trigg type fighter is a nightmare for him. This is compounded by the fact that he may be a bit small for the division.
Misaki does, however, have an awkward counter-striking style, a truly excellent chin, good submission offense, and the ability to land trips and end up in good positions when his opponent doesn't expect it. Add those factors to worlds of experience, and Misaki should easily dispatch of Joe Riggs, whether he simply outpoints and dictates the pace of the fight, knocks Riggs out cold, or knocks him over and lands a submission.
At the current betting lines there's little value in this fight, because Riggs does have flashes of brilliance, making Misaki an unacceptable risk, but Riggs flakiness also make him a bet I'd avoid even at extreme underdog odds like these.
Terry Martin vs. Cory Devala
Martin is coming off a terrible streak of going 1-3, with the win coming by way of DQ (although Terry was dominating that fight). Fortunately for Terry, all those losses came at the hands of high-caliber opponents. Between Martin's wrestling and his punching power, I expect him to be able to control the fight and beat up Devala, who is too raw at this point.
I have placed 1u on Martin at -165, because I think his skills are being underrated after losses to tough competition. His wrestling will interrupt Devala's game and his boxing and power will put Devala on the back foot from the get-go. If things get rough for Terry, he can simply control the fight in the clinch. So as only a modest favorite, I like him.
The rest of the card
Mitsuhiro Ishida, Trevor Prangley, and Josh Thomson are all fighting on the card, but these fights will only be notable if they lose, since each is far better than their opponent. Tune in for the rare sight of Ishida actually finishing an opponent.
My plays:
1u on Terry Martin at -165
Post UFN 15 Notes
By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)
The story of Ultimate Fight Night 15, for me, was one of missed opportunities. Despite strong hunches that Belcher and Massenzio were live underdogs, I did not take the risk on them, and missed out on what could have been an overall profit. Betting on 4 underdogs, I went 1-3, losing half a unit, bringing me to 3-6 and -1.966u over my (brief) public career and further dropping my public prediction average. Where did I go wrong (aside from not playing with confidence)?
Nate Diaz vs. Josh Neer
I was pretty accurate in predicting this fight, but I did not anticipate Neer would try to fight on the ground right off the bat, nor that he would barely even try to win in the third round. I’ve heard that Neer had trouble with his weight cut, which would explain his fading in the late rounds, especially since the fight was so active. Neer looked sharp and was able to muscle Diaz around easily. Diaz’s total lack of physical strength will eventually hurt him, since even at lightweight there are a lot of very big strong guys. Diaz did a better job in this fight of avoiding damage and not just getting beat up while looking for submissions. While I lost, I think this was still a smart bet at +180.
Mac Danzig vs. Clay Guida
This fight came down to razor-thin margins—two judges had the fight even going into the third round. Danzig won the standup in the fight, looking very sharp, and if he’d been able to avoid the takedown until later in the round, he controlled and defended well enough off his back that he’d have likely been the winner. I underestimated Guida’s takedown game, which had only seemed above-average, and aggressive prior to this fight. Other than that I cannot see any major errors in my thinking about this fight when I bet on it.
Houston Alexander vs. Eric Schafer
This fight went about as expected, although I underestimated Schafer’s ability to take a shot. I accurately expected Schafer to eat a few heavy shots on the feet, but I incorrectly expected them to finish him off. As I thought, Alexander simply tried to power out of any takedown attempt or dominant position, with predictably poor results. Betting on Schafer was a good bet, although if I’d waited around, the odds on him improved quite a bit beyond +185, which surprised me, since Houston had lost the respect of so many hardcore fans due to his pathetic performances prior to this fight. Perhaps hardcore fans have very little to do with determining MMA betting lines, something to remember in the future.
Alan Belcher vs. Ed Herman
This fight went exactly as predicted. Herman has a seriously good chin, and he showed that the hard way in this fight. Belcher is very talented but needs to tighten up his game and fight with more discipline. He nearly threw away the decision in the third round, fooling around and showing off. With the very good odds on Belcher, especially given the fact that I thought he should have been an outright favorite, I was foolish not to bet. I was spooked by so many other pundits picking against Belcher and the odds being so uneven, which made me think I had done my analysis poorly.
Kyle Bradley vs. Joe Lauzon
Lauzon looked good in this fight. His standup seemed improved, although Bradley is by no means top-class opposition. The small flier I put on Bradley at +500 seems to have been justified by Bradley working the jab and hurting Lauzon briefly.
Wilson Gouveia vs. Ryan Jensen
I have not been able to watch this fight yet. Apparently Gouveia got beat up in the first round, so that’s something to remember going forward, and a good reason to avoid betting on or against Gouveia.
Drew McFedries vs. Mike Massenzio
I have not been able to watch this fight yet. While I did a good job of recognizing Massenzio’s ability to take down and control McFedries, I underestimated his submissions (or overestimated McFedries ground skills when I thought them competent). Since Massenzio was available at better than +200 at some points, the style matchup should have led me to bet with confidence.
Alessio Sakara vs. Joe Vedepo
Maybe Sakara isn’t a total lost cause. His defensive wrestling and (obviously) his kicks looked good in this fight, although he did get knocked around a little, although that works to his benefit, in my opinion, because it shows he won’t always wilt in the face of adversity. Vedepo was never given strong enough odds to merit a play, and Sakara has too much variability to be worth the risk when he’s the favorite.
The Road Ahead
Moving forward, I see a lot of opportunities just over the horizon. I currently have two open bets, both of which I will break down further prior to their respective events.
1u on Rob McCullough to defeat Donald Cerrone at even odds. I just think Rob is much more experienced and a good style matchup with his counter-wrestling and knockout power. This bet was placed prior to the moving of the WEC event, but remains open for the rescheduled event.
1u on Jacare to defeat Zelg Galesic at -345. The odds here are not particularly favorable, but I feel that Zelg is simply out of luck in this fight and almost no threat to Jacare.
Public Bet History
General Public Prediction Record
September 17, 2008
UFC Fight Night - Diaz vs Neer
UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs. Neer, also referred to as Ultimate Fight Night 15, was held by the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) on September 17, 2008 at the Omaha Civic Auditorium in Omaha, Nebraska.
The event was the lead-in to The Ultimate Fighter: Team Nogueira vs. Team Mir on Spike TV. UFN 15 Picks and Predictions by N. Bailey
* This is Wilson Gouveia's debut at middleweight from light heavyweight.
| Match | Winner | Loser | Method | Round | Time |
| 1 | Dan Miller | Rob Kimmons | Submission (Rear-naked choke) | 1 | 1:27 |
| 2 | Mike Massenzio | Drew McFedries | Submission (Kimura) | 1 | 1:28 |
| 3 | Jason Brilz | Brad Morris | TKO (Punches) | 2 | 2:54 |
| 4 | Joe Lauzon | Kyle Bradley | TKO (Punches) | 2 | 1:34 |
| 5 | Wilson Gouveia | Ryan Jensen | Submission (Armbar) | 2 | 2:04 |
| 6 | Alessio Sakara | Joe Vedepo | KO (Head kick and punch) | 1 | 1:27 |
| 7 | Eric Schafer | Houston Alexander | Submission (Arm-triangle choke) | 1 | 4:53 |
| 8 | Alan Belcher | Ed Herman | Decision (Split) | 3 | 5:00 |
| 9 | Clay Guida | Mac Danzig | Decision (Unanimous) | 3 | 5:00 |
| 10 | Nathan Diaz | Josh Neer | Decision (Split) | 3 | 5:00 |
UFC Fight Night - Diaz vs Neer - 10. Nate Diaz vs. Josh Neer
Lightweight bout: Nate Diaz defeated Josh Neer via Decision (Split) (29-28, 28-29, and 29-28).
Nate Diaz and Josh Neer were each awarded a $30,000 fight of the night bonus.
UFC Fight Night - Diaz vs Neer - 9. Clay Guida vs. Mac Danzig
Lightweight bout: Clay Guida defeated Mac Danzig via Decision (Unanimous) (30-27, 29-28, and 29-28).
Read More......UFC Fight Night - Diaz vs Neer - 8. Alan Belcher vs. Ed Herman
Middleweight bout: Alan Belcher defeated Ed Herman via Decision (Split) (29-28, 28-29, and 29-28).
TPR Report
UFC Fight Night - Diaz vs Neer - 7. Eric Schafer vs. Houston Alexander
Light Heavyweight bout: Eric Schafer defeated Houston Alexander via Submission (Arm-triangle choke) at 4:53 round 1.
Read More......UFC Fight Night - Diaz vs Neer - 6. Alessio Sakara vs. Joe Vedepo
Middleweight bout: Alessio Sakara defeated Joe Vedepo via KO (Head kick and punch) at 1:27 of round 1.
Alessio Sakara was awarded a $30,000 knockout of the night bonus.
UFC Fight Night - Diaz vs Neer - 5. Wilson Gouveia vs. Ryan Jensen
Middleweight bout: Wilson Gouveia defeated Ryan Jensen via Submission (Armbar) at 2:04 of round 2.
Wilson Gouveia was awarded a $30,000 submission of the night bonus.
UFC Fight Night - Diaz vs Neer - 4. Joe Lauzon vs. Kyle Bradley
Lightweight bout: Joe Lauzon defeated Kyle Bradley via TKO (Punches) at 1:34 of round 2.
Read More......UFC Fight Night - Diaz vs Neer - 3. Jason Brilz vs. Brad Morris
Light heavyweight bout: Jason Brilz defeated Brad Morris via TKO (Punches) at 2:54 of round 2.
Read More......UFC Fight Night - Diaz vs Neer - 2. Mike Massenzio vs. Drew McFedries
Middleweight bout: Mike Massenzio defeated Drew McFedries via Submission (Kimura) at 1:28 of roudn 1.
Read More......UFC Fight Night - Diaz vs Neer - 1. Dan Miller vs. Rob Kimmons
Middleweight bout: Dan Miller defeated Rob Kimmons via Submission (Rear-naked choke) at 1:27 of round 1.
Read More......UFC Fight Night - Diaz vs Neer (Predictions)
Click the stars to rate how good you think it will be. Click here for the official line-up.
UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs. Neer, also referred to as Ultimate Fight Night 15, is to be held by the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) on September 17, 2008 at the Omaha Civic Auditorium in Omaha, Nebraska.
The event will be a lead-in to The Ultimate Fighter: Team Nogueira vs. Team Mir on Spike TV. UFN 15 Picks and Predictions by N. Bailey
Main Card:
Nathan Diaz (155) vs. Josh Neer (155)
Mac Danzig (155) vs. Clay Guida (155)
Ed Herman (185) vs. Alan Belcher (185)
Houston Alexander (205) vs. Eric Schafer (205)
Undercard:
Wilson Gouveia (185) vs. Ryan Jensen (185)
Joe Lauzon (155) vs. Kyle Bradley (155)
Dan Miller (185) vs. Rob Kimmons (185)
Drew McFedries (185) vs. Mike Massenzio (185)
Jason Brilz (205) vs. Brad Morris (205)
Alessio Sakara (185) vs. Joe Vedepo (185)
September 16, 2008
UFN 15 Picks and Predictions
By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)
Ultimate Fight Night 15 really is an ugly duckling of an event; the bulk of the card is fighters that have stumbled in their initial steps into the Octagon fighting against unheralded prospects that may make a big splash or may never be heard from again after sacrificing themselves to rehabilitate their opponent's careers.
While few of the matches are of immediate divisional importance, the presence of so many newcomers on the card mean that the night could be found to be massively important a year from now, as someone that breaks out here makes their mark on the division.
Strangely from a betting perspective, almost no lines have been released for the card yet, which is unusual. I will update this post with analysis of the lines when they are released. I expect that some fighters may be undervalued (Houston Alexander) due to recent losses to top competition, and some may be undervalued because they have no name value, despite presenting dangerous style matchups for their opponents.
Nate Diaz (-205) vs. Josh Neer (+165)
Josh Neer came to the UFC at 170 pounds on a massive win streak, and promptly lost several times, most recently back-to-back losses to Journeyman Josh Burkman and marijuana aficionado Nick Diaz. However, Neer took the opportunity to re-work himself, recover his impressive form (aside from the blip of a sub-one-minute KO loss from eating a massive haymaker) and find a new home at 155, where he is one of the bigger and more physically dominant fighters. Neer also improved his standup quite a bit, looking very sharp on the feet against Din Thomas, a talented and elusive boxer himself. Neer especially showed strong leg kicks in that fight, which, if used against Diaz, might take some of the agility and strength of out his rubber band legs.
Nate Diaz is physically weak, but impossible to control, and can always threaten with submissions from any position. Diaz does tend to bleed, so Neer's aggressive ground and pound and slicing elbows could cut him up. However, that same aggression on the ground could open him up to a sudden Diaz sub attempt. Diaz has competent striking, and unlike his brother doesn't seem to be moving in slow motion, but, like his brother, he doesn't have a lot of KO power. His tendency to try to dirty box or grab his opponent's head and hockey-fight will hurt him, since Neer has excellent uppercuts on the inside in the clinch. Neer also has good sub defense (although Diaz can submit anyone) and uses GnP to punish sub attempts, which could quickly wear down Diaz
I'm expecting a tense, competitive fight, with Neer physically dominating the fight, but Diaz remaining a threat because of his technical ability. Neer will beat Nate up on the feet and on the ground, until the damage accumulates and the fight is stopped either for a cut or a TKO with Diaz a bloody mess either way. While I feel that's the most likely outcome, it would of course be no shock for Diaz to find a submission. Josh Neer by TKO (cut)
While I like Neer at +165, I am holding off in expectation of the line moving further against him, as many will only remember his poor UFC performances, especially given that there were technical issues with the distribution of his unaired preliminary fight against Thomas meaning fewer people than normal will have seen it.
Edit: Neer is now up to +180 at my book, and I have placed a unit on him and think everyone else who believes in Neer should do the same.
Mac Danzig vs. Clay Guida
Mac is one of the most well rounded fighters you can ask for. Guida is limited, but has evolved his game around his strengths to the point where he is a tough challenge for most fighters in the division. Danzig should have an advantage standing, where Guida mostly relies on his speed, workrate, and the threat of the takedown. Danzig doesn't have a lot of power in his hands, and Guida has a good chin, but Danzig throws heavy kicks and knees, so he could beat Guida up there.
For someone that relies entirely on his wrestling, Guida doesn't have that dominant a takedown/control game. He usually gets his takedowns through speed and persistence. Danzig has the skills to stop his shots and outpoint him on the feet. Furthermore, Guida has been vulnerable to submissions in the past, tapping out for most of his losses, and Danzig has a strong submission game. Guida's weakest area is when his opponents have been able to reverse a takedown attempt or sweep him, and put him on his back. Danzig has the wrestling, the strength, and the jiu-jitsu to find ways to put Guida there and rough him up, although Guida will work out of it.
In short, Danzig is well rounded enough to deal with the extreme hustle game that Guida brings to the table. Mac will outpoint him in most areas and escape from the inevitable bad positions, winning a close 3 round decision. Mac Danzig by decision.
Houston Alexander vs. Eric Schafer
This is an interesting style vs. style fight. Alexander can bang and is very strong, but due to the very short duration of all his fights (combined time across his 2-2 record in the UFC is under 6 minutes) there are a lot of questions about him, especially his ground game. While Houston is athletic and very very strong, in the few instances where he's attempted a takedown or tried to stop one, he's simply tried to power through his opponent. If Houston gets dragged down and ends up on his back, I have no reason to believe his jiu-jitsu has improved enough to get out from under Schafer or avoid the submission. Houston wins this fight if he can force a standup fight or land a bomb from Schafer's guard.
Schafer has recently been Zuffa's go-to guy when they need a struggling 'name' fighter to get a win (Bisping, Bonnar). He's a solid jiu-jitsu guy with poor standup and mediocre to poor wrestling. When he wants a takedown Schafer basically just bends over at then waist and runs at his opponent's legs, and he has a bad habit of leaning over when he's trying to slip or duck punches, leaving himself exposed to having his ears boxed. Houston's skill set means he could catch Schafer leaning with a knee or uppercut, which could quickly end Eric's night. Schafer reacts badly to GnP and has gassed in his previous UFC fights. He loses if he can't drag the fight to the ground and control Alexander once they're on the ground, as Houston will simply try to explode back to his feet (although he won't have the technique needed to regain guard from being mounted, etc). Schafer's most dangerous submission is his arm triangle, but he'll take a standing guillotine if Houston clinches with him.
This is a close fight. Either fighter could win if the other slips up and ends up exposed and in the other's world. However, given Schafer's inability to take punishment and Houston's extreme ability to mete it out, I expect Houston to be able to catch him and win via TKO. Houston Alexander KO round 1.
For betting I like Schafer at +170 or better and Houston at -150 or better.
Alan Belcher vs. Ed Herman
Belcher is too crisp on the feet for Herman to be happy there, especially given how slow his punches are. Belcher has some problems on the ground, having been utterly lost in rubber guard, but I expect he'll be able to avoid the submission game of Herman, and use distance to assist in staying on his feet.
If Belcher truly cannot fight on the ground, then Herman will take the decision easily, but if Belcher can fight intelligently, use his striking to keep his distance and force Herman to shoot from far outside, enabling Belcher to stuff the attempts, then Alan should be able to exploit the openings in Herman's standup for the victory, although I advise staying away from betting on this fight because I feel it's very difficult to handicap. In short, I simply don't know the answer on this fight, but I must make an official prediction, so I predict Belcher will win. Alan Belcher by decision.
Kyle Bradley vs. Joe Lauzon
Bradley is a good size for 155, and Lauzon is pretty small. While primarily a boxer, Bradley does have a brown belt in jiu-jitsu under Rich Clementi, so may not be totally lost on the ground. If Lauzon can't muscle a takedown, he'll be in trouble. Lauzon is another fighter that is much worse off his back than any other position on the ground, so if he gets clipped and has to hang on from his guard, he'll be in trouble. Lauzon still has the skills to take him down, control him, and beat him, but if Bradley can weather the initial storm, he has a good chance of winning the fight—Lauzon usually relies on simply overwhelming his opponent, and struggles when they don't fold under the pressure, so this fight will be closer than many think. Despite the uncertainty, my official pick has got to be Lauzon by TKO ground and pound early, simply because I haven't seen enough of Bradley and he is coming from a boxing background. Lauzon TKO round 1.
Wilson Gouveia vs. Ryan Jensen
On paper, Gouveia should be able to walk away with this one with a dominant KO performance. However, I'm not sure about Wilson's mental game, as he's lost several fights he should have won, and he's historically fought in ways that minimized his advantages over his opponents, notably avoiding the ground game with Goran Reljic, where Gouveia was easily controlling the fight. Stay far away from betting on this fight at anything close to reasonable odds. While it's a strong possibility Gouveia forgets how talented he is and gives this fight away (getting caught in a stupid submission or the like) my official prediciton is that he KO's his opponent in the second round. Gouveia KO round 2.
PRELIMINARY CARD
Drew McFedries vs. Mike Massenzio
McFedries is an absolute terror on the feet. His punching power is terrifying and he is as vicious and relaxed as a shark. However, Massenzio is a good wrestler, so McFedries will most likely have to fight off his back, where Martin Kampmann quickly submitted him. Massenzio has a basic wrestler's compliment of submissions, but likely won't have the ability to finish McFedries unless he gasses or gets roughed up badly by GnP. McFedries can be knocked out, but Massenzio doesn't have the striking to do it. McFedries path to victory is a simple one: knock out Mike. Massenzio has a rockier road ahead of him; he must find a way to get past McFedries' hands and to his legs, take him down, and rough him up or control him. While Drew isn't a standout wrestler, it's hard to think he hasn't picked up any wrestling training at MFS. He might be able to fend off Massenzio long enough to put him down in the first few minutes. Failing that, Massenzio may be able to catch Drew gassing. My official prediction is Drew McFedries, but for betting purposes remember that Massenzio is a live dog because of the style matchup. Drew McFedries KO round 1.
Jason Brilz vs. Brad Morris
Two fighters I know very little about. This is a step up in competition for both men. Morris was helpless against Cain Velasquez, but Cain is a future star. Brilz has a much more impressive record, so I have to go with him. Brilz via decision.
Rob Kimmons vs. Dan Miller
Two more fighters I'm very unsure on. Miller is likely better on the feet and a slightly better wrestler, but Kimmons has such an aggressive and fluid ground game that I think he will find a way to submit him. Kimmons submission round 2.
Alessio Sakara vs. Joe Vedepo
Vedepo is an unknown, but he has real KO power and Sakara has a bad chin. Sakara has great handspeed and boxing, but he doesn't have a lot of one-shot stopping power, and tends to get hit by more shots than he can take. Sometimes it seems like he's using a pure boxing style looking to accumulate punches when he should be trying to land hard and do damage. While Sakara has the skills to land in exchanges and win the fight, I expect he will eat a big shot and quit, yet again. Vedepo by KO round 1.
My Plays:
1u on Josh Neer at +180
1u on Mac Danzig at +145
1u on Eric Shafer at +185
.3u on Kyle Bradley at +500
Public Bet History
General Public Prediction Record
September 15, 2008
Strikeforce "Young Guns"
By Steven M. Ledbetter (SMLedbetter@mmaratings.net)
When you get involved in any sport, it would make sense that the first impression of that sport is going to come from its highest profile events. I'm sure when we are young we think that every football game is going to look like the NFL. But it is not very long before we realize that that every pool does not look like the one Michael Phelps broke all those world records in. It was at Civic Auditorium in San Jose that I realized not every professional fight is DREAM.
I have been to one other event, in San Jose no less. I went to the very well produced "Strikeforce Melendez vs. Thompson" event in June, and it was one of the reasons that I started doing the sport myself. So this weekend I wanted to introduce my father to the sport, and to cheer on a member of my gym who was to be fight #9 on the ìYoung Guns IIIî card. My father had never seen a fight (any fight, not even boxing), so I thought this would be a good event for him to see. Fighters with less experience tend to be more aggressive, their tactics are usually less subtle, and I thought this combination would prove to be more palatable for the novice viewer like my Dad, who bores easily. Of course, I had no idea that the promoters of inexperienced fighters also share the same faults.
I can imagine the mental state of young fighters to be a fairly unique mess. Someone with only a few fights on his or her record can't afford win ratios below 50%; they'll never get on another card. An inexperienced promoter is going to be in the same boat. Smaller promotions need to make enough cash at the door to cover their expenses and set them up for the next event, unlike larger promotions which can float a failure on credit. A young fighter might pick the wrong corner man, much like a promoter who picks an announcer who declares wins by "reverse naked chokeî. And I know that every person who has taken more than a single Muay Thai or Jiu-Jitsu class has thought about what song they would enter the ring to, but I bet they wouldn't expect it to be played by a DJ set up on card tables.
Young Guns III suffered these problems, but all of them are forgivable if there is action in the ring. Without question, Young Guns delivered some great fights. Predictably aggressive, the young fighters provided a great showcase for the various kinds of matchups that the MMA world enjoys. There were two submission victories, a technical knockout, and 4 decisions. There was even a 265-pound matchup that ended in 19 seconds with a floor-shaking knockout. My father was impressed by the various styles and got to see a good mix of standup fighters, ground and pound, with a lot of great jiu-jitsu (which he liked best). But after 8 match-ups, we were excited to see my friend fight next, only to be confused by an impromptu intermission.
ìLadies and Gentlemen, we are going to take a 10 minute intermission to repair some damage to the cage door." My friend could see the ring from when he heard that announcement. "Stay warm. Kick some bags. You're up as soon as we get this fixed," the promoter told him as the crew scrambled to find people to fix the cage Strikeforce had rented from another promotion, WarGods. My friend and his team also had to scramble to get back to the warm up area, but were at a loss on how hard to push. It could be another 10 minutes, or 30óthere was no way to prepare. The number of confused fighters in the back began to grow as more people crowded around the cage door to offer advice on its repair or to just figure out if anything was going to happen. I'm sure no one liked the idea of canceling the rest of the card, but it had to be pretty obvious pretty quickly that the requisite skills to fix that rented cage were not in Civic Auditorium that Saturday night. As it turns out, the audience found out before the fighters did.
"Yeah, we heard the announcer guy talking and people booing, and it took a second to register," the fighter and his coaches told me. The announcer told me that our stubs would be good for the next Young Guns show. We were bummed, but my Dad and I got 8 great fights, out of 13ó61% of our ticket value. That, it turns out, is a better deal than the preempted fighters or the promoter. "He paid us 20% and told us that he would put on a fight just for us in 3 or 4 weeks that all of the original ticket holders would get to see free, but that doesn't make sense. He'll lose $15,000 on that show."
The world of professional fighting is a stranger place than the one I knew before Young Guns III. Or rather, my perception of that world is clearer. Every sport has its fringes, but those are also the entry point for all the great talent we end up seeing on Pay-Per-View. It's a little bit wild out there, but that's because there is more risk in doing anything you aren't experienced at yet. The same is true for promoters, but you have to wonder what the likelihood is that this one will get a second fight, especially at those odds.
Welcome Steven M. Ledbetter!
I’m happy to welcome Steven M. Ledbetter as a contributor to MMA Ratings.
Steven discovered the MMA world merely 6 months ago but makes up for his neophyte status with zeal. As Steve “O Burro” Ledbetter, he has lost over 40lbs since March by training Muay Thai under Bunkerd Faphimai 3 times a week, Jiu-jitsu under Alex Ferreira 3 times a week, and MMA under Luke Stewart and Darren Uyenoyama twice a week on top of a regular conditioning schedule and a little old-school wrestling under James Haddon. He will be adding a variety of content from the point of view of a novice fighter who’s still shocked they let him do this stuff to people. If you want to read more by Steven, check out the unbridled fury of awesomeness that is- People I'd Like to See on Fire.
Make sure you subscribe to updates so you can read what all this MMA stuff is like for a guy trying to do actually do it.
So stay tuned and let him know what you think. You can comment on his posts, send him an email, and be sure to rate his writing using the rating stars.
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September 11, 2008
Why Not Iceman vs. Ace?
By Garth Hansen (garthhansen@mmaratings.net) with contributions from Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)
As the aftershocks from Evan Tanner's passing begin to quiet a little, I got back to reading and thinking on the light heavies. UFC 88 changed the division in some truly stunning ways. One of the monsters of the LHWs is looking a lot more human and a lot older. A former denizen of the weight class returned with a resounding win over a young, inexperienced opponent. At 205, there's an intriguing matchup that presented itself when all was said and done: Chuck Liddell vs. Rich Franklin. While making a fight like this happen carries risk for the UFC, it also offers rewards, for the fighters, the organization, and the fans.
While little in Chuck Liddell's game has changed over the years, the league seems to have caught up with him. Rashad Evans is not a better striker than Liddell. He just had an opening he was looking for, and his focus and handspeed allowed him to charge through it. Even with a loss, Chuck Liddell is relevant. His dominance as champion was legendary, inspiring legions of fans as well as arguably making Liddell the face of the UFC, if not MMA as a whole. Going 1-3 in boxing is a career killer, but in MMA it's a bump in the road. Plenty of world-class fighters have significant losses, partly due to the smaller pool of talent and the fact that older, more experienced fighters get matched up with younger fighters. Liddell has the history and skill set to match up with most anyone out there. He has a long road to get back into title contention, however…perhaps impossibly long.
Rich Franklin is also interested in contending for the 205 belt. After a strong run as middleweight champ, he ran into a cold, hard wall named Anderson Silva, and is now looking for a shot at his old weight. At UFC 88, Rich tore Matt Hamill apart, showing the great, dynamic striking we've come to expect from “Ace”. His kicks were brutal and snapping, and he threw extremely fast and effective combos while moving easily around the cage. Hamill looked terrible, to be sure...but how much was Franklin making Hamill look terrible? A few leg kicks from Franklin will make anyone want to give up.
So here we have a tested champion on the ropes, his career seemingly on the down slope, having won only 1 of his previous 3 fights. There's another tested champion, denied his former place, moving into new territory. Both will stand in the pocket and trade. Both are tremendous PPV draws, as well as media-friendly. If Chuck wins, he gets one leg out of the grave he's hopped in over his last four bouts. If Franklin wins, he adds a bold headline to his contender's resume. Both could count on a massive payday. Perhaps a showdown with the winner (if the fight materializes) of Lyoto Machida and Shogun Rua.
Objections can be raised to the scenario. Chuck is near the end of his career. Should he be fighting contenders, or should the UFC be attempting to set up “superfights” against long-time rivals (or, its been rumored, heavyweight rivals)? Liddell wants to contend for the belt. He’s always been clear in that regard. Setting up Liddell in squash matches doesn’t work…he doesn’t seem to care, and delivers lackluster performances, seemingly impatient to be done with the non-title fights (the Silva brawl was a major exception). A win over Franklin would catapult Chuck back up the rankings, at least into a number one contender shot at some point next year, knowing Dana White. That’s what Chuck wants, and if the fight is framed that way he’ll fight anyone on earth.
In Rich’s camp there may be objections as well. Should Rich Franklin be fighting a fading former champion, or other contenders (Thiago Silva, Lyoto Machida, etc), or even fighting for the title? There is precedent for giving recent belt-holders fast title shots (Henderson, Couture, etc). A Franklin fight against the winner of Forrest Griffin vs. Rashad Evans would get one of the UFC’s poster boys onto the top of a PPV card. Of course that’s predicated on Rich winning.
Overall a fight pitting Rich Franklin versus Chuck Liddell would be a winner for the UFC. Fan interest in seeing to legends match up would be huge. Add in legitimate title implications and the fact that neither star’s glow would fade dramatically, and you end up with a great main event in the making. Of course the people who would really come out on top would be the fans.
September 9, 2008
In Memory Of Evan Tanner
By Garth Hansen (garthhansen@mmaratings.net)
Evan Tanner died in the California desert in the last few days. He left for the desert after making some blog posts, and joking about how seriously the internet pundits took his latest adventure. "It's no 'Into the Wild' thing" he scoffed. And yet a very simple miscalculation cost him his life. The world lost a special person when he succumbed to the heat and dehydration of the unforgiving desert.
Evan's performance in UFC 51 cemented my love of MMA, and made a hardcore fan out of someone who'd been watching the sport for a few weeks. I don't say that just out of respect...his destruction, seemingly on nothing but willpower, of David Terrell branded the sport into my consciousness. His pure elation upon victory brought tears to my eyes, like his death does tonight.
Evan Tanner wasn't perfect by any means. He had demons, booze among them. He walked up to the edge of killing himself with alcohol, and walked away from it. That's not something to be proud of, that walk, but the turn away is difficult, and admirable in its own way. Nearly killing yourself with liquor is nothing heroic.
To me Evan Tanner was a magic name, that stood for a man doing his own thing, and taking the consequences, whatever they may be. That may seem simple, but I didn't have a father figure growing up. I had to find, and still have to find, men who represent what I want to be, who I want to be. Evan wasn't everything I hope to be in this life, but his spirit was one I hope I can capture a tenth of, emulate a tiny bit. Looking into the face of existence, and laughing...that's what I take from this. That big, open laugh you got to see on Tanner's face, exulting in being alive.
May we all exult so in our lives.
**More:
Kid Nate has a great piece up on Bloody Elbow, and he included the video below. He also mentioned something that I'd thought of but failed to mention, and it deserves mention: Evan was an innovator in the sport. His elbow work and combination of the muay thai clinch, American wrestling, and dirty boxing made a template that permanently changed MMA. While his last forays into the cage didn't result in victories, they were, without a doubt, successful. Success is how you live, win or lose.
September 8, 2008
Post UFC 88 Notes
By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)
I have certainly gotten off to an ignominious start with my Public Bet History (-1.52 units so far) and General Public Prediction Record (4-5 or 44.44%). However, that means there's lots to learn. It's important to go back over ones betting decisions (not just sides taken, but fights passed over, and amounts wagered) if one seriously wants to make money wagering on MMA.
Overall this event had everything one could want from an MMA event - some impressive knockouts, some submissions, some wars, lots of divisionally important fights, stars being born, established fighters reminding the world why they are established, and at least one major shakeup. Toss in a side of the music from Conan, courtesy of Tim Boetsch, and you have a success.
Rashad Evans vs. Chuck Liddell
Well, this was a bit of a shocker. I don't think this is a case of Chuck getting old or being past it. He looked exactly the same as he has in every fight for the past several years. Chuck is like one of those moths with the 12 inch long tongue that can only drink from a certain type of flower. He's very specialized, but he's great at what he does. He circles, he protects his bubble of personal space, not allowing anyone to touch him, and he keeps his eyes wide open to target his big punches. It's not like Wanderlei Silva or Randy Couture didn't know this going in. He still beat them.
Rashad made Chuck chase him, and the ice in Chuck's veins seemed to melt, as he got angry and chased Rashad around a bit and stretched too far with his strikes. Before the final big shot, Rashad threw several big overhand counter rights that whiffed or slapped Chuck's shoulder, so really Chuck has no excuse for getting caught with that. He should have seen it after the third time Rashad responded to an attack with that. Still, with Chuck's power, I expect he has a few more big knockout wins ahead of him.
Rashad is very fast and explosive, but I don't think he's going to become the standup king of the LHW division anytime soon. Chuck has long been very hittable for a counter fighter, relying on the combination of his excellent chin and phenomenal power to let him win any exchange (to his detriment against Rampage and Guy Mezger, although he eventually won that last fight). Rashad is difficult to get a hold of, but he also has a hilariously poor workrate (check out his FightMetric performance rating) he just has a real gift for making sure the other guy can't get anything done either. I think he will continue to have flashes of brilliance where all the pieces come together and he channels all of his considerable power and speed into a single strike, slam, or takedown, but don't expect it to be a regular thing.
I think that my call not to bet on either side was correct, if conservative. There are a lot of unknowns when a fighter is on a losing streak. They may never perform up to spec again, or they may bounce right back. Avoid getting involved with a bet on a Chuck Liddell fight (on either side) for the foreseable future. One force many bettors (including myself) may be consistently underrating or ignoring is that in modern MMA, with modern trainers and training camps, fighters can improve previously weak aspects of their fight games immensely. Rashad may have had to get in a slugfest with Brad Imes and been outpointed by Tito's generally impotent standup, but here he was able to stick and move on one of the best counterfighters in the division. This sort of quantum leap in performance should be remembered going forward.
Rich Franklin vs. Matt Hamill
Hamill looked awful in this fight. It's always worrisome when a fighter sticks so stubbornly to an obviously losing gameplan. Maybe the armbar scared him, maybe he didn't really have his heart set on beating Rich. Either way, he showed, the hard way, that he has a great chin and will to fight . Rich looked very good at the weight and might see a temporary resurgence in his fortunes in the UFC.
Betting-wise, this was a good pick to go heavy on. I felt like I had a very good handle on the fight, and it went exactly the way I expected it to. If only they could all go that way for me.
Dan Henderson vs. Rousimar “Toquinho” Palhares
This was an impressive fight from Hendo. This was the most controlled he's ever been and the most intelligently he's fought. He might be old and have been fighting even before MMA's 'golden age', but he's aged like a fine whiskey. It has more depth than ever before, as well as quality seasoning, and of course the 100-proof right hand.
Palhares also looked good, as expected. He showed a good chin, and a strong fighting spirit (although he gassed and his butt-flops at the end of the third round were sad). Still, he managed to find ways to drag Henderson to the mat, and found openings to threaten several times. His striking needs enormous amounts of work, and he sets up his takedowns with strikes like he's drilling it and bored. It's very mechanical and predictable. Fortunately he seems agile for such a stump of a man, and maybe those crazy ninja kicks will serve him in good stead if he sharpens up his striking.
Betting-wise, I think I made the right call in laying off the fight. Henderson was a terrible stylistic matchup for Palhares, but the newcomer still found ways to threaten, as I expected. If he'd gotten a little deeper on one of those leglocks, Henderson might have been on crutches. I'm going to subjectively score this as a "win" in terms of predicting the fight (the 'SPA' column in my predictions), as it played out much the way I expected. If you don't like that, just ignore that column and go purely by my non-subjective win/loss record. I've included the subjective column so I can self-score how well I am doing in handicapping fights. If you're a bettor, I suggest you do the same. One shouldn't be too results-focused, especially as a bettor. For example, if you placed money on Kevin Burns as the underdog to Anthony Johnson, thinking perhap Burns could expose Johnson's ground game and find a submission, Burns' eye-poke-tko victory does not indicate you accurately predicted the fight.
Martin Kampmann vs. Nate Marquardt
While it appears that this loss will send Kampmann down to welterweight, I think Marquardt's weight had very little to do with it. Within a reasonable range, anyone of any weight headkicking you is going to mess your day up. I'm impressed that Kampmann didn't get starched by that shot or the many follow-ups, instead just collapsing under the punishment. The guy must have a great chin (which will sadly be useless to him as he faces the nightmare progression of top-position grapplers that is the UFC's 170 lb class). Marquardt's boxing looked very sharp, which doesn't say a whole lot given he was basically working a punching bag after that kick. Still, his 'seasoned veteran' status really showed in the way he intelligently picked his shots and dilligently worked his way to the finish, rather than just going buck and hoping to knock off Kampmann's head through his guard. As he said in his post-fight interview, he remained calm and focused on landing accurately. If Marquardt can keep improving at this rate and maintain his incredible physical condition without injuring himself, I suspect he'll be fighting for the title again in short order. If the matchup happens, I think he can take Henderson. Kampmann has much more to offer than he showed in this fight. I hope he doesn't become a wasted talent spending his entire career at 170 on his back getting roughed up by the Jon Fitches and Josh Koschecks of the world.
Like the Rich Franklin fight, this was a case where I made a smart play and correctly wagered a large sum, because of the confidence I had in Nate, although I certainly didn't expect him to be able to crush the Dane like that.
Kurt Pellegrino vs. Thiago Tavares
Tavares has a lot of work to do before he lives up to the potential he has. Granted, he started this fight off on the back foot, getting his face caved in by the recently improved standup of Pellegrino. It might be hard to see at first, but coming back from that kind of beating to win a round and remain competitive really shows that Thiago is something special.
Kurt may really be a force to be reckoned with if this represents the level of his fight game in his future fights. He has a very good skill-set, although he's fighting in a division full of well-rounded incredibly talented guys.
As far as betting goes, I think staying away was the right call. I underestimated Kurt in my analysis, but I think it would have been unreasonable to expect this kind of a performance from him.
Tim "The Barbarian" Boetsch vs. Mike Patt
Boetsch has one of the most appropriate nicknames in the sport. This fight didn't go long enough to evaluate his stamina, but he looked in the best shape yet, and his punches landed, unlike the Hamill fight, where he connected about as often as Paul Konerko on a cold streak. We didn't really learn anything new about Tim here. When his punches land, he hurts people. Good to know the fight against Heath wasn't a fluke. Hopefully the UFC gives him smart matches, because he could be an awesome gatekeeper and fan favorite. I know I love him for his meat-and-potatoes fighting style. As for Patt... getting punched in the face and knocked down isn't really a good basis for analyzing his skills. Better luck next time, Matt.
While Boetsch made it look like he could beat 10 Mike Patts in a row, I think staying off this bet was the smart play, since they're both such unknown commodities.
Matt Brown vs. Dong Hyun "Stun Gun" Kim
The fight game is a funny one. Few people gave Brown any chance in this fight. I certainly didn't. Kim really did outclass him, too. Kim's flurry of attacks in the first round and Brown's inability to do anything other than survive showed why so many had so much faith in the Stun Gun. However, Dong's poor strategy (not setting up his punches or throwing combos, trying the same judo trip a billion times, trying to submit immediately instead of just punishing with elbows) gave Brown a chance to demonstrate the benefits of serious, professional, top-level MMA conditioning training, as he fought hard from bell to bell, while the technically superior Kim had to find ways to contain a more energetic opponent.
The decision was the right one; despite being fresher, Brown couldn't get anything done, and could only reasonably be given the second round. Staying off the fight, betting-wise, was still the right call. I think going forward Dong Hyun Kim will be undervalued as backlash for this performance, and Matt Brown will be overvalued because he's a fan favorite and people regard this fight as closer than it actually was because Brown was expected to just get hosed. Keep an eye on future lines involving these two.
Roan “Jucao” Carneiro vs. Ryo “Triumph United” Chonan
Jucao won this fight clearly. It was a close fight, but the correct scoring was obvious. Roan takes the first round, Ryo the second. The third round was close and had little action, but Roan obviously controlled the bulk of it. He spent more time in dominant positions and actualled advanced position, while Ryo, in the shorter amount of time he spent in dominant positions, could not advance position and was unable to effectively deal damage with ground and pound. Thus the third round should have gone to Roan.
Ryo looked much improved in this fight. His striking still looked solid if not overly powerful and threatening, but the big improvement was his grappling. For lack of a better word, Ryo has often looked wimpy on the ground or wrestling. His opponents have pushed him around and bullied him, which I expected the bigger Jucao to be able to do. Chonan has put on some muscle and developed his defensive wrestling. I still don't see him wearing a title belt, but he still has the tools to win fights or at least not get embarassed against top competition.
Jucao at least erased the blot of being triangled by Kevin Burns and giving up vs. Fitch by holding it together long enough to go to a decision without flaking out and giving up.
I think picking Carneiro at the odds I did was the right bet. He wasn't as dominant as I expected, but he was still able to perform in the fight in the manner I expected. I perhaps sized the bet too large, given the unknowns after the Kevin Burns fight, even if those worries didn't play out in the fight.
Jason Lambert vs. Jason MacDonald
Here's my biggest mistake of the night. Not only did I call the fight almost perfectly wrong, underestimating my fighter's opponent and overestimating my fighter, but I also make some bad mistakes in bet sizing.
I grossly overestimated Jason Lambert's wrestling. While the Rashad Evans fight should have made me very nervous about Lambert's ability to actually control fights, I had written it off as Rashad being a phenomenal wrestler. MacDonald's takedowns had previously appeared impotent, but in this fight he dictated where the fight took place very impressively.
While I still think that if Lambert had gotten on top and landed a few shots on MacDonald, he would have been able to beat him up for a finish, I overestimated Lambert's own toughness, since he seemed to be hurt pretty badly by the first clean shot or two MacDonald hit him with. I don't expect much from Lambert in the future, either. I think that what we saw in this fight is basically all he has to offer, regardless of weight division.
While MacDonald's aversion to getting hit and weak standup will prevent him from being a top-tier fighter, he has the skills, especially if he can keep putting his opponents on the mat, to keep racking up wins in the UFC over opponents like Lambert.
This fight really demonstrates the importance of being disciplined in your bankroll management. Yes, I predicted the fight woefully incorrectly. However, the damage this error did was greatly magnified by lack of discipline in my bet sizing. Despite expecting Lambert to win, I knew he was a flawed fighter and that MacDonald was a dangerous opponent. I was much more comfortable with my Franklin and Marquardt picks, yet, because I felt I was getting favorable odds here, this fight ended up being my largest bet of the night. While no man is made of stone, letting my excitement to see the line shift to +150 overrule prudence has undone the good work I did in handicapping the other fights of the night. So the lesson goes beyong never relying on Jason Lambert again-it's time for me to re-think how seriously I take risk management. Perhaps you can learn from my mistake.
September 6, 2008
UFC 88 - Breakthrough
UFC 88: Breakthrough was held by the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) on September 6, 2008 at the Philips Arena in Atlanta, Georgia. The event was headlined by a light heavyweight bout between Chuck Liddell and Rashad Evans. Post UFC 88 Notes by N. Bailey
The Least Wanted UFC Light Heavies by G. Hansen
* Jason MacDonald replaced Jason Day due to injury.
* This is Jason Lambert’s debut at middleweight, who was formally a light heavyweight.
* This is Rich Franklin's first fight at Light Heavyweight since 2005.
* Michael Patt replaced James Lee.
* A welterweight Bout between Karo Parisyan and Yoshiyuki Yoshida was pulled from the card due to a back injury by Parisyan.
| Match | Winner | Loser | Method | Round | Time |
| 1 | Ryo Chonan | Roan Carneiro | Decision (split) | 3 | 5:00 |
| 2 | Jason MacDonald | Jason Lambert | Submission (Rear-naked choke) | 2 | 1:20 |
| 3 | Tim Boetsch | Michael Patt | TKO (Punches) | 1 | 2:03 |
| 4 | Kurt Pellegrino | Thiago Tavares | Decision (Unanimous) | 3 | 5:00 |
| 5 | Dong Hyun Kim | Matt Brown | Decision (Split) | 3 | 5:00 |
| 6 | Nathan Marquardt | Martin Kampmann | TKO (Punches) | 1 | 1:22 |
| 7 | Dan Henderson | Rousimar Palhares | Decision (Unanimous) | 3 | 5:00 |
| 8 | Rich Franklin | Matt Hamill | TKO (Kick to the body) | 3 | 0:39 |
| 9 | Rashad Evans | Chuck Liddell | KO (Punch) | 2 | 1:51 |
UFC 88 - Breakthrough - 9. Rashad Evans vs. Chuck Liddell
Light Heavyweight Bout: Rashad Evans defeated Chuck Liddell via KO (punch) at 1:51 of round 2.
Rashad Evans was awarded a $60,000 knockout of the night bonus.
UFC 88 - Breakthrough - 8. Rich Franklin vs. Matt Hamill
Light Heavyweight Bout: Rich Franklin defeated Matt Hamill via TKO (Kick to the body) at 0:39 of round 3.
UFC 88 - Breakthrough - 7. Dan Henderson vs. Rousimar Palhares
Middeweight Bout: Dan Henderson defeated Rousimar Palhares via Decision (Unanimous) (30-27 x2, 29-28).
Read More......UFC 88 - Breakthrough - 6. Nathan Marquardt vs. Martin Kampmann
Middleweight Bout: Nate Marquardt defeated Martin Kampmann via TKO (Punches) at 1:22 of round 1.
Read More......UFC 88 - Breakthrough - 5. Dong Hyun Kim vs. Matt Brown
Welterweight Bout: Dong Hyun Kim defeated Matt Brown via Decision (Split) (29-28 x2, 28-29).
Read More......UFC 88 - Breakthrough - 4. Kurt Pellegrino vs. Thiago Tavares
Lightweight Bout: Kurt Pellegrino defeated Thiago Tavares via Decision (Unanimous) (29-27 x2, 29-28).
Kurt Pellegrino and Thiago Tavares were each awarded a $60,000 fight of the night bonus.
In the second round Thiago Tavares was caught in an armbar and tapped twice, however he then got out of the armbar before referee Yves Lavigne stopped the fight and the fight continued.
UFC 88 - Breakthrough - 3. Tim Boetsch vs. Michael Patt
Light Heavyweight Bout: Tim Boetsch defeated Mike Patt via TKO (Punches) at 2:03 of Round 1.
Read More......UFC 88 - Breakthrough - 2. Jason MacDonald vs. Jason Lambert
Middleweight Bout: Jason MacDonald defeated Jason Lambert via Submission (Rear-naked choke) at 1:20 of Round 2.
Jason MacDonald was awarded a $60,000 submission of the night bonus.
UFC 88 - Breakthrough - 1. Ryo Chonan vs. Roan Carneiro
Welterweight Bout: Ryo Chonan defeated Roan Carneiro via Decision (Split) (29-28 x2, 28-29).
Read More......UFC 88 - Breakthrough (Predictions)
Click the stars to rate how good you think it will be. Click here for the official line-up.
UFC 88: Breakthrough is to be held at the Phillips Arena in Atlanta, Georgia. The event will be headlined by a light heavyweight bout between Chuck Liddell and Rashad Evans. The Least Wanted UFC Light Heavies by G. Hansen
Main Card
Light Heavyweight Bout: Chuck Liddell (204) vs. Rashad Evans (205)
Light Heavyweight Bout: Rich Franklin (204.5)* vs. Matt Hamill (205)
Middeweight Bout: Dan Henderson (185) vs. Rousimar Palhares (184.5)
Middleweight Bout: Nate Marquardt (185) vs. Martin Kampmann (184.5)
Welterweight Bout: Matt Brown (170) vs. Dong Hyun Kim (170)
Preliminary Card:
Lightweight Bout: Thiago Tavares (155) vs. Kurt Pellegrino (156)
Middleweight Bout: Jason MacDonald* (185) vs. Jason Lambert (185)*
Light Heavyweight Bout: Tim Boetsch (205) vs. Michael Patt* (205)
Welterweight Bout: Roan Carneiro (170) vs. Ryo Chonan (170)
* Jason MacDonald replaced Jason Day due to injury.
* This is Jason Lambert’s debut at middleweight, who was formally a light heavyweight.
* This is Rich Franklin's first fight at Light Heavyweight since 2005.
* Michael Patt replaced James Lee.
* A welterweight Bout between Karo Parisyan and Yoshiyuki Yoshida was pulled from the card due to a back injury by Parisyan.
September 1, 2008
UFC 88 Picks and Predictions
By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)
Wagering on sporting events can be a great way to add a little excitement to your viewing, to find out whether or not you actually know what you're talking about when you analyze the sport, and to use all that time you spend on forums and websites to make a little money. However, gambling is also a great way to see incredible amounts of your money disappear with literally nothing to show for it. Gambling problems have ruined lives, relationships, and families. So bet with care.
Although it should go without saying, I take absolutely no responsibility for money you may lose based on following my picks and predictions. You are responsible for your own destiny. However, feel free to send me a portion of any money you may gain from my recommendations.
I make no claims of being an expert. I'm nothing more than a moderately successful amateur. If you think what I say is accurate, go ahead and wager alongside me. I will be keeping a public bet record alongside my public prediction record. My primary sportsbook is bookmaker.com, although I am looking to expand that for line shopping. I have no business relationship with any sportsbook (guys, call me).
For people just beginning to get interested in MMA wagering, a wonderful place to start is Performify's Guide. You're basically throwing money away if you don't read and understand the sections on value betting and bankroll management, no matter how good you are at predicting fights.
Another important resource is the wonderful tool for line shopping is BestFightOdds.
As always, feel free to leave comments, email me, or contact me on forums if you have any questions or comments.
Rashad Evans vs. Chuck Liddell
Not a lot to say about this match. Rashad can only win two ways. If Chuck has gotten old overnight, Rashad will get the takedowns and beat him up. Failing that, if Rashad has improvd dramatically, he'll outwork and simply out-hustle Chuck (who has a terrible workrate), using head movement and unpredictable attacks to avoid getting knocked out, edging him out for a close decision. Rashad doesn't have a lot to offer standing up, he won't be able to take down Chuck with regularity, and he has limited gas. If Rashad doesn't come at Chuck aggressively, he'll simply let the fight slip away from him and get roughed up a little. If Rashad does try to dominate the fight, he'll eat a big shot and go to sleep.
Chuck Liddell by KO, round 2.
The odds for this fight are currently:
-285 Chuck Liddell
+225 Rashad Evans
Chuck is too old and has lost too much recently for me to like him at those odds. However, Rashad is so limited and such a poor style matchup in this fight that I wouldn't be comfortable with money on him either.
Rich Franklin vs. Matt Hamill
First of all, I don't expect Rich to suffer too much from blowing up to 205. He's always been a very large, powerful guy, and with the amount of time he's had to prepare for this fight, I expect him to look about the same size as Matt.
Hamill's standup gets a lot of credit because he roughed up Michael Bisping on the feet. I don't think he can repeat that feat here, for several reasons. First of all, Hamill simply physically overwhelmed Bisping, from his punching power to just his driving takedowns. Secondly, Bisping, while a talented striker, does not have big one-shot KO power. Bisping is the kind of fighter that chips away and accumulates damage through strikes and flurries. This means that someone as big and powerful as Hamill can wade through his shots in order to slug it out and land big punches. Granted, this isn't a foolproof strategy, as Tim Boetsch found out—you have to land those punches. Boetsch simply did not connect on his power shots, whereas Bisping was able to work a good jab and connect with it regularly, but had to back off and couldn't follow it up with harder shots, because Hamill would always be wading in with hammers.
Rich, while not gifted with the finesse and technical acumen of Anderson Silva, has undeniable power in his strikes and the accuracy to make most of them count. Hamill is simply too easy of a target to win standup exchanges with the former champ, and is in for a severe beating on the feet. While Hamill is the better wrestler, Franklin's striking will make it hard for him to set up his takedowns within a reasonable distance, and Franklin is a good enough wrestler to stop desperate shots from way outside. Even if Hamill should drag Rich down with brute strength, Franklin is a far superior submission fighter, and could threaten from his back and otherwise restrict Hamill's ability to mete out punishment. The only way for Hamill to win is to control the fight for all three rounds. Franklin could possibly submit him, could outpoint him on the feet for a decision, or could wear him down and knock him out. Hamill's gas has been a problem in the past, and Franklin's conditioning is never in question. This is a big advantage to Franklin, given that Hamill is going to have to blow out large amounts of energy every time he takes Rich down and every time he has to control him. I expect Franklin to beat Matt up, until Hamill is finally so gassed and beaten he has nothing left, at which point Rich will finish him off.
Rich Franklin by TKO, round 3.
The current odds on this fight are:
-255 Rich Franklin
+205 Matt Hamill
I was able to get on Rich at -225, which I felt was favorable enough to merit a large play. -255 is marginal, but still merits a small play.
Karo Parisyan vs. Yoshiyuki “Zenko” Yoshida
Like the Henderson vs. Toquinho fight, this matchup pits a veteran fighter who is a “known commodity” against a talented foreign import. Will Karo bounce back from his emasculating defeat by Thiago Alves, or will he continue to slide into irrelevance? Prior to that loss, Karo coasted to three decision wins almost entirely through his improved, but still unspectacular striking skills.
In the UFC, Karo's weakness has always been that he's not a strong finisher (in fact he's only stopped one opponent in his UFC career). The fact that he doesn't really beat his opponents up badly or make strong submission threats means that his opponents have a full three rounds to fight Karo and find a way to get ahead of him. Karo is very durable though, so most of his fights turn into wars.
Karo's greatest skill, his judo, has appeared much less dominant in his recent fights. Gone are the high-amplitude throws spiking opponents onto their heads whenever Karo gets hooks, replaced with occasional trips that lead to tepid ground and pound from the guard. Despite all his shortcomings, Karo remains a stern test because of his aggression and toughness. He's the kind of fighter than can break a man's will, staying in his face until he folds under the pressure.
Zenko is a 'hybrid' Judoka who, unusually for a Japanese fighter, has lots of experience fighting in a cage and throwing elbows (in GCM's Cage Force). He's truly an all-rounder, with good standup, excellent ground and pound, and good submission offense as well. For a Judo player, he seems to end up on his back more than he should, but he has a good ability to scramble or threaten with submissions, restricting the amount of damage he takes. Furthermore, he has the power and aggression in his striking on the feet and on the ground to finish fights, a lethal combination when you have the judo skills to put your opponents in bad positions.
Zenko is a good deal taller than Karo, and throws cleaner, straighter punches, so I expect him to be able to out-point Karo there and keep his distance. Zenko's judo will largely nullify Karo's takedown attempts, but if Karo really commits and drives hard, I think he'll be able to get a few takedowns. Karo's biggest problem is an inability to secure control once he's completed a takedown. On the ground, I think Karo will be too busy trying to keep Yoshida from getting up and defending Yoshida's submissions to land any significant blows and accumulate damage. Should the positions be reversed, I think Yoshida's top-game offense will be good enough to beat Karo up and keep him in a defensive mindset, wearing him down for a decision.
This is simply a bad style matchup for Karo—he's facing a fighter that is equally talented in his specialty, yet slightly more well-rounded and more physically gifted. It's a very close fight, but I think Yoshida will edge out a decision.
Yoshiyuki Yoshida by decision, 29-28.
The currently available odds for this fight are:
+190 Yoshiyuki Yoshida
-240 Karo Parisyan
Since this is a close, 50/50 fight, I think Yoshida is obviously a good play here. Stay far away from Karo at -240. Especially given his recently developed pre-fight nerves and panic attacks I was able to get on Yoshida at +225 when the lines opened.
Dan Henderson vs. Rousimar “Toquinho” Palhares
This is the most interesting fight on the card, in my opinion. Dan Henderson is a well-known commodity. He can bang. When he is calm, his wrestling is top-notch. He has a phenomenal chin and is very difficult to finish in any manner. That makes him a perfect measuring stick for a up-and-comer like Toquinho.
Palhares is a BTT fighter with the ground skills one would expect from that camp. He is short for a middleweight at 5'8”, but he makes up for that in width, being built like the hulk. His strength reportedly exceeds even his appearance. That amount of pure physical power, combined with a penchant for heelhooks, means that his opponents can find themselves with a knee injury in a matter of moments. He's like a cross between Masakazu Imanari and a gorilla; the bulky Brazillian dives for leglocks impressively from almost any position, and has the agility to lock them on in mid-air. His wrestling makes great use of his strength as well, mostly driving trips or lifting his opponents from a very low body clinch. While is striking is rudimentary, he unsurprisingly has power in his hands that his opponent will need to respect.
For an Olympic wrestler, Dan Henderson sure ends up on his back, in poor positions, far too often. He tends to get wild with his windmilling power punches, and often finds himself far out of position. This will work to his disadvantage against someone who can explosively capitalize on any opening. Dan realizes he wants nothing to do with Palhares on the ground, and has said that his gameplan is to force a standup fight and strike. Perhaps Dan could offer some helpful advice on gameplanning to Jason Lambert (more on that later). If Dan can indeed force a standup fight, the only outcome a reasonable person could expect is that he will wear down and beat up Palhares, likely stopping him in the second after a big right hand or five. However, Dan being Dan, I expect him to forget this plan within a minute of starting the fight. Palhares will seek to close the distance, and it's simply ingrained in Dan's bones to clinch with and take down someone that gets that close to him. Even if Dan simply grabs Toquinho to stop a takedown, Palhares will likely roll for a leglock with Dan still standing.
With Dan's greatest weakness in this fight being his tendency to get wild and out of position, Toquinho as a number of ways to lose the fight. The most obvious is that if Toquinho fails to force a ground fight in some way. Should that happen, Toquinho's standup is lacking, especially his ability to avoid shots, and Henderson is going to beat him up badly on the feet or knock him out. Furthermore Palhares is an explosive, power-centric fighter that has won most of his fights early, rarely going outside of the first round and often getting a submission within two minutes. If he cannot put Dan away, and has to keep exerting himself in big powerful efforts, he will likely gas out badly by the middle of the second round, especially given the nerves that have to come with fighting a big-name opponent on such a huge stage so early in his career. Still, I think Dan will simply be unprepared for the submission offense Palhares has.
Rousimar Palhares by heel-hook, round 1.
The current odds on this fight are:
-210 Dan Henderson
+170 Rousimar Palhares
Due to the level of uncertainty in this fight, I am uncomfortable making any bets at these odds. However, the line is moving against Palhares, and if he moves to +200 or above, I will see it as a great play.
Martin Kampmann vs. Nate Marquardt
This is another fabulous match-up. The winner of this fight will be put into a pool with Demian Maia, the winner of Toquinho/Henderson, and Yushin Okami, with the winners of the match-ups made from that pool likely being the next challenger for Anderson Silva's belt.
Kampmann is a skilled kickboxer who doesn't have a lot of KO power. He has good, not great, wrestling, and seems to be very proficient with submissions. He's also a bit undersized for the division. Marquardt is a slugger on the feet, with good power and excellent defense, although he lacks the technical acumen to go toe-to-toe with elite strikers. His wrestling is great, and his grappling is world-class, although he focuses much more on control and submission defense than on finding ways to win the fight. Marquardt, if he feels it necessary, is capable of slowing a fight down to an almost imperceptible pace with his fantastic control. Not the most interesting, but it's certainly impressive. Marquardt is also quite the physical specimen, always appearing to be in top shape, physically overpowering his opponents, and fighting hard from bell to bell.
In terms of divisional rankings and skill, these fighters are very close to each other. However, when it comes to the style matchup, they are world's apart. Marquardt has the defense and toughness not to get blown out on the feet by the low-powered strikes of Kampmann. Marquardt has a big advantage in terms of physical power, and is a better wrestler to boot, so he chooses where the fight will take place. Against most opponents, Kampmann makes up for his average wrestling by slapping on sneaky submissions, but he will be very hard pressed to find a way to finish Marquardt on the ground. Unless Marquardt does his wildman routine again and just senselessly fouls Martin over and over again, he should control every round of this fight.
Nate Marquardt by decision, 30-27.
The current odds on this fight are:
+115 Martin Kampmann
-145 Nate Marquardt
I was able to get on Marquardt at -125 when the line opened, which merited a large play. Given the style matchup, I feel that -145 is also a safe bet for a decent size play.
Kurt Pellegrino vs. Thiago Tavares
Tavares is a phenom coming off a brutal face-melting knockout loss at the unlikely hands of Matt Wiman. I really want to know what Wiman was on in that fight, because he looked like a completely different fighter and had a ridiculous amount of confidence, simply putting on a shocking performance. Still, Tavares has the gifts to make a huge splash at lightweight, if he can bounce back. He's a great wrestler, a fabulous submission grappler, and has excellent striking skills as well. He's extremely young and has time to bounce back from that loss.
Pellegrino is a talented, well-rounded gatekeeper for this division. However, he's overmatched here. Anything Kurt can do, Tavares can do better. Kurt usually wins fights via submission, and the chances of him submitting Thiago are almost nil. I have a feeling this is a loser-leaves-UFC match, and I expect Kurt will be the one leaving. The only worry for Thiago would be if he were to wear himself out with his constant aggressive attacks, and open himself up to being finished in the third. While Tavares has the skills and Kurt the lack of concentration for this fight to end in a submission, I think it's more likely that Kurt loses a decision after being soundly outclassed.
Thiago Tavares by decision, 30-27.
There are no odds released for this fight yet, but given Tavares recent defeats, I expect them to be fairly close. If you are confident that the Wiman fight was a fluke, then Thiago would be a smart bet at anything close to even. I will update this as odds are released.
Update: Tavares is at -245. Apparently bettors are not at all concerned about his loss to Wiman. Personally, I am, and I am staying away from this fight, even with Pellegrino at +195.
Tim Boetsch vs. Mike Patt
Mike Patt is a submission specialist coming into this fight as a late replacement for James Lee. Boetsch has made his UFC career as a late replacement that is always game, first filling in against David Heath and impressively dismantling him before the infamous 'barbarian toss' finish, then being overwhelmed by Matt Hamill. While he's very unrefined, Boetsch makes up for that by throwing a wide variety of strikes and putting power into all of them. He gassed badly against Matt Hamill after failing to connect with any of his shots. Hopefully he's used the additional time to improve his conditioning.
Patt's only had a few weeks to prepare for the fight, although he did fight on August 15. His problem in this fight is that Boetsch is a very strong wrestler with dangerous standup, while Patt is going to want to fight on the ground. If Patt gets into a brawling exchange with Boetsch, Tim is going to have another highlight knockout in short order.
Tim Boetsch by KO, round 1.
There are no lines out on this fight, but I don't expect it to have much value to bettors. Late replacements are usually lined up as large underdogs, and Boetsch is raw enough that he's not an absolute lock to win this fight.
Update: As expected, there's not a lot of value here. Tim is at -345 and Patt at +275. If you're a degenerate that has to bet, Patt might be acceptable as a bet that Boetsch will never develop cardio or punching accuracy.
Matt Brown vs. Dong Hyun Kim
This is a mismatch plain and simple. Matt Brown is a banger. That's what he brings to the table, and that's basically all he has to offer. Mr. Stun Gun is a talented and well-rounded fighter adept in every facet of the game. Furthermore, he's a great ratings draw in Korea (I can promise you that he will not be an unaired preliminary there), so you can expect him to continue to get favorable matchups.
It's difficult to predict exactly how this fight will end. Brown's submission defense is questionable enough that Kim, usually happy to simply pound away at his opponents, could find space to submit him. Kim also has the technical acumen to starch him on the feet. However, I think the most likely outcome is that Kim uses his judo to throw Brown into a vulnerable position, and simply beats him down for a TKO.
Dong Hyun Kim by TKO, round 1.
There are no available lines for this fight, but I would put the fair line somewhere around -300 for Dong Hyun Kim.
Update: Kim is at -275, Brown at +215. I think that's accurate. and for the record, I'm now expecting a submission.
Roan “Jucao” Carneiro vs. Ryo “Triumph United” Chonan
Chonan is coming off a hand injury, a humiliating loss to Karo Parisyan, and a layoff of nearly a year. Roan Carneiro is coming off a shocking submission loss to unheralded blue belt eye-poker Kevin Burns. In a vacuum, one would expect this fight to go much like the Parisyan fight did for Ryo. Chonan doesn't fight well off his back, and has trouble avoiding getting put there. He is especially poor when he is fighting opponents that can physically overwhelm him and dominate him on the ground. Roan can do that.
The monkey wrench in the works is the Kevin Burns brain fart and the way Jucao quit against Jon Fitch. Were those aberrations or is that going to be the story of the rest of his career? Either way, I don't think Chonan hits hard enough to make him quit, and isn't aggressive enough with submissions to catch him in a brain fart. Carneiro will simply take down and overwhelm Chonan with his size and jiu-jitsu.
Roan Carneiro by decision, 30-27.
Although lines for this fight are not up at my sportsbook, the odds on bodog are:
-105 Roan Carneiro
-125 Ryo Chonan
When this fight was scheduled for UFC 85, I was on Jucao very heavily as similar odds. I still feel he is a good bet, but I feel there is too much uncertainty around him now to risk large sums. -105 is a good play for a unit or so.
Update: I have 2 units on Carneiro at -110
Jason Lambert vs. Jason MacDonald
Jason MacDonald is managing a very quick turn around after his submission loss to Demian Maia at UFC 87, replacing an injured Jason Day. Jason Lambert is dropping to 185 pounds after going 1-3 (all knockouts) in his last four fights at 205 pounds. A real battle of the Jasons, this one. Both of these fighters are one dimensional, but talented enough at that one dimension to belong in the UFC. Macdonald is an excellent submission specialist with mediocre wrestling and slow standup. He also seems a bit fragile, collapsing under damage like Rich Franklin put on him. However, he has real stopping power in his submissionsm (80% of his wins are submission stoppages), and should give Lambert fits on the ground.
Jason Lambert was a fireplug at a very thick 205 pounds and 5'10”, and even at the lower weight class I expect him to bring a lot of power. On the feet he throws haymakers from his waist, leaving himself dangerously open to straight counter punches, which has cost him his last two fights. He's a strong wrestler and does best when he's ground and pounding opponents, where he can use his compact build and excellent power to inflict heavy damage quickly, without worrying about getting knocked out by counters.
On paper, Lambert should have this fight in the bag. If he just uses his wrestling to force a standup brawl, he should be able to hurt MacDonald quickly with his powerful punches, and simply absorb any offense MacDonald throws his way. Lambert can also utilize his stubby limbs to do extreme damage in a clinch if MacDonald tries to take him down. However, Lambert has consistently failed to fight the smart fight in the past. In fact, he's said that because of MacDonald's ground skills he's looking forward to a ground war. Lambert has a very dominating top game, based more around wrestling than jiu-jitsu, and his complete lack of a neck makes it very difficult to choke him as he's coming in for the takedown.
MacDonald's biggest weakness is that he reacts very poorly to damage, either on the feet or on the ground. While in pure grappling exchanges, he is dangerous enough to threaten someone like Demian Maia, his game falls apart when he's taking shots. Therefore, even given that Lambert won't be as powerful as he used to be, and may suffer from making the cut to 185 for the first time, I expect him to be able to simply overwhelm MacDonald with damage and win the fight.
Jason Lambert by TKO, round 2.
There are currently no lines out on this fight. While I think Lambert should be favored, he has the uncertainty surrounding him because of the new weight class and his tendency to get overexcited and leave himself exposed. If MacDonald is a significant underdog, he may be worth a small play.
Update: Each fighter is at -115. I think Lambert is good up to -130, maybe beyond. Stylistically it's the perfect fight for him and the worst for Macdonald. The question is the weight cut. I have 2u on Lambert at these odds.
Update 2: Lambert jumped to +150 and I put down another 1.66 units. Great bet if you have ain faith in Lambert's ground and pound or Macdonald's inability to soak up damage.
Wrap Up
Zuffa is trying to make a big splash in Atlanta, and this card is brimming with talent. I expect that the results of many of these fights will have fight fans buzzing for weeks about all the hot new prospects. September is going to be a great month for MMA.
My Plays
3.33u on Franklin at -225
3.33u on Marquardt at -125
1.33u on Yoshida at +225
2u on Carneiro at -110
2u on Lambert at -115
1.66u on Lambert at +150
Public Bet History
General Public Prediction Record
